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The Diplomat
12 minutes ago
- The Diplomat
A Small State's Limited Playbook: Cambodia Exploits Thailand's Weakness
The recent leaking of a phone conversation between the Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and former Cambodian leader Hun Sen marked an unexpected twist in the escalating border dispute between the two countries. Hun Sen's subsequent prediction that there would be a new Thai prime minister in 3 months and that he knows who it would be further exacerbated bilateral tensions. Days later, the Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office amidst a pending court case seeking her dismissal. A small state managed to inflict extraordinary repercussions on the domestic situation of its larger neighbor with a phone call. Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra reasoned that Hun Sen leaked the recording in order to 'boost his popularity without regard for the impact on bilateral ties.' A poll by the National Institute of Development Administration found that most Thais hold a similar perspective. This assessment is reminiscent of regional media discussions about the role of domestic politics during the 2008-2011 conflict over the Preah Vihear temple, an eleventh-century Angkorian ruin perched on the two nations' disputed border. However, this latest development is best understood as a product of the asymmetry of power between Cambodia and its larger neighbors, and the lessons that the Cambodian government – and Hun Sen – learned from the Preah Vihear conflict. There are important differences between the 2008-2011 conflict and the current stand-off. First, the domestic political situation in Cambodia is much more stable today than in 2008. While domestic political competition was at its height during the Preah Vihear conflict, which ignited just prior to the 2008 national election, Cambodia has had no proper opposition party since the dissolution of the Cambodia National Rescue Party in 2017. The ruling Cambodian People's Party has also since undergone a gradual leadership transition to a younger generation, which culminated in Hun Sen handing the prime ministership to his son Hun Manet in 2023. As a result, the government's recent actions should not be reduced to domestic political factors. Second, Cambodia and Thailand have forged a much closer economic relationship over the last decade. Bilateral trade amounted to just $1 billion in 2006; this rose to $4.29 billion in 2024, and the two nations have set an ambitious bilateral trade target of $15 billion by 2027. Similarly, in 2006, there were an estimated 180,000 Cambodian workers in Thailand. In 2024, this had risen to 1.2 million, according to Cambodian government estimates. Remittances from the 1.38 million Cambodian migrants working abroad amounted to $2.95 billion last year. What then explains Cambodia's – or Hun Sen's – willingness to jeopardize such a pivotal economic relationship? While the border issues faded from regional and international attention after 2011, the border has remained a top national security concern for the Cambodian government. Notably, the 2013 judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on the Preah Vihear temple area, which granted the temple and its surrounding promontory to Cambodia, was never formally implemented. Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra denied accepting the court's decision and insisted on parliamentary approval of the ICJ judgment, which has not been passed to date. In an indication of the fragile situation at the border, Thai officials did not publicly discuss the possibility of reopening the border checkpoint at the Preah Vihear temple until last year. Negotiations over their overlapping claims area in the Gulf of Thailand resumed in January 2023, but this only reignited the dormant dispute over the island of Koh Kood in the Gulf of Thailand. Cambodia's willingness to jeopardize its economic relationship with Thailand over the border dispute needs to be viewed in the context of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The invasion highlighted the vulnerability of small states with larger neighbors and their apparent dependence on international law for survival. Cambodia co-sponsored the United Nations General Assembly resolution condemning Russia's annexation of four Ukrainian regions in 2022. Explaining Cambodia's decision, Hun Sen stated, 'If our neighbors did that to us, would we get angry? We must stand for the principle of law.' On June 15, the Cambodian government submitted an official letter to the ICJ asking it to resolve disputes over four areas of the border with Thailand. However, Thailand has rejected any ICJ involvement, saying that it would prefer to resolve the disputes bilaterally. Accordingly, the Cambodian government cannot solely rely on international law to manage the current dispute. A small state such as Cambodia has limited options for responding to a national security crisis. Even though the country has been increasing its annual military spending, the Thai military retains an overall advantage in relation to the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces. A small state with limited material capabilities thus might resort to an unconventional strategy, such as leaking a phone recording, to influence the trajectory of an escalating dispute. There was precedent for this strategy: leaking phone recordings has long been a mainstay of Hun Sen's approach to Cambodian domestic politics. To make sense of this strategy in the realm of foreign policy, it is important to consider an important lesson that the