US stock market today: Wall Street edges higher as S&P 500 gains on Trump's Vietnam trade deal, Nasdaq jumps, Dow steady amid weak ADP jobs data
S&P 500 rises after Trump reveals Vietnam trade deal, but weak jobs data keeps gains in check- The S&P 500 rose on Wednesday following a surprise announcement from President Donald Trump about a new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, which he shared via Truth Social. The benchmark index edged up 0.2%, driven by fresh hopes of improving global trade relations. However, the enthusiasm on Wall Street was held back by troubling labor market data. According to the latest ADP payrolls report, the U.S. private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, the first monthly drop since March 2023, and far below economists' forecast of a 100,000-job gain. The Nasdaq Composite performed slightly better, climbing 0.7%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, reflecting mixed investor sentiment amid both positive trade developments and concerning economic indicators.
The US stock market showed mixed movements today, July 2, 2025, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite trading higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw modest gains. The markets responded to President Donald Trump's announcement of a Vietnam trade deal, alongside investor caution over weaker-than-expected private payroll data for June. S&P 500 (via SPY ETF): 618.8 , up 0.2%
, up Nasdaq Composite: +0.7% , helped by tech recovery
, helped by tech recovery Dow Jones Industrial Average: Up nearly 400 points or ~0.9%, led by industrials and materials
Tesla stock surged nearly 6% after reporting 384,000 Q2 deliveries, beating expectations.
deliveries, beating expectations. Health-care sector dropped sharply, with one major provider falling around 40%, dragging others in the group.
Materials and industrials stocks gained, as investors rotated away from tech and into value sectors.
ADP private payrolls report showed a decline of 33,000 jobs in June — the first monthly drop since March 2023.
jobs in June — the first monthly drop since March 2023. Economists had expected a gain of 100,000 jobs, leading to speculation about a potential Fed interest rate cut at the July meeting.
jobs, leading to speculation about a potential Fed interest rate cut at the July meeting. Eyes are now on Thursday's official non-farm payroll report, forecasted to show 110,000 job gains and 4.3% unemployment.
Federal Reserve decision on interest rates could shift if job data continues to weaken.
Investors remain cautious, with stock indexes near all-time highs and macroeconomic uncertainty in focus.
Trump's tax-and-spending bill, which just passed the Senate, is heading to the House and may influence fiscal policy outlook in the coming weeks.
Tariff deadlines and ongoing geopolitical developments are also on the radar for market watchers. President Trump's announcement of a new trade deal with Vietnam provided a brief tailwind to the S&P 500 and investor sentiment. Although the president did not offer details about the agreement, the post alone was enough to shift market focus from ongoing global economic uncertainty to potential international cooperation. This deal could mark a strategic step in balancing Asian trade relations, especially as tensions with China continue to weigh on global markets.
However, without specifics, analysts remain cautious. Markets are looking for clarity—such as whether the deal covers tariffs, technology exchange, or broader economic cooperation.
The optimism sparked by Trump's trade news was tempered by a stark jobs report from ADP, showing that private payrolls declined by 33,000 last month. This marked the first negative reading since March 2023, and it shocked analysts, who had projected a gain of 100,000 jobs.
Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird, told CNBC, 'We've been seeing a weakening of the labor market for months, and I always wondered if it would take a negative payrolls print to get the [Federal Reserve] to pay more attention.' His comment reflects growing concern that the Fed's focus on inflation may be overshadowing emerging cracks in the labor sector. Investors are now speculating whether Federal Reserve policymakers will shift course. A weak job market could become a trigger for a long-anticipated rate cut, especially as inflation pressures begin to cool. The CME Group's FedWatch tool now shows a 25% chance of a July rate cut, up from 20% just the day before.
Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, believes that a softer jobs report could clear the path. 'If we end up having a fairly weak employment report, then that could allow the Fed to be cutting rates,' he said. Stovall also pointed out that Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously mentioned that the central bank would have already cut rates if not for Trump's earlier tariff plans. Despite Wednesday's ADP data, traders are now looking ahead to Thursday's official government jobs report. Economists are forecasting a gain of 110,000 jobs for June. However, if that figure misses the mark in a similar way to ADP's number, markets may begin pricing in more aggressive Fed action later this month. This comes as stocks flirt with record highs, making them particularly sensitive to economic data and Federal Reserve decisions. Wall Street's mixed performance—where the Dow surged 400 points on Tuesday while tech-heavy indexes fell—suggests a market still unsure about its direction. In addition to the trade announcement and economic data, investors are watching Trump's tax-and-spending bill, which narrowly passed the Senate on Tuesday. The measure now returns to the House, where some GOP lawmakers remain opposed. The bill could have broad implications for sectors like infrastructure, healthcare, and manufacturing, depending on how funds are allocated. Meanwhile, the market has seen a rotation out of technology stocks and into more defensive sectors such as materials and healthcare, signaling that investors are bracing for potential economic headwinds. Index Move Today S&P 500 +0.2% Nasdaq +0.7% Dow Jones +0.9% (~400 pts) Tech stocks recovered, led by Tesla
Health-care stocks under pressure
Investors watch job data and Fed signals closely
S&P 500 rose 0.2%; Nasdaq gained 0.7%; Dow was flat.
President Trump announced a new U.S.-Vietnam trade deal, but offered no specifics.
ADP report showed 33,000 private jobs lost in June, vs. 100,000 expected.
Fed may consider interest rate cuts if Friday's official jobs data also disappoints.
Trump's tax bill passed Senate, still faces GOP resistance in House. With Trump's trade diplomacy making waves and labor market signals flashing warning signs, all eyes are on the upcoming jobs report and the Federal Reserve's July policy meeting. The next few days could shape the trajectory of both the stock market and U.S. economic policy for the rest of 2025. Q1: Why did the S&P 500 rise after Trump's Vietnam trade deal? Because investor sentiment improved after Trump revealed a new trade agreement with Vietnam.
Q2: Could weak jobs data lead to a Fed rate cut? Yes, a drop in payrolls could push the Fed to lower interest rates this month.
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Business Standard
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Trump's visa curbs vs America's need for immigrant tech brains: Decoded
Meta's latest artificial intelligence venture, the Superintelligence Lab, is being led entirely by immigrant researchers, even as US visa policies remain unpredictable for foreign professionals. The team of 11 researchers, hired from top firms like OpenAI, DeepMind, Google and Anthropic, hails from India, China, South Africa, the UK and Australia. Each holds advanced degrees from US universities and has worked on some of the most sophisticated AI systems in use today. This comes at a time when the US government has toughened its stance on immigration. The Trump administration has introduced measures like prolonged visa processing times, heightened scrutiny of social media activity, and targeted ICE enforcement across cities with large immigrant populations. Immigrant expertise behind major AI breakthroughs From developing core algorithms to building multimodal and generative AI systems, the researchers joining Meta have worked at the heart of global AI innovation. 'Meta's Superintelligence Lab, led entirely by immigrant researchers, is the practical reality we needed to see. AI innovation is truly going borderless and India continues to serve as a strong hub of ready talent,' Praneet Singh, AVP – University Partnership at upGrad's study abroad division told Business Standard. 'It's quite paradoxical, though — while our talent is ready, mobility remains constrained. Despite policy shifts like STEM OPT extensions and improved green card processing, visa constraints and bureaucratic uncertainties continue to slow down global movement,' he added. AI talent is ready—but mobility is not Neeti Sharma, CEO of TeamLease Digital, said immigrant talent has long powered US tech leadership. 'It is not just about filling job vacancies—it's about bringing in diverse skill sets, expertise and perspectives that collaboratively bring out the best for any organisation,' she told Business Standard. But she pointed out that barriers to movement are growing. 