Why EU-US trade deal isn't being universally celebrated
The EU-US 15% tariff deal may well have averted a trade war, but that doesn't mean it's been greeted enthusiastically in Northern Ireland, the Republic – or indeed, anywhere in Europe.
The accord, announced on Sunday by US President Donald Trump and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, applies a tariff of 15% to EU imports into the US – an improvement on a threatened rate of 30%.
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Scotsman
12 minutes ago
- Scotsman
Polarising Donald Trump's North Sea comments tapped into growing frustration
It's time to listen to the point made by US president Donald Trump and turn his soundbite on the North Sea into a smart, sober policy, writes Ryan Crighton. Sign up to our daily newsletter – Regular news stories and round-ups from around Scotland direct to your inbox Sign up Thank you for signing up! Did you know with a Digital Subscription to The Scotsman, you can get unlimited access to the website including our premium content, as well as benefiting from fewer ads, loyalty rewards and much more. Learn More Sorry, there seem to be some issues. Please try again later. Submitting... Donald Trump's shoot-from-the-hip diplomacy was on full display in Aberdeen this week as he waded into the UK's energy debate, calling for lower taxes on North Sea oil and gas operators. The president's remarks – delivered both in person and online to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer – will have raised eyebrows in Westminster. However, in the north-east of Scotland, where redundancies are mounting, his comments tapped into a growing sense of frustration. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad US President Donald Trump on the first tee during the official opening of the New Course, the second championship course at Trump International Golf Links, on the Menie Estate in Balmedie, Aberdeenshire | PA He may be a polarising messenger, but his advocacy for the repeal of the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) aligns with what the data, the workers and the businesses on the ground have been saying for over two years – that the windfall tax is killing off a vital British industry and a crucial national asset. According to data from Offshore Energies UK, 10,000 jobs have already been lost since the levy's introduction by the Conservative government in 2022. Harbour Energy, the UK's largest oil and gas producer, has since laid off 600 people in Aberdeen alone. These aren't abstract statistics — they are highly skilled individuals, families, and communities being sacrificed on the altar of fiscal short-termism. The failure of the north east green freeport bid is a major blow for a regional economy transitioning away from fossil fuels. Picture: Andy Buchanan/Getty Worse still, the economic wreckage isn't even delivering the returns that were promised. Independent analysis from Stifel shows EPL revenues have consistently come in at the low end of government forecasts. Why? Because the supposed "windfall" they are taxing does not exist. Oil prices are down 50 per cent since the peak of the Ukraine crisis. Gas prices have collapsed by 80 per cent. The result is a textbook case of policy failure. Tax hikes intended to boost revenues have instead triggered a collapse in investment, with over £20 billion of planned capital spending now cancelled or paused. Exploration activity has ground to a halt. Fields are being decommissioned prematurely. The UK is forfeiting not just jobs and tax income, but its energy security. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad This shouldn't just be of concern to those living and working in Aberdeen - this should alarm everyone, because the UK still needs oil and gas. Even in the most ambitious net-zero scenario, the country will require between 13 and 15 billion barrels of oil equivalent by 2050. Right now, we're on track to produce less than four. And that energy shortfall isn't going to be filled by wind turbines and hydrogen pipelines overnight. The reality is that we are swapping cleaner, domestically produced energy for dirtier, imported alternatives. According to the North Sea Transition Authority, gas extracted in the UK has less than a quarter of the carbon footprint of imported LNG. Yet we are allowing that domestic capacity to decline while increasing our reliance on higher-emission imports from the US and Qatar. It is environmental hypocrisy at its worst. All the while, the UK government continues to claim we are 'maximising value' from our domestic resources. But how? By driving capital offshore? By gutting the supply chain that is also needed to deliver renewables, carbon capture, and green hydrogen? By forcing energy companies to pay tax rates that, in some cases, exceed 100 per cent? Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad Ryan Crighton, policy director at Aberdeen & Grampian Chamber of Commerce and a senior partner at True North Advisors. | True North Advisors In 2024, Harbour Energy reported a pre-tax profit of £950 million. However, after accounting for an effective tax rate of 108 per cent, the company posted no net profit for the year. This level of taxation is without parallel in the UK economy. It's not just unfair - it's economically suicidal. The UK's approach also compares poorly to our North Sea neighbours in Norway. While their headline tax rate is similar, the Norwegian government supports exploration and shares risk through its fiscal regime. That's why Norway continues to attract investment and why its energy sector is thriving. We, by contrast, have taken the opposite path – penalising production, scaring off capital, and hoping for different results. What's even more galling is that the levy is being used to fund Great British Energy – the new public clean energy company set-up by the Labour Party. According to Stifel, EPL revenues are set to collapse from £5.5bn to under £1bn by 2029. You cannot fund the future of energy by strangling the very sector that underpins it. So yes, President Trump is right to shine a spotlight on this issue. But the solution isn't a populist soundbite or a quick political win. It is a long-overdue dose of energy pragmatism. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad That means abolishing the EPL – now – and restoring a stable, competitive tax regime that can unlock investment, extend production and retain the critical skills base we will need for the next generation of energy infrastructure. It also means rejecting the false binary between fossil fuels and renewables. The future is not oil or wind. It is oil and wind. And hydrogen. And carbon capture. We need all of it. Everything, everywhere, all at once. The UK cannot build a low-carbon future while dismantling the industrial engine required to deliver it. A managed transition must be just that – managed. And that means recognising the continuing role of oil and gas, treating our energy sector with the strategic seriousness it deserves, and stopping the ideological war against the basin that still powers Britain. So, let's take Trump's call and translate it into smart, sober policy. Not because he said it, but because the facts demand it. Advertisement Hide Ad Advertisement Hide Ad The North Sea doesn't need special treatment, but it does deserve fair treatment. The alternative isn't a greener future – it's a weaker Britain.