Cambodian leadership learned about its relationship with Thailand in the wake of Preah Vihear. This lesson concerned the risk that Thai domestic politics were highly sensitive to anything concerning the Cambodian border and could negatively impact Cambodia's security and economy. Up until the outbreak of the conflict in 2008, the Cambodian government was preoccupied with integrating into the global and regional economy and recovering from decades of conflict. After the Khmer Rouge surrendered at their last stronghold in the Preah Vihear area, the government turned its attention to preserving its cultural heritage in the 2000s. It submitted a letter to UNESCO proposing the temple as a World Heritage Site in January 2006. Pre-occupied with internal affairs, the Cambodian leadership might not have anticipated the extent to which Thai domestic politics would react negatively to UNESCO's decision to list the Preah Vihear temple as a World Heritage Site in July 2008. It also might not have anticipated that the inscription would touch off a border conflict, especially after joining Thailand in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1999. The Preah Vihear conflict demonstrated the considerable constraint that domestic politics imposed on the actions of the Thai government in its relations with Cambodia, particularly regarding the border. From this perspective, leaking the phone conversation could be a means of exploiting a key Thai weakness: the country's fractious domestic politics. It remains to be seen if this strategy will pay off or backfire for the small state, but it at least has shifted the focus of the discussion onto Thai domestic politics for now. Similarly, Cambodia's submission of an official letter to the ICJ shifts the attention to the Thai side, and whether it plans to adhere to international law. Whether or not all of this works out remains to be seen, but it's a sign that, confronted with limited resources, a small state might choose to deploy unconventional strategies.
The Wire
13 minutes ago
- The Wire
Thailand's Judiciary Is Flexing Its Muscles, Yet Dozens of Activists Are at the Mercy of the Courts
Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is currently feeling the sharp end of the country's powerful judiciary. On July 2, 2025, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Paetongtarn from office as a result of a leaked phone conversation in which she was heard disparaging Thailand's military and showing deference to former the prime minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen, despite an ongoing border dispute between the two countries. Initially set for 14 days, many onlookers believe the court's suspension is likely to become permanent. Meanwhile, far from the prime minister's office is Arnon Nampa, another Thai national whose future is at the mercy of the Thai judiciary – in this case, the Criminal Court. Arnon, a lawyer and internationally recognised human rights defender, is one of 32 political prisoners imprisoned over 'lèse majesté,' or insulting the Thai monarchy. He is currently serving a sentence of nearly 30 years for a speech questioning the monarchy during pro-democracy protests in 2020. Unless he is both acquitted in his remaining cases and his current convictions are overturned on appeal, Arnon will likely spend the rest of his life in prison. The plights of Paetongtarn and Arnon may seem distant. But as a historian of Thai politics, I see the cases as connected by a judiciary using the law and its power to diminish the prospects for democracy in Thailand and constrain the ability of its citizens to participate freely in society. Familiar Troubles The Shinawatra family is no stranger to the reach of both the Thai military and the country's courts. Paetongtarn is the third of her family to be prime minister – and could become the third to be ousted. Her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, was removed in a 2006 military coup. Her aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, was ousted prior to the May 22, 2014, coup. In common with past coups, the juntas who fomented them were shielded from the law, with none facing prosecution. For now, it is unclear whether Paetongtarn's suspension is the precursor to another coup, the dissolution of parliament and new elections, or a reshuffle of the cabinet. But what is clear is that the Constitutional Court's intervention is one of several in which the nine appointed judges are playing a critical role in the future of Thai democracy. Protecting the Monarchy The root of the judiciary's power can be found in the way the modern Thai nation was set up nearly 100 years ago. On June 24, 1932, Thailand transitioned from an absolute monarchy to a constitutional monarchy. Since then, the country has experienced 13 coups, as the country has shifted from democracy to dictatorship and back again. But throughout, the monarchy has remained a constant presence – protected by Article 112 of the Criminal Code, which defines the crime and penalty of lese majesté: 'Whoever defames, insults, or threatens the king, queen, heir-apparent or regent shall be subject to three-to-fifteen years imprisonment.' The law is widely feared among dissidents in Thailand both because it is interpreted broadly to include any speech or action that is not laudatory and innocent verdicts are rare. Although Article 112 has been law since 1957, it was rarely used until after the 2006 coup. Since then, cases have risen steadily and reached record levels following a youth-led movement for democracy in 2020. At least 281 people have been, or are currently being, prosecuted for alleged