'Delayed visa processing remains the biggest hurdle: long waits, restrictive caps, and policy uncertainty disrupt both career plans and hiring strategies,' she said. She added that talent also struggles with issues like cultural integration, credential recognition gaps, and stiff competition, which can slow down or discourage Indian AI professionals—even though they remain central to innovation hubs like Silicon Valley. India's AI education still catching up While India produces a large number of engineering graduates every year, experts say the country still lacks a consistent model for preparing them for top AI roles abroad. 'On the supply side, Indian universities have made commendable strides in STEM education, but AI roles today demand more than academic depth—they require hands-on, real-time problem-solving,' said Singh. Sharma agreed. 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The US still has a strong pull, but there's room to make the path more predictable and welcoming for long-term contributors, especially from countries like India,' added Mayank Kumar, co-founder and CEO of BorderPlus. Meet Meta's AI dream team Meta's new hires include some of the most cited researchers and engineers in the AI field. They have contributed to systems like GPT-4o, Gemini, and foundational models used across text, voice, image and robotics. A few notable members of the lab: Trapit Bansal (India) – PhD from University of Massachusetts Amherst, known for work in reinforcement learning and chain-of-thought reasoning. Shuchao Bi (China) – PhD from UC Berkeley, co-developed the voice mode for GPT-4o. Huiwen Chang (China) – PhD from Princeton, led image generation for GPT-4o and developed Muse architecture. Ji Lin (China) – PhD from MIT, helped scale GPT-4o and o-series models with a focus on efficiency. 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First Post
14 minutes ago
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Can India and the US strike a trade deal without clashing over agriculture?
As India and the US push to finalise a trade pact before Trump's July 9 deadline, agriculture has emerged as the biggest roadblock. With disagreements over GM crops, dairy and ethanol, and concerns over rural livelihoods, both sides are locked in a tense standoff. Can they reach a deal without upsetting India's farmers? read more A farm worker holds rice sapling as he prepares to plant them in a field on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, July 22, 2024. File Image/Reuters India and the United States are racing to conclude an interim trade pact ahead of President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline but a long-standing hurdle threatens to block progress — agriculture. Despite nearing consensus on various industrial sectors, disputes around farm goods, including genetically modified crops, dairy imports and ethanol remain reportedly unresolved. The issue is not merely economic for India; it touches upon food security, rural livelihoods, and political sensitivities, all of which have major implications for the country's domestic stability. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Why India's agriculture sector is non-negotiable Though farming and allied activities contribute a relatively modest portion — around 16 per cent — to India's GDP, the sector supports nearly half of the country's population of 1.4 billion. The farming community represents a dominant political constituency and has historically influenced policy decisions through sustained mobilisations. In 2021, the Indian government was compelled to withdraw major agricultural reforms following year-long nationwide protests. This past resistance still casts a shadow over current trade negotiations, as New Delhi remains wary of sparking fresh unrest by opening up its agricultural sector to foreign competition. India's farming structure is notably small-scale. The average size of a farm is just over a hectare, contrasting sharply with American agricultural operations, where the mean farm size exceeds 180 hectares. In India, most farms are manually operated or use outdated techniques passed down over generations, while US agriculture is highly mechanised and supported by advanced technology, including AI-based monitoring systems and large-scale machinery. US agricultural demands vs India's red lines A central point of contention is Washington's push for increased access to the Indian market for a range of American agricultural products. The US seeks to expand exports of various farm commodities — among them genetically modified (GM) corn and soybeans, wheat, poultry, dairy, rice, ethanol, and a variety of processed foods including canned peaches, frozen French fries, chocolates, cookies and citrus fruits. While India has indicated some openness to easing tariffs on selected imports such as dry fruits and apples, it has remained firm on rejecting access to GM grains, US dairy products, and ethanol. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Genetically modified crops form a significant part of US agricultural output. However, India does not currently allow the commercial cultivation of GM food crops due to concerns over ecological balance, food safety and the impact on smallholder farmers. Even as India imports edible oils made from genetically modified crops — such as soy and canola — it restricts GM crop cultivation. The commercial release of GM mustard, for example, remains on hold due to pending legal proceedings, and a previous attempt to introduce GM brinjal was blocked in 2010. Nonetheless, some flexibility is being explored. According to Bloomberg, Indian regulators may consider permitting select GM-derived by-products used in animal feed, such as soybean meal or distillers dried grains from corn-based ethanol production. These items would not directly affect human food chains but would still mark a departure from India's long-standing GM restrictions. Why dairy and ethanol are particularly sensitive India's dairy sector employs more than 80 million individuals, a figure that includes small-scale farmers, cooperatives, and vendors. The industry is largely unorganised and depends on herds that typically contain two to three animals per household. In contrast, US dairy farms operate on a vastly different scale, often managing hundreds of cattle with heavy reliance on mechanisation and feed practices that include animal by-products. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD This latter point is a major concern in India, where dietary norms and religious sensitivities significantly influence food preferences. The potential entry of dairy sourced from cows fed with animal remnants has been met with strong resistance from Indian consumers and cooperatives like Amul, which have played a key role in shaping the country's self-reliant dairy ecosystem. Similarly, ethanol is another highly sensitive area. India has made substantial progress under its Ethanol Blended Petrol (EBP) initiative, aiming to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels by blending petrol with domestically produced ethanol. Most of the ethanol used in India is derived from surplus sugarcane, rice and corn. Allowing the import of US ethanol would not only compromise this strategic energy programme but could also undermine the investments made by Indian distillers and agribusinesses. What each side is willing to concede With the deadline for reciprocal tariffs fast approaching, negotiators from both countries are working to close the deal. Sources indicated that the Indian delegation, led by Special Secretary Rajesh Agarwal, has had to extend its stay in Washington due to ongoing disagreements, particularly over agricultural tariffs. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD India has shown willingness to discuss reductions on industrial tariffs and provide access to the US in sectors where the political cost is lower — such as in automobiles, a long-standing American request. It has also pushed for broader access to US markets for Indian exports from labour-intensive sectors including textiles, leather, jewellery, plastics, and chemicals. The interim agreement is seen as a stepping-stone towards increasing bilateral trade volumes, with a shared ambition to double total trade to USD 500 billion by 2030 — a goal reiterated by Trump during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's February visit to the United States. Trump, speaking about the potential deal earlier this week, said: 'I think we are going to have a deal with India. And that is going to be a different kind of a deal. It is going to be a deal where we are able to go in and compete. Right now, India does not accept anybody in. I think India is going to do that, and if they do that, we are going to have a deal for much less tariffs.' STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Why India is not backing down India's resistance to opening its agricultural market is deeply rooted in structural and strategic realities. The rural economy is vulnerable to global market shocks. Even modest tariff relaxations could disrupt domestic pricing and erode the safety net provided by public procurement and the Minimum Support Price (MSP) system — pillars that protect farmers from price crashes. Many experts argue that liberalising agricultural trade too quickly could expose India's fragmented farming community to the volatility of global commodity markets dominated by large multinational agribusinesses. These companies often benefit from generous subsidies and economies of scale unavailable to Indian farmers. Further complicating the negotiations is the demand from US exporters for greater parity. However, India's current agricultural tariff regime — ranging from zero to 150 per cent — is not exceptional. The US, too, maintains steep tariffs on specific imports, such as tobacco at over 350 per cent. Thus, criticisms of asymmetry in trade practices may not be entirely justified. India's position finds some backing under WTO norms, which allow member nations to protect sensitive sectors for reasons such as food security, rural development, and employment. