The Extensive Process Of How A Hurricane Forecast Comes Together

Yahoo

5 days ago

As summer ramps up, a lot of people start bracing for one of the scariest weather threats: hurricanes.
So, how can you be prepared? Most people flock to the National Hurricane Center every week to see if there are any new storms. However, this website has a plethora of information and can be a little overwhelming if you aren't checking the forecast every day like we do.
When people think of hurricane forecasting, they usually think about the National Hurricane Center's forecast cone, but it actually goes a lot deeper than that. To begin, let's start with when the map has no named storms on it.
Monitoring the Tropics: Hurricane experts check a variety of data each and every day, monitoring for any ramp-ups in tropical activity.
We're looking for the ingredients to come together to create a tropical system and allow it to grow.
If you have heard of the European or the American model, well done! There are many others, and all of these models can be used to check for long-range forecasts in our neighboring oceans. This is where you'll find the first hints of tropical activity, often before clouds even form.
While forecasts get less accurate the further out you go, these long-range forecasts help to give just a glimpse of what could be coming in the next couple of weeks.
(MORE: Why Long-Range Model Forecasts for the Tropics Can't Often Be Trusted: A Case Study)
Clouds are now forming and it is time to take some observations to form a forecast.
In the ocean, buoys are constantly measuring current conditions like pressure, temperature, wind gusts and wave activity. Overhead, satellites are watching clouds, winds, dust and moisture.
If we think something is beginning to brew, it's time to send in the pros.
The most epic are hurricane hunters, who have the awesome responsibility of flying into the storm to get the most dynamic and up-to-date conditions of the storm. If the storm has an eye, they can even fly in the eye!
We've got some action! Once a system begins to show signs of organization and more information is needed, the National Hurricane Center gives it a loose name based on its location, its latitude and chance of formation. It is at that point that the NHC will give it the name 'Invest'. For example, Invest 94L would describe an area of interest in the Atlantic Ocean. There are a few dozen such storms each year.
Once they go invest, specific model forecasts are run for the system. Perhaps you have heard of the term spaghetti models.
While tempting, these models are not available at Olive Garden.
So what are these spaghetti models? They are a diverse mix of models that the NHC uses to forecast storms. There are many different types of models that the NHC uses, ranging from ones that create forecasts to ones that examine historical data.
(MORE: What You Should Know About Spaghetti Models)
These make up some of the ingredients for your eventual meal.
The Forecast: The final dish presented to you from spaghetti models and forecasters at the NHC is the iconic forecast cone of uncertainty.
These forecasts are given to storms that range from a nearly-formed tropical depression to a major hurricane and show the likely direction of the center of the storm over the next five days.
The forecast is most accurate over the first day, so the cone is narrowest there. It then widens, the further out you go in time, as historical errors climb, hence the shape of an ice cream cone.
The storm is not expected to travel right down the middle of this cone, but could move along one side of the cone or the other. Also, the cone doesn't actually show the size of the storm, so regardless of where the center is, people can see impacts far beyond the cone's borders.
(MORE: What The Cone Means And What It Doesn't)
Changing forecasts: Forecasts are constantly changing as the storm interacts with the atmospheric conditions in and around the oceans.
There are steering currents that can change, potentially leading to shifts in where landfall can be. And should atmospheric conditions change to be more favorable for development before the storm's arrival, a hurricane can explode into a monster storm in a matter of hours in a process known as rapid intensification.
Meteorologists are constantly running models and updating forecasts, working tirelessly to ensure that people are given the most up-to-date information as storms develop from areas of interest to full-fledged hurricanes.
Robert Shackelford received his undergraduate and master's degree from the University of Georgia studying meteorology and experimenting with alternative hurricane forecasting tools.