Shane van Gisbergen's disruptor-level NASCAR success opens the door to more

New York Times

a day ago

Imagine you are a NASCAR team owner today with a multi-car organization, and some of your cars are currently out of the playoffs with six races remaining in the regular season. You've watched as Shane van Gisbergen has won three road course races in a month to leap your cars in the standings, get his team into the playoffs, and prepare to cash in on the accompanying extra money he'll get from finishing in the top 16 of the Cup Series points.
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Heck, the guy is third in the playoff standings as a rookie. He's tied for the series lead in wins this year! So what do you do as an owner? Would you be able to avoid being a prisoner of the moment? Because it sure would be tempting to allow van Gisbergen's success to change the calculation for how you run a race team.
Trackhouse Racing owner Justin Marks, always with a mind on being the 'disruptor,' surely has done it this time. He figured out a way to game the NASCAR playoff system in a way no one else has.
While we knew there was an opportunity for a road course ringer to win their way into the playoffs — AJ Allmendinger has long been proof of that — no road racer with this type of dominance has come along until now. You can say it's the perfect combination of van Gisbergen's background (touring cars in Australia which are a distant cousin to NASCAR's Next Gen) and timing (the Next Gen is a spec car, which gives van Gisbergen equal equipment to his competitors).
But van Gisbergen hasn't just won a single race. He's won three. And no matter what playoff format NASCAR comes up with, there's always going to be a spot in the field for multi-time race winners.
From winless to one of the top seeds in the #NASCARPlayoffs.
Talk about a swing for @shanevg97! pic.twitter.com/Fm3P3bFqaT
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) July 14, 2025
Even if they shrunk the field to 12 drivers, he'd be in. And back in the traditional 10-race Chase, NASCAR tweaked the format to allow for a 'wild card' spot (the highest driver outside the points with the most wins). So van Gisbergen, with three wins, is a playoff driver no matter how you slice it.
If you don't think teams notice this, you're lying to yourself.
'This is showing the relevance of mastering (road course) races (in) NASCAR,' former open-wheel and NASCAR driver Max Papis posted Sunday night on X. 'This will open (the) door to a variety of racers that might never had a (shot) at it.'
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That's how it always works in NASCAR. A short-track racer finds success in the Cup Series, and suddenly that's the hot area to look for prospects. An open-wheel driver successfully makes the transition and then team owners give someone else a try. Sprint car drivers show their adapability to stock cars and suddenly everyone races to find the next star from the dirt world.
Maybe now Supercars drivers are the answer. Except it's not that simple, and it doesn't give van Gisbergen the proper credit for what he's achived.
Instead of just assuming it's all because of his background or experience level, why not point to his unbelievable skill? The bottom line is team owners can hire other drivers in a similar mold, but there might be only one SVG.
Because of the opportunity for drivers like van Gisbergen — who was outside the top 32 in points last month and missed the cut for the In-Season Challenge bracket — to get into the playoffs win a single victory, road course races have lately been viewed as 'wild card' events similar to superspeedways.
Except … nah. Not anymore, with van Gisbergen such a heavy favorite. The playoff-bubble drivers are quite fortunate that he has won three in a row, because it has prevented someone like a Michael McDowell or Ty Gibbs from nabbing a spot and moving the cutoff line upward.
Check out the bubble now: Tyler Reddick is 149 points up on the cutoff and is the only 'safe' driver on points. Chris Buescher (+34), Alex Bowman (+32) and Bubba Wallace (+3) could all see their tentative spots wiped away if there were new winners from outside the top 16.
But how many more winners will there be? Let's rank the final six regular-season races by upset potential:
1. Daytona (Aug. 23): Very likely. You almost have to pencil in an upset winner here and assume that will be another new playoff entry.
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2. Watkins Glen (Aug. 10): About 50-50. Again, not really a wild card anymore, but if van Gisbergen doesn't win again, it does open the door for McDowell, Gibbs, Buescher or Allmendinger.
3. Richmond (Aug. 16): Not likely. It should be a driver from one of the big teams. Then again, remember Austin Dillon in this race last year?
4. Iowa (Aug. 3): Not likely. Probably a Christopher Bell/Kyle Larson/Ryan Blaney type win from someone already in the top 10 of the standings.
5. Dover (Sunday): No way. There hasn't been an upset at Dover in the last 20 years.
6. Indianapolis (July 27): Slim to none. Not with every team bringing their A-game for a crown jewel race.
So in reality, we're looking at maybe two more different winners? That's two spots available on points, which would lock Reddick in before Daytona and make the race between Buescher and Bowman — and possibly Wallace if he can string a few good weeks together — for the last playoff position.
Brad Keselowski last week argued there are too many road courses in NASCAR.
'NASCAR was successfully built as a primarily oval racing series,' Keselowski wrote on X. 'IMSA was built as the primary road course series in North America. IMSA will always do road racing better than NASCAR and that's OK.'
He's right. For a series that had traditionally had two per year (Sonoma and Watkins Glen) as novelties, to have expanded to six in less than a decade has felt like overkill — especially with the IMSA-like Next Gen car, which doesn't put on particularly compelling shows on those circuits.
But what is the sweet spot for NASCAR road racing? Keselowski said two to four is 'plenty enough.' We'd lean toward four, because that would perhaps cut the Roval and Circuit of the Americas (despite being a beautiful track in a great market) and leave NASCAR with: Sonoma and Watkins Glen (the traditional NASCAR road races), a street race (Chicago, San Diego, etc.) and an international race (Mexico City, Montreal, somewhere in Europe).
Any more than that starts to give road-course fatigue, when in reality most NASCAR followers are oval fans first who will tolerate the occasional right turns — as long as it's not overdone. And right now feels like it's too much.
The two teams suing NASCAR for being an illegal monopoly, 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports, filed another request for a preliminary injunction and temporary restraining order on Monday in a last-ditch attempt to retain their charter status for this weekend's race at Dover Motor Speedway. NASCAR has until Wednesday to respond, and a ruling by the district court judge could come before the Dover weekend begins.
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With a federal appeals court overruling an earlier preliminary injunction that allowed the teams to race with charter status for 2025 while their lawsuit is pending, their combined six entries would have to race as 'open' cars at Dover, barring a legal victory this week.
Further adding urgency to the matter is NASCAR's letter to the teams informing them there is interest to reassign or sell the charters, which puts the teams at risk of going out of business should they lose their charter status permanently. NASCAR has said in court it does not want to be forced into a contractual relationship with teams it does not want to do business with, which describes its current feelings about 23XI and Front Row.
While the teams have committed to running as 'open' for the remainder of the season and paying the financial difference out of pocket, being non-charter teams does not appear to be a viable model for NASCAR organizations in the long run. There's simply too much money at stake. Plus, Reddick could become a free agent as soon as this week if the charters go away; a clause in his contract requires the team to provide him with a chartered entry.
Of course, another preliminary injunction from the district court would buy more time and possibly get the teams through to the end of the season and the Dec. 1 trial date. But without that order, the teams will be facing a different reality beginning at Dover.
(Top photo of Shane van Gisbergen celebrating Sunday's win: Trinity Machan / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)