How Texas redistricting could prove risky for Republicans
Why it matters: Everything starts with Texas. The push to add up to five GOP House seats here is sparking a chain reaction as the parties fight tooth-and-nail over the majority.
Redistricting is usually done after the census, next scheduled for 2030.
State of play: Midterm elections are typically a tougher playing field for the party in power. Democrats are eyeing taking back the House in 2026.
If safe Republican districts in Texas are diluted with Democratic voters to build Republican districts elsewhere, then reliable seats could turn competitive for Republicans, Jon Taylor, department chair and political science professor at the University of Texas at San Antonio, tells Axios.
Between the lines: Gov. Greg Abbott and other state Republicans were at first hesitant to take up the issue, the Texas Tribune reported. After President Trump called Abbott, it appeared on the agenda of the special session that started a week ago.
What they're saying:"Given the kind of election that's taking place, given the issues that may be in play, they may be in for an unpleasant surprise," Taylor says of the Republican Party.
"They are putting everything at risk in this special session by putting this on the agenda."
Zoom in: The Cook Political Report says the most obvious targets are the 28th and 34th congressional districts in South Texas, represented by Democratic U.S. Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, respectively.
Taylor also thinks Republicans could "radically" redraw the 35th Congressional District, represented by Democratic U.S. Rep. Greg Casar, which runs from East Austin to San Antonio along Interstate 35.
Other potential targets: the 32nd and 37th districts, represented by Democratic U.S. Reps. Julie Johnson of the Dallas area and Lloyd Doggett of Austin.
Republicans who could gain Democratic voters include U.S. Reps. Tony Gonzales, whose sprawling district extends from San Antonio to El Paso, and Chip Roy, whose district encompasses much of the conservative Hill Country but includes portions of Austin and San Antonio.
What we're watching: Republicans are looking to South Texas after Trump performed well with Latino voters there.
But Taylor says it isn't a given that they will continue to prefer Republicans.
Hispanic adults give Trump's handling of immigration a lower approval rating (21%) than the national rating (35%), per a Gallup poll conducted in June.
Zoom out: Republicans in other states, including Ohio and Missouri, are now looking to redraw their maps to gain an advantage.
Democrats, led by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, have vowed to punch back by drawing roughly as many new Democratic seats.
The bottom line: There's already a warning sign for Republicans as they weigh redistricting.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Insider
23 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Trump considers skipping G20 summit, slams South Africa's 'very bad' policies
United States President Donald Trump has indicated he may not attend the upcoming G20 summit scheduled to take place in South Africa this November, citing his disapproval of the country's policies. President Trump may skip the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa due to policy disagreements. Tensions between the U.S. and South Africa have escalated over issues including land reform laws, foreign policy stances, and relations with BRICS nations. Trump's potential absence highlights growing diplomatic friction, which could impact U.S.–Africa relations long-term. Trump's remarks come amid a deepening strain in U.S.–South Africa relations, fueled by long-standing disagreements over a range of issues including South Africa's land reform laws, its pro-Palestinian stance in the Israel–Gaza conflict, and its growing alignment with BRICS nations. These tensions have prompted the Trump administration to impose multiple sanctions on South Africa, including a 30% tariff on selected South African goods, a move that has further deteriorated bilateral relations. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said, 'I think maybe I'll send somebody else because I've had a lot of problems with South Africa. They have some very bad policies.' South African officials have yet to issue a formal response to the statement. However, analysts warn that Trump's comments could escalate diplomatic friction ahead of the summit, which many see as a pivotal opportunity for developing countries to press for more inclusive global governance. Trump's policy dispute with South Africa Since the start of his second term in 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified tensions with South Africa, reviving a diplomatic chill driven by ideological rifts and competing global alliances. His administration has openly criticized South Africa's growing ties with Russia and China, its opposition to Western foreign policy, and its leadership role in BRICS and the Global South. The strain deepened earlier this year when US Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio declined an invitation to a G20 preparatory meeting in Johannesburg, citing South Africa's alignment with anti-Western regimes. Soon after, the White House instructed the U.S. Embassy in Pretoria to avoid making logistical arrangements for the G20 summit, signaling a potential boycott unless South Africa altered its stance. The friction reflects Washington's broader frustration with Pretoria's increasingly independent foreign policy, including support for Palestine, resistance to U.S.-backed sanctions, and its decision to host Russian President Vladimir Putin despite an ICC warrant. With the G20 summit now in focus, Trump's administration sees South Africa as part of a rising bloc challenging U.S. influence. What began as diplomatic friction has grown into a full-blown policy standoff that could redefine U.S.–Africa relations for years to come. Trump's potential absence from the summit could have diplomatic implications, as it would mark a rare snub of a major global economic forum hosted on African soil.