violation of Article 112, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights. Challenging the Status Quo The 2020 youth-led movement for democracy was sparked by the Constitutional Court's dissolution of the progressive Future Forward Party at the beginning of that year, the disappearance of a Thai dissident in exile in Cambodia, and economic problems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In protests in Bangkok and in provinces across the country, they called for a new election, a new constitution and an end to state repression of dissent. On August 3, 2020, Nampa added another demand: The monarchy must be openly discussed and questioned. Without addressing such a key, unquestionable institution in the nation, Arnon argued, the struggle for democracy would inevitably fail. This message resonated with many Thai citizens, and despite the fearsome Article 112, protests grew throughout the last months of 2020. Students at Thammasat University, the centre of student protest since the 1950s, expanded Arnon's call into a 10-point set of demands for reform of the monarchy. Making it clear that they did not aim to abolish the monarchy, the students' proposal aimed to clarify the monarchy's economic, political and military role and make it truly constitutional. As the protests began to seem unstoppable, with tens of thousands joining, the police began cracking down on demonstrations. Many were arrested for violating anti-COVID-19 measures and other minor laws. By late November 2020, however, Article 112 charges began to be brought against Arnon and other protest leaders for their peaceful speech. In September 2023, Arnon was convicted in his first case, and he has been behind bars since. He is joined by other political prisoners, whose numbers grow weekly as their cases move through the judicial process. Capricious Courts Unlike Arnon, Paetongtarn Shinawatra is not facing prison. But the Constitutional Court's decision to suspend her from her position as prime minister because of a leaked recording of an indiscreet telephone conversation is, to many legal minds, a capricious response that has the effect of short-circuiting the democratic process. So too, I believe, does bringing the weight of the law against Arnon and other political prisoners in Thailand who remain behind bars as the current political turmoil plays out. Tyrell Haberkorn, Professor of Southeast Asian Studies, University of Wisconsin-Madison.
Straits Times
29 minutes ago
- Straits Times
Thailand confident of securing lower US tariff with trade offers
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox The US was Thailand's largest goods export market in 2024, accounting for about 18 per cent of the country's total shipments. BANGKOK - Thailand remains optimistic about securing a lower tariff rate than the 36 per cent levy announced by President Donald Trump based on an offer to bring down import tax on most US goods to zero, according to Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira. The South-east Asian nation expects to wrap up trade negotiations before the Aug 1 deadline set by the US, Mr Pichai told a local television channel on July 8 . Mr Trump has set the levy on Thailand without taking into account its revised proposals to increase market access by removing tariff and non-tariff barriers on a number of goods, he said. In a last-minute bid to avoid the punitive tariff, Thailand had submitted a revised proposal to the US on July 6 to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce its US$46 billion (S$58.7 billion) trade surplus by 70 per cent within five years. The offers included greater market access for US farm and industrial goods, as well as increased purchases of energy and Boeing jets. The latest Thai proposal 'is a good deal for the US and Thailand will lower import tariffs on 90 per cent of US products', Mr Pichai said, adding he was 'a bit shocked' by the letter setting the tariff unchanged at 36 per cent. The US was Thailand's largest goods export market in 2024 , accounting for about 18 per cent of the country's total shipments. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. World 25% on Japan and Malaysia, 40% on Laos: Trump's tariff letters to Asia add pressure for deals by Aug 1 Singapore Grab to trial driverless shuttle for staff between Media Circle office and one-north MRT station Singapore Ong Beng Seng's new pre-trial conference date set for July 23 Multimedia 'I suspect he's cheating': She finds proof when spouses stray Singapore MRT services resume on 5-station stretch of North-South Line after track fault Asia Thai authorities vow crackdown on cannabis-infused products after toddler hospitalised World Netanyahu says he nominated Trump for Nobel Peace Prize Singapore Fastest charger to be added to Singapore's EV charging network by Q4 in 2025 Thailand's exports have surged about 15 per cent in the first five months of the year, driven by front-loading of orders following a 90-day pause in high tariffs proposed by the Trump administration. Clinching a lower US tariff rate is key to insulating Thailand's trade-dependent economy from further downside. Growth is already under pressure from South-east Asia's highest household debt and sluggish domestic consumption. Thai officials have estimated that tariff levels of 36 per cent could shave of at least one percentage point off gross domestic product this year. Investors have also been concerned by political turmoil following the court-ordered suspension of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra over alleged ethical misconduct in handling a border dispute with Cambodia. BLOOMBERG