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Nonetheless, the final decision may come down to political calculus more than legal boundaries. Farmers and labour unions mount pressure Opposition to agricultural liberalisation is growing beyond policy circles. On July 3, leaders of the Samyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM) held a press conference in Hyderabad, reaffirming their call for an all-India strike on July 9. The SKM, in collaboration with trade unions, is staging protests to oppose what it describes as 'anti-farmer, anti-labour, and anti-people' policies. Former Member of Parliament Vadde Sobhanadreeswara Rao voiced strong opposition to including agriculture in any trade agreement with the U.S. He and other SKM leaders also criticised the government's delay in enacting legislation to guarantee MSP as a legal right. The farmers' coalition has called for a full withdrawal of the National Policy Framework for Agricultural Marketing (NPFAM) and warned of further mobilisations if agriculture is compromised in trade talks. A way out? In light of these challenges, a compromise may be possible through selective market access rather than full liberalisation. One such mechanism could involve tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) — a system that allows a limited volume of imports at reduced tariffs, while maintaining higher duties on imports exceeding the quota. This model was recently adopted in the US-UK mini trade pact announced in May, where agriculture was kept out of contentious discussions. India may be open to marginally lowering tariffs on select low-risk items such as almonds, walnuts, apples, raisins, olive oil, spirits and wine — products that pose minimal threat to domestic producers. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such a calibrated approach could allow both sides to claim victory without triggering adverse political fallout in India. However, the extent of these concessions remains uncertain. A NITI Aayog policy paper has suggested tariff cuts on certain US agricultural products, but it is unclear whether this reflects the official stance of the Indian government or is merely a preliminary recommendation. Agriculture remains the thorniest issue in the India-US trade negotiations. With inputs from agencies
Time of India
30 minutes ago
- Time of India
India and Trump are haggling over the same constituency
The July 9 deadline looms large over the India-US trade talks which have stretched into weeks as both sides try to work around each other's hard stances. In April, US President Donald Trump had temporarily reduced the tariff rate for most countries to 10% to allow time for negotiations through July 9. An announcement on the trade deal is expected no later than the midnight of July 4-5, as per an ET report based on information from people in the know. The deal could be unveiled in phases. For days, there appeared to be a stalemate in the trade talks, with India hardening its position on offering duty concessions on agricultural products. What has been holding up the trade talks is the same interest group that matters to India as well as the US -- the farmers. The US has been pushing its agriculture and dairy products to promote its farmers, a politically powerful section in the US, while India has been resisting offering tariff concessions on these goods to protect its farmers from low-priced American agriculture and dairy products flooding the Indian market which can drastically bring down prices, thus harming Indian farmers. American farmers, an influential political bloc by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Remember Him? Sit Down Before You See What He Looks Like Now 33 Bridges Undo Trade negotiations are rarely just about economics. They are deeply entangled with domestic political imperatives. In the US-India trade talks under the Trump administration, one of the key undercurrents is the political weight of American farmers. Trump, elected in part due to strong support from rural America, has prioritised the interests of the US agricultural and dairy sectors in trade policy. His administration's push for greater market access to India for American agricultural and dairy products is not merely an economic strategy. It's a calculated political move shaped by the influence of the powerful farm lobby. American farmers, particularly those in the Midwest, represent a formidable political force. They are a critical part of Trump's base, having overwhelmingly supported him in the 2016 and 2020 elections. These regions hold significant sway in shaping the national conversation on trade and rural development. Live Events You Might Also Like: Why are farm goods holding up the India-US trade deal? America's most farming-dependent counties overwhelmingly backed Trump in last year's election by an average of 77.7%, as per independent news outlet, Investigate Midwest. Not only did Trump increase his support among farming-dependent counties, but more than 100 of those counties supported him with at least 80% of their vote. In a speech before Congress in march, Trump said that his new trade policies would "be great for the American farmer" even as he acknowledged that there "may be a little bit of an adjustment period." "Our farmers are going to have a field day right now," Trump said. He also claimed that farmers could compensate for any losses by selling more domestically. "Nobody is going to be able to compete with you," he said enthusiastically. Over the years, American farmers have grown increasingly dependent on exports due to domestic overproduction and changing consumption patterns. Major agricultural states like Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska rely heavily on foreign markets for commodities such as soybeans, corn, dairy and meat. Therefore, securing new or expanded trade deals that boost agricultural exports directly serves both the economic interests of these states and Trump's political interest. During Trump's previous term, government payments to farmers rose to historic levels as the Trump administration handed out cash to farmers to compensate for the financial losses from his tariff wars India is worried about its own farmers India's own political and economic considerations -- protecting its domestic farmers, adhering to food safety norms and maintaining strategic autonomy -- clash with American demands for duty concessions on agricultural and dairy products. Agriculture and its allied areas contribute just 16% to India's $3.9 trillion economy, but sustain nearly half of the country's 1.4 billion population. As farmers remain the most powerful voting bloc, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was forced into a rare retreat four years ago when it tried to push through controversial farm laws. You Might Also Like: India may allow GM animal-feed imports from US in trade deal The prospect of cheaper imports from the United States threatens to drive down local prices, handing the opposition a fresh opportunity to attack the government. New Delhi has traditionally kept agriculture out of Free Trade Agreements with other nations. Granting market access to the US could force India to extend similar concessions to other trading partners. The average Indian farm comprises just 1.08 hectares, compared to 187 hectares in the United States. In dairy, the average herd size in India is two to three animals per farmer, compared to hundreds in the US. This difference makes it difficult for small Indian farmers to compete with their U.S. counterparts. The US is pressing India to open its markets to a wide range of American products, including dairy, poultry, corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, ethanol, citrus fruits, almonds, pecans, apples, grapes, canned peaches, chocolates, cookies, and frozen French fries. While India is willing to grant greater access to US dry fruits and apples, it is holding back on allowing imports of corn, soybeans, wheat, and dairy products. India does not allow genetically modified (GM) food crops, while most US corn and soybean production is GM-based. Dairy remains a sensitive issue in India, where cultural and dietary preferences strongly influence food choices. Indian consumers are particularly concerned that cattle in the US are often fed with animal by-products, a practice that conflicts with Indian food habits. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has cautioned that permanent reduction of agricultural tariffs in the India-US free trade agreement could result in subsidised US grains overwhelming Indian markets during global price downturns. Historical evidence shows that global grain prices plummeted between 2014 and 2016, with wheat prices falling under $160 per tonne, devastating African farmers. "India must retain policy space to manage food stocks, support rural incomes, and respond to global shocks. In today's geopolitically unstable world, food security must remain sovereign," GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava was quoted as saying by PTI. At present, the government doesn't allow cultivation of GM food crops, even though varieties can aid yields. The commercial release of GM mustard has been stalled due to a legal challenge in the country's top court, and in 2010, the government rejected a GM variety of brinjal. Still, India already meets about 60% of vegetable-oil demand through imports, including soy and canola oils from GM crops. The country is also the second-largest cotton grower, with more than 90% of that crop genetically modified. You Might Also Like: Import duty cut on US farm goods under trade pact could undermine India's food security: GTRI The way out of the deadlock While India remains firm on not giving concessions in market access in the sensitive dairy and agricultural sectors, India is looking to allow imports of certain GM-based farm products used in animal feed, ET has reported based on information from sources. Talks on the deal are nearing conclusion with some last minute fine-tuning, a person privy to the development told ET, adding it could be announced well before the July 9 deadline when the US government's moratorium on reciprocal tariffs ends. "Sensitive agriculture and dairy products are out of the deal. There could be some farm products such as apples where limited concessions are being worked out," said an official, adding that concessions for US-made automobiles are high on priority list. India may agree to inbound shipments of some products used in animal feeds, such as soybean meal and distillers dried grains with solubles, a byproduct of corn-based ethanol production, people familiar with the matter, who asked not be identified as the information isn't public, told Bloomberg. You Might Also Like: Modi-govt must hold the line on food and fuel trade when dealing with Trump