The National
2 hours ago
- The National
The recent poll makes it clear – the EU door is open for Scotland
The news that there is overwhelming support among folks in five key EU members for an independent Scotland joining the bloc comes as no surprise – I've been having conversations with their representatives and diplomats for years. YouGov polled 2000 folks in Germany, and 1000 in Denmark, Spain, Italy and France asking: 'If Scotland voted for independence from the rest of the UK and asked to join the European Union, would you support or oppose allowing it to do so?' In Denmark, 75% support, 6% oppose; Germany, 68%/10%; Spain, 65%/13%; Italy, 64%/11%, and France, 63%/13%. I include the 'oppose' figures because it really is a slam dunk across all five countries: if people aren't actively in favour there are plenty don't know/don't cares, and little actual opposition. READ MORE: Police remove pro-Palestine protesters from John Swinney's Edinburgh Fringe show If anything, I'd love to see the numbers for all EU states and suspect they'd be similar, with potential Irish, Polish and other Scandinavian figures likely to be particularly intriguing. So we should be wary of the breathless 'we're Scots, everyone loves us!' attitude you'll find at the panglossian end of the Yes spectrum. There will be a serious negotiation and they'll argue hard for their interests (as indeed will we), but the upshot is clear – they want us in. The poll (and I really would urge reading it in full) also asked the question about the UK rejoining, and the numbers were less enthusiastic, but still remarkably positive given the last few years of nonsense, ranging from 51% in Italy to 53% in France, 60% in Spain and 63% in Germany. But, opposition was higher as were don't knows/don't cares. A salutary note for the UK's remainiacs, though – the EU deal you left isn't the one you'll get back. The UK had the financial rebate on the EU budget, opt-outs on passport-free travel, joining the euro and some aspects of judicial co-operation, and when asked about the UK joining but keeping them, all states bar Denmark (which has a couple of opt-outs too) were opposed. The UK, if it rejoins, will need to get over itself and join as a full, normal member. That causes no problems for Scotland given there are several dozen reasons why, like Ireland, we wouldn't want the opt-outs anyway (except for Schengen passport-free travel given, like Ireland, we only have one land border and let's assume the UK does not join any time soon). Even more salutary, the poll also asked 2000 or so UK folks whether they were in favour of rejoining, and 57% think they should keep the opt outs. Precisely the exceptionalist attitude that got the UK into this mess. So, for Scotland, game on. The last couple of weeks also showed other reasons why joining is urgent. The EU Commission president Dr Ursula von der Leyen came to Scotland to meet with visiting US president Donald Trump and agreed – or at least agreed in general terms yet to actually be agreed – a trade pact with the US. Where unease over the potential impact of the handshake has been voiced in various member state capitals, it is clear that the EU acting with one voice was taken seriously, to the extent the current US administration takes anything seriously. But more on that as the actual details emerge, closer to home, the first draft of the catchily named Multiannual Financial Framework was unveiled, the EU budget for 2028-2034. At €1.78 trillion (yes, trillion), it is a big old number but only 1.26% of the EU's Gross National Income. This is still a significant increase, and while this is only the EU Commission's first proposal and it will be hotly debated by the member states and EU Parliament, it shows a more assertive EU Commission, and more spending on an EU level. It was only released late last Tuesday so a lot of analysis will be done on the coming weeks, but a few things are clear. There will be a significant increase in EU defence, both in procuring new kit and in defence research and development spending. Scotland's universities and defence companies risk being excluded. The budget for renewables technology, research and the move to the just transition is in for significant increases – and again, our companies and researchers risk being left out – as well as on the infrastructure spending where Scotland has an urgent need for better grid connections to sell our abundant clean green energy. Agriculture and European food production continue to be supported, with €291 billion being ring-fenced for direct payments to farmers as part of a €387bn budget for other supports. NOT many Scots farmers voted for Brexit, but even so, have endured the triple whammy of having lost subsidy and access to the single market as well as being on the chopping block for any future UK trade deals, there's plenty of good news for Scots farmers in joining the EU. Cohesion policy – the EU structural funds Scotland made such good use of in building infrastructure and training – take a hit, with a smaller budget and less prominence. But it's still €392bn and non-members won't get buttons from it. The EU is moving on apace in a fast-changing world, and where the UK Government has made some steps in achieving a better mood music, there's no substitute for actual membership. I would welcome the UK getting serious about rejoining the EU, but in my heart of hearts, I just can't see it because too many UK politicians are running scared of populists. Scotland, however, has it all to play for.
The Independent
3 hours ago
- The Independent
Earthquake hits New York City and eastern New Jersey late Saturday as residents report buildings shaking
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging. At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story. Your support makes all the difference.
