
ECB Warns of Impact of Heat Waves on Inflation, Economic Growth
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The link between heat and key economic indicators such as inflation and gross domestic product is too important to ignore, according to European Central Bank Executive Board member Frank Elderson.
'We have progressed in understanding that accounting for the climate and nature crises is relevant,' Elderson said in an interview. 'If you think about the exceptionally hot summer of 2022, food-price inflation was up between 0.4 and 0.9 percentage points' and 'there was quite a measurable hit on German GDP.'
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ASSYSTEM: Half-year liquidity contract statement on June 30th, 2025
HALF-YEAR LIQUIDITY CONTRACT STATEMENT Paris, July 4th, 2025 Under the liquidity contract entered into between ASSYSTEM S.A. (ISIN: FR0000074148 - ASY) and Kepler Chevreux, the following resources appeared on the liquidity account on June 30th, 2025: - 11,441 shares- € 802,309.97 - Number of executions on buy side on semester: 2,444- Number of executions on sell side on semester: 2,323- Traded volume on buy side on semester: 80,317 shares for € 3,114,213.43- Traded volume on sell side on semester: 76,852 shares for € 2,992,189.41 As a reminder:• the following resources appeared on the last half year statement on December 31st, 2024 on the liquidity account: - 7,976 shares- € 918,245.93 - Number of executions on buy side on semester: 2,588- Number of executions on sell side on semester: 2,565- Traded volume on buy side on semester: 84,788 shares for € 3,802,873.09- Traded volume on sell side on semester: 80,214 shares for € 3,622,741.33 • the following resources appeared on the liquidity account when the activity started: - 22,970 shares- € 923,444.41 The liquidity agreement complies with AMF Decision n° 2021-01 dated on June 22nd, 2021, introducing liquidity agreements on equity securities as permitted market practice. ABOUT ASSYSTEM Assystem, one of the world's leading independent nuclear engineering companies, is committed to accelerating the energy transition. With more than 55 years of experience in highly regulated sectors with stringent safety and security constraints, the Group provides engineering and project management services as well as digital solutions and services to optimise the performance of complex infrastructure assets throughout their life cycle. In its 12 countries of operation, Assystem's 7,500 experts are supporting energy transition. To achieve an affordable low carbon energy supply, Assystem is committed to the development of low carbon electricity (nuclear, renewables and electricity grids) and clean hydrogen. The Group is also helping drive the use of low carbon electricity in industrial sectors such as transportation. Assystem forms part of the Euronext Tech Leaders, CAC Small, CAC Mid & Small, CAC Industrials, CAC All-Tradable and CAC All-Share indices. To find out more visit CONTACT Malène Korvin CFO Tél : +33 (0)1 41 25 29 00 Buy Side Sell Side Number of executions Number of shares Traded volume in EUR Number of executions Number of shares Traded volume in EUR Total 2,444 80,317 3,114,213.43 2,323 76,852 2,992,189.41 01/02/2025 17 550 25,074.50 - - - 01/03/2025 19 691 30,763.32 25 750 33,622.50 01/06/2025 19 521 23,273.07 2 52 2,324.40 01/07/2025 13 278 12,273.70 5 176 7,789.76 01/08/2025 30 710 30,956.00 16 576 25,205.76 01/09/2025 25 626 26,861.66 2 100 4,340.00 01/10/2025 21 689 29,158.48 14 486 20,810.52 01/13/2025 33 950 38,437.00 2 50 2,090.00 01/14/2025 40 1,025 39,708.50 25 559 21,918.39 01/15/2025 64 1,936 69,192.64 13 150 5,472.00 01/16/2025 7 300 10,890.00 58 1,575 58,243.50 01/17/2025 9 300 11,244.00 12 425 15,988.50 01/20/2025 36 1,250 46,300.00 26 858 31,891.86 01/21/2025 36 1,251 45,936.72 41 1,200 44,232.00 