Retail investors are driving the market: Should you follow their lead?

Business Standard

20 hours ago

A new trend is unfolding in the Indian stock market—one that pits cautious insiders against confident domestic investors. In just two months (May–June 2025), promoters and insiders offloaded shares worth over ₹95,000 crore ($11 billion), even as domestic institutional investors (DIIs), backed by steady mutual fund inflows from retail households, bought in aggressively, said a report by Kotak Institutional Securities.
So, what does this divergence mean for your personal investments?
The Indian equity market is witnessing a striking shift in ownership patterns as insiders and promoters sharply increase stake sales, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) and retail shareholders aggressively step in as buyers. This dynamic reveals two contrasting market perspectives—insiders capitalizing on elevated valuations and strategic reasons to exit, and domestic investors buying with less focus on price, underpinning the resilience of the Indian market.
According to recent data analysed by Kotak Institutional Securities, insiders and promoters have sold stakes worth nearly ₹950 billion (approximately $11 billion) in just the past two months, following a significant market rerating earlier this year. Notable exits include major holdings in Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finance, Hindustan Zinc, IndiGo, and Varun Beverages. Additionally, sizeable stake sales by BAT in ITC (USD 1.5 billion) and Reliance Industries Limited's non-strategic sale in APNT ($ 1.1 billion) highlight diverse motivations ranging from business strategy shifts to promoter group debt management.
Promoters are cashing out, but why?
Top company promoters, including those of Bharti Airtel, Bajaj Finserv, Indigo, and Hindustan Zinc, have been selling shares, riding the wave of India's market rally. Even strategic investors like BAT (in ITC) and Reliance Industries (in Asian Paints) have exited significant stakes.
Why the exodus?
Valuations are rich: With the Nifty 50 trading at over 25x earnings, insiders may be booking profits.
Strategic needs: Some are freeing up capital for debt reduction or restructuring.
Past patterns repeat: Promoter selling often spikes during market re-ratings, like now.
But it's not a sign of doom—just a shift in strategy.
Retail money is powering the markets
While foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have collectively sold around $ 11 billion in the first half of 2025, domestic institutional investors have counterbalanced these outflows with purchases totaling $41 billion. Retail investors, both direct shareholders and those investing through mutual funds, have increasingly embraced equities, showing improved sentiment and turning net buyers in June after months of selling. This price-agnostic buying behavior by households, facilitated through DIIs, is pivotal to sustaining market liquidity despite FPI withdrawals.
SIP flows continue: Households are pouring money into equity mutual funds—₹1.4 lakh crore (~USD 17 billion) in just the first five months of 2025.
Direct equity investing is up: Retail investors turned net buyers in June after three months of cautious behavior.
Confidence in the India story: Retail sentiment has improved with better fund NAVs and strong returns from thematic and 'narrative' stocks like Cochin Shipyard, Mazagon Dock, and Suzlon.
The evolving ownership landscape reflects this exchange: promoter holdings in the BSE-200 index have declined from 43% in March 2021 to 37% in March 2025, while domestic investor holdings have risen by over 4 percentage points to 25.2%. Concurrently, FPI ownership has dipped from 24.4% to 20.2% over the same period, indicating a structural shift toward greater domestic participation.
Market expert Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Securities notes that this pattern underscores a dual market narrative. Insiders may be leveraging high valuations or addressing internal corporate needs through stake sales, while retail and domestic institutional investors, buoyed by improving market returns and thematic fund performance, are investing with a longer-term outlook.
"We note that private promoter holding in the BSE-200 Index has declined to 37% in the Mar-25 quarter from 43% in the Mar-21 quarter consequent to steady sell-down in promoter holdings. The combined holding of domestic investors (MF + BFI + retail) has increased by 430 bps to 25.2% in the Mar-25 quarter from 20.9% in the Mar-21 quarter. The holding of FPIs has declined to 20.2% from 24.4% over the same period," said Prasad.
Is this herd mentality?
Despite the apparent confidence, experts at Kotak caution that retail investors are showing price-agnostic behavior—buying without deep regard to valuations.
Yes, DIIs offer some buffer due to professional fund management. But if mutual fund flows slow down (as they did earlier in the year), or if global volatility rises, the party may not last forever.
What should you do as a retail investor?
Here's how to approach the current market dynamics:
Don't just follow the herd: Promoter exits aren't always red flags, but they do offer clues. Do your research before buying into companies seeing large insider selling.
Stick to your plan: SIPs work best over time. Avoid chasing hot sectors or recent winners without assessing your long-term goals.
Review valuations: Be wary of high P/E multiples and frothy smallcaps or narrative stocks. Use basic valuation filters or mutual fund tools to check if you're paying too much.
Diversify smartly: Don't put all your money into equity just because flows are high. Balance it with fixed income, gold, or international exposure depending on your risk profile.
Don't get complacent: Markets look upbeat now, but the same insiders selling today may be the ones buying again after a correction.