Yahoo
40 minutes ago
- Yahoo
UN investigator says US sanctions over her criticism of Israel will seriously impact her life
Italy Israel Palestinians ROME (AP) — An independent U.N. investigator and outspoken critic of Israel's policies in Gaza says that the sanctions recently imposed on her by the Trump administration will have serious impacts on her life and work. Francesca Albanese, the U.N. special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza, is a member of a group of experts chosen by the 47-member U.N. Human Rights Council in Geneva. She is tasked with probing human rights abuses in the Palestinian territories and has been vocal about what she has described as the 'genocide' by Israel against Palestinians in Gaza. Both Israel and the United States, which provides military support to its close ally, have strongly denied that accusation. Washington has decried what it called a 'campaign of political and economic warfare' against the U.S. and Israel, and earlier this month imposed sanctions on Albanese, following an unsuccessful U.S. pressure campaign to force the international body to remove her from her post. 'It's very serious to be on the list of the people sanctioned by the U.S.,' Albanese told The Associated Press in Rome on Tuesday, adding that individuals sanctioned by the U.S. cannot have financial interactions or credit cards with any American bank. When used in 'a political way," she said the sanctions 'are harmful, dangerous.' 'My daughter is American. I've been living in the U.S. and I have some assets there. So of course, it's going to harm me,' Albanese said. 'What can I do? I did everything I did in good faith, and knowing that, my commitment to justice is more important than personal interests.' The sanctions have not dissuaded Albanese from her work — or her viewpoints — and in July, she published a new report, focused on what she defines as 'Israel's genocidal economy' in Palestinian territories. 'There's an entire ecosystem that has allowed Israel's occupation to thrive. And then it has also morphed into an economy of genocide,' she said. In the conclusion of the report, Albanese calls for sanctions against Israel and prosecution of 'architects, executors and profiteers of this genocide.' Albanese noted a recent shift in perceptions in Europe and around the world following an outcry over images of emaciated children in Gaza and reports of dozens of hunger-related deaths after nearly 22 months of war. 'It's shocking," she said. "I don't think that there are words left to describe what's happening to the Palestinian people.' The war began on Oct. 7, 2023, when Hamas-led militants stormed into Israel and killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 people captive. Israel's retaliatory campaign has killed over 60,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians but says more than half the dead are women and children. Nearly 21 months into the conflict that displaced the vast majority of Gaza's 2.3 million people, the United Nations says hunger is rampant after a lengthy Israeli blockade on food entering the territory and medical care is extremely limited. Solve the daily Crossword
an hour ago
Trump says Epstein 'stole' young women from Mar-a-Lago spa, including Virginia Giuffre
WASHINGTON -- President Donald Trump said Tuesday that Jeffrey Epstein 'stole' young women who worked for the spa at Mar-a-Lago, the latest evolution in his description of how their highly scrutinized relationship ended years ago. One of the women, he acknowledged, was Virginia Giuffre, who was among Epstein's most well-known sex trafficking accusers. Trump's comments expanded on remarks he had made a day earlier, when he said he had banned Epstein from his private club in Florida two decades ago because his one-time friend 'stole people that worked for me.' At the time, he did not make clear who those workers were. The Republican president has faced an outcry over his administration's refusal to release more records about Epstein after promises of transparency, a rare example of strain within Trump's tightly controlled political coalition. Trump has attempted to tamp down questions about the case, expressing annoyance that people are still talking about it six years after Epstein died by suicide while awaiting trial, even though some of his own allies have promoted conspiracy theories about it. Ghislaine Maxwell, Epstein's imprisoned former girlfriend, was recently interviewed inside a Florida courthouse by the Justice Department's No. 2 official, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, though officials have not publicly disclosed what she said. Her lawyers said Tuesday that she's willing to answer more questions from Congress if she is granted immunity from future prosecution for her testimony and if lawmakers agree to satisfy other conditions. Aboard Air Force One while returning from Scotland, Trump said he was upset that Epstein was 'taking people who worked for me.' The women, he said, were 'taken out of the spa, hired by him — in other words, gone.' 'I said, listen, we don't want you taking our people,' Trump said. When it happened again, Trump said he banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago. Asked if Giuffre was one of the employees poached by Epstein, he demurred but then said 'he stole her.' The White House originally said Trump banned Epstein from Mar-a-Lago because he was acting like a 'creep.' Giuffre died by suicide earlier this year. She claimed that Maxwell spotted her working as a spa attendant at Mar-a-Lago in 2000, when she was a teenager, and hired her as Epstein's masseuse, which led to sexual abuse. Although Giuffre's allegations did not become part of criminal prosecutions against Epstein, she is central to conspiracy theories about the case. She accused Epstein of pressuring her into having sex with powerful men. Maxwell, who has denied Giuffre's allegations, is serving a 20-year-prison sentence in a Florida federal prison for conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse underage girls. A spokeswoman for the House Oversight Committee, which requested the interview with Maxwell, said the panel would not consider granting the immunity she requested. The potential interview is part of a frenzied, renewed interest in the Epstein saga following the Justice Department's statement earlier this month that it would not be releasing any additional records from the investigation, an abrupt announcement that stunned online sleuths, conspiracy theorists and elements of Trump's political base who had been hoping to find proof of a government coverup. Since then, the Trump administration has sought to present itself as promoting transparency, with the department urging courts to unseal grand jury transcripts from the sex-trafficking investigations. A judge in Florida last week rejected the request, though similar requests are pending in New York. In a letter Tuesday, Maxwell's attorneys said that though their initial instinct was for Maxwell to invoke her Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination, they are open to having her cooperate provided that lawmakers satisfy their request for immunity and other conditions. But the Oversight Committee seemed to reject that offer outright. 'The Oversight Committee will respond to Ms. Maxwell's attorney soon, but it will not consider granting congressional immunity for her testimony," a spokesperson said. Separately, Maxwell's attorneys have urged the Supreme Court to review her conviction, saying she did not receive a fair trial. They also say that one way she would testify 'openly and honestly, in public,' is in the event of a pardon by Trump, who has told reporters that such a move is within his rights but that he has not been not asked to do it. 'She welcomes the opportunity to share the truth and to dispel the many misconceptions and misstatements that have plagued this case from the beginning,' the lawyers said.