01/22/2025 28 699 25,478.55 14 520 19,000.80 01/23/2025 24 1,051 38,498.13 34 1,177 43,384.22 01/24/2025 20 799 29,003.70 20 775 28,256.50 01/27/2025 15 449 16,208.90 17 650 23,608.00 01/28/2025 3 100 3,690.00 13 450 16,740.00 01/29/2025 13 350 13,055.00 8 400 14,984.00 01/30/2025 22 602 22,671.32 22 800 30,288.00 01/31/2025 1 27 1,023.30 20 741 28,461.81 02/03/2025 24 724 27,497.52 20 600 22,998.00 02/04/2025 3 100 3,895.00 17 425 16,600.50 02/05/2025 21 750 29,205.00 3 150 5,895.00 02/06/2025 14 450 17,460.00 16 650 25,382.50 02/07/2025 21 700 27,734.00 30 1,025 40,907.75 02/10/2025 15 528 21,056.64 21 650 26,110.50 02/11/2025 14 372 14,686.56 6 200 7,920.00 02/12/2025 29 1,200 48,312.00 60 2,100 85,533.00 02/13/2025 1 50 2,110.00 20 864 36,659.52 02/14/2025 15 650 28,158.00 21 674 29,319.00 02/17/2025 17 700 29,820.00 10 350 15,015.00 02/18/2025 34 1,190 50,682.10 46 1,401 59,920.77 02/19/2025 55 1,800 74,934.00 6 200 8,626.00 02/20/2025 5 125 5,097.50 4 75 3,084.75 02/21/2025 9 350 14,276.50 7 274 11,255.92 02/24/2025 8 300 12,207.00 11 376 15,385.92 02/25/2025 22 600 24,114.00 10 350 14,175.00 02/26/2025 18 650 25,857.00 17 600 23,964.00 02/27/2025 19 600 23,538.00 6 300 11,856.00 02/28/2025 7 150 5,955.00 22 513 20,596.95 03/03/2025 48 1,700 69,428.00 34 1,403 58,140.32 03/04/2025 32 950 37,886.00 21 750 30,157.50 03/05/2025 6 200 8,110.00 27 1,044 42,501.24 03/06/2025 16 350 14,304.50 24 890 36,730.30 03/07/2025 35 1,200 49,500.00 19 707 29,333.43 03/10/2025 18 650 26,962.00 26 943 39,181.65 03/11/2025 36 1,000 40,970.00 11 400 16,624.00 03/12/2025 16 594 23,973.84 14 550 22,385.00 03/13/2025 16 450 17,865.00 2 50 2,010.00 03/14/2025 13 364 14,461.72 12 600 23,904.00 03/17/2025 22 622 24,892.44 27 900 36,153.00 03/18/2025 6 150 6,162.00 22 700 28,840.00 03/19/2025 54 2,161 82,809.52 34 1,138 44,564.08 03/20/2025 52 1,393 51,554.93 8 400 15,220.00 03/21/2025 14 458 16,268.16 1 50 1,800.00 03/24/2025 34 1,346 45,279.44 3 134 4,695.36 03/25/2025 12 384 12,506.88 12 350 11,480.00 03/26/2025 13 350 11,448.50 8 300 9,879.00 03/27/2025 17 570 18,268.50 20 629 20,322.99 03/28/2025 9 400 13,120.00 14 621 20,499.21 03/31/2025 20 650 20,852.00 5 188 6,063.00 04/01/2025 4 89 2,888.94 11 412 13,385.88 04/02/2025 8 211 6,836.40 32 650 21,515.00 04/03/2025 19 600 20,118.00 18 700 23,632.00 04/04/2025 37 1,400 46,102.00 13 600 20,046.00 04/07/2025 48 2,245 68,090.85 35 2,100 64,323.00 04/08/2025 1 50 1,590.00 30 1,150 37,731.50 04/09/2025 45 1,309 43,628.97 19 850 28,560.00 04/10/2025 14 600 20,298.00 42 776 26,671.12 04/11/2025 7 251 8,458.70 8 251 8,508.90 04/14/2025 31 1,000 33,980.00 31 799 27,357.76 04/15/2025 12 350 11,809.00 9 400 13,560.00 04/16/2025 6 300 10,149.00 15 650 22,282.00 04/17/2025 17 523 17,782.00 3 100 3,445.00 04/22/2025 16 626 20,889.62 20 600 20,100.00 04/23/2025 - - - 27 890 30,607.10 04/24/2025 12 400 13,844.00 6 300 10,485.00 04/25/2025 34 950 33,164.50 37 1,450 51,025.50 04/28/2025 5 150 5,410.50 18 550 19,992.50 04/29/2025 2 50 1,870.00 9 250 9,355.00 04/30/2025 17 650 24,635.00 20 750 28,507.50 05/02/2025 11 400 15,344.00 11 450 17,361.00 05/05/2025 4 200 7,790.00 15 500 19,530.00 05/06/2025 8 350 13,891.50 29 1,143 45,994.32 05/07/2025 14 462 18,493.86 7 250 10,020.00 05/08/2025 18 600 24,102.00 18 700 28,203.00 05/09/2025 21 520 21,018.40 22 541 21,932.14 05/12/2025 34 1,498 59,156.02 34 1,350 53,838.00 05/13/2025 22 650 26,143.00 15 559 22,594.78 05/14/2025 19 600 23,874.00 11 300 11,985.00 05/15/2025 28 735 29,230.95 29 850 33,898.00 05/16/2025 13 400 15,952.00 14 500 19,970.00 05/19/2025 15 381 15,137.13 6 250 9,950.00 05/20/2025 1 50 2,000.00 27 1,024 41,707.52 05/21/2025 21 550 22,731.50 20 383 15,875.35 05/22/2025 9 400 16,420.00 27 700 29,001.00 05/23/2025 20 950 39,387.00 24 700 29,155.00 05/26/2025 20 750 31,185.00 28 650 27,111.50 05/27/2025 19 800 32,512.00 40 1,050 43,312.50 05/28/2025 11 328 13,667.76 6 250 10,445.00 05/29/2025 16 452 18,970.44 23 551 23,158.53 05/30/2025 14 370 15,469.70 10 266 11,166.68 06/02/2025 19 700 28,588.00 - - - 06/03/2025 14 359 14,736.95 27 883 36,503.22 06/04/2025 6 91 3,771.95 8 203 8,515.85 06/05/2025 28 905 38,218.15 40 1,297 55,381.90 06/06/2025 68 2,335 96,412.15 18 690 28,628.10 06/09/2025 29 868 35,188.72 12 470 19,138.40 06/10/2025 15 435 17,587.05 16 287 11,657.94 06/11/2025 16 662 26,837.48 28 885 36,019.50 06/12/2025 15 600 24,474.00 26 699 28,659.00 06/13/2025 24 800 32,688.00 26 816 33,415.20 06/16/2025 18 550 23,045.00 29 833 34,961.01 06/17/2025 27 1,000 42,080.00 34 1,150 48,599.00 06/18/2025 20 737 30,651.83 2 100 4,180.00 06/19/2025 15 413 16,842.14 2 51 2,091.51 06/20/2025 30 611 24,831.04 22 751 30,625.78 06/23/2025 18 460 18,694.40 15 401 16,336.74 06/24/2025 22 800 32,584.00 24 729 29,794.23 06/25/2025 18 532 21,700.28 17 519 21,284.19 06/26/2025 15 516 20,923.80 21 550 22,429.00 06/27/2025 5 135 5,547.15 32 877 36,483.20 06/30/2025 14 523 21,871.86 19 472 19,842.88 Attachment PR Half-year liquidity contract statement 04.07.2025Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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A Major Currency Outpaces Bitcoin With More Possible Momentum Ahead: Macro Markets
Welcome to CoinDesk's weekly macro column, where analyst Omkar Godbole writes about his macro observations and analysis in the broader markets. The views expressed in this column aren't investment advice.A major currency pair, which is barely considered volatile, is now rivaling notoriously explosive bitcoin's price performance—unimaginable, right? Not anymore. In June, EUR/USD, the most liquid FX pair in the world, rose nearly 4% to 1.1786, outperforming bitcoin's (BTC) 2.4% gain. Remarkably, both assets are nearly neck and neck in year-to-date performance, each up over 13%. Some observers believe EUR/USD still has room to run higher, a positive sign for EUR-pegged stablecoins, which have already benefited from the single currency's surge. "EUR/USD could face resistance probably in the 1.22/1.23 area," Marc Ostwald, chief economist and global strategist at ADM Investor Services International, said, explaining that the focus is on Germany loosening its debt brake, which is seen as "growth positive by most people." The term U.S. exceptionalism—the relative attractiveness of dollar assets, underpinned by the fiscal spending of the Biden era—has historically helped the greenback. However, that story is now showing signs of reversal under President Donald Trump's second term. Concerns over widening budget deficits and soaring debt-servicing costs have sparked what some now describe as a budding "fiscal scare." Now, the exceptionalism narrative might be shifting to Germany. That's because early this year, Germany announced a landmark fiscal plan comprising an exemption of defence spending (over 1% of GDP) from the debt brake, a 500 billion euro infrastructure fund to be deployed over 12 years, and 100 billion of which will be immediately routed to the Climate Transition Fund. The remaining amount is for additional infrastructure investments, with 300 billion euros for the federal government and 100 billion euros for state governments. Lastly, the plan will allow state governments to run annual deficits of up to 0.35% of GDP. The fiscal package's direct impact on German GDP is expected to be felt from next year, and it's expected to be sticky beyond 2027, with positive spillover effects for other Eurozone nations. This is now changing the conversation to European assets, rather than U.S. "The initial condition was a huge overweight in USD and assets, but now it looks like portfolio allocation toward European equities, with Germany stepping up defence and infrastructure spending," Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets, said in an email. The focus on growth potential explains why the U.S.-German yield (rate) differential, as an indicator of exchange rate, has fallen to the back burner. The chart below shows that the historical positive correlation between EUR/USD and the two-year German-U.S. bond yield differential has broken down since late March. Moreover, higher yields in the U.S. no longer represent a positive economic outlook but are a necessity to fund deficits. "The dollar can seem to be decoupled from rates, but I think that another way to frame it is that the U.S. needs to offer a higher premium to compensate for the policy uncertainty and seeming desire for a weaker dollar," Chandler noted. A potential shift in the yield differential narrative is putting the euro back in the spotlight. Market participants are bracing for a return to fundamentals—particularly rate spreads—yet the outlook may not bode well for the greenback. "To some extent the rate differential outlook for EUR/USD is not favourable for the USD, if one assumes that the ECB is largely done with rate cuts (perhaps one more), while the Fed could well cut rates up to 125 bps over the next 12-18 months, if U.S. growth continues to be sluggish," ADM's Ostwald said. The European Central Bank (ECB) has delivered eight quarter-point cuts in a year, yet the euro has rallied against the U.S. dollar. From here on, the focus will be on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts. So far, Powell has held rates steady at 4.25% despite President Trump's repeated calls for ultra-low borrowing costs. In other words, the rate differential is likely to widen in favor of the EUR. Historically, the USD has offered a natural hedge to foreign investors in U.S. stocks. So naturally, as the positive correlation between U.S. stocks and the dollar has broken, European pension funds—which account for nearly half of foreign holdings in U.S. equities—and other investors are forced to increase their FX hedging to protect portfolio returns against dollar weakness. According to market observers, this FX hedging strategy could continue to propel the euro higher in the near term. Let's put the hedging strategy in context. Imagine a European fund with $10,000 worth of investments in the U.S. If the US dollar (USD) gets weaker compared to the euro (EUR), the fund's investment loses value when converted back to euros. To hedge against this currency risk, the fund might consider hedging part of that investment by taking short bets on the dollar via forwards, futures or options, adding to the dollar's bearish momentum. "Using the monthly Danish pension flow data as a European proxy, April saw a spike higher in the FX hedging ratio from 61% in January to 74% in April. We've seen 80% levels before, so there is room for higher and also more consistent FX hedging for all European investors, that will naturally see EUR selloffs on newsflow faded on a day-to-day basis until that flow peaks. We're not there yet, but we're a lot closer," Jordan Rochester, head of FICC strategy at Mizhou, recently explained in a LinkedIn post. According to Financial Analyst Enric A., fewer than 20% of European institutions currently hedge their USD exposure, and they will have to do more to stabilize portfolios, which might lead to further USD bearish momentum. "Higher hedge ratios = more EUR buying, more USD selling," Enric said on LinkedIn. And to top it off, hedging by other regions' funds may have had the same effect. Chandler cited BIS data while highlighting hedging by Asian funds. Bottom line: As macro narratives shift toward potential U.S. Fed easing and hedging dynamics exert pressure on the greenback, EUR/USD may remain buoyant despite eurozone growth in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data