Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase
'The market has gotten much more comfortable, more sanguine, when it comes to tariff news,' said Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset at Neuberger Berman in New York.
'The markets think that there is enough 'squishiness' in the deadlines – absent any major surprise – to not be too unsettled by more tariff news and believe that the worst-case scenarios are off the table now.'
Both the tariff levels and effective dates have become moving targets. Trump said on Friday that tariffs ranging up to 70% could go into effect on August 1, levels far higher than the 10%-50% range he announced in April.
So far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with Vietnam.
Deals that had been anticipated with India and Japan have failed to materialize, and there have been setbacks in talks with the European Union.
World stocks are meanwhile at record highs, up 11% since April 2. They fell 14% in three trading sessions after that announcement but have since rallied 24%.
"If Liberation Day was the earthquake, the tariff letters will be the aftershocks. They won't quite have the same impact on markets even if they are higher than the earlier 10%," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore.
"This financial system is so inundated with liquidity that it is hard to cash up or delever at the risk of lagging the markets, with April serving as a painful reminder for many who derisked and were then forced to chase the relentless recovery in the subsequent weeks."
Investors have also been distracted by weeks of wrangling in Congress over Trump's massive tax and spending package, which he signed into law on Friday.
Stock markets have celebrated the passage of the bill, which makes Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, while bond investors are wary the measures could add more than $3 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs on Friday, notching a third week of gains. Europe's STOXX 600 benchmark is up 9% in three months.
But the risks of tariff-related inflation have weighed on U.S.
Treasuries and the dollar, and jostled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Rate futures show traders no longer expect a Fed rate cut this month and are pricing in a total of just two quarter-point reductions by year-end.
The dollar has suffered a knock to its haven reputation from the dithering on tariffs. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone.
"The markets are discounting a return to tariff levels of 35%, 40% or higher, and anticipating an across-the-board level of 10% or so,' said John Pantekidis, chief investment officer at TwinFocus in Boston.
Pantekidis is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks this year, but the one variable he is watching closely is interest rate levels.
For now he expects to see interest rates dip in the second half, 'but if the bond market worries about the impact of the bill and rates go up, that's a different scenario.'
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Fashion Network
4 hours ago
- Fashion Network
Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase
And they are not overly concerned. 'The market has gotten much more comfortable, more sanguine, when it comes to tariff news,' said Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset at Neuberger Berman in New York. 'The markets think that there is enough 'squishiness' in the deadlines – absent any major surprise – to not be too unsettled by more tariff news and believe that the worst-case scenarios are off the table now.' Both the tariff levels and effective dates have become moving targets. Trump said on Friday that tariffs ranging up to 70% could go into effect on August 1, levels far higher than the 10%-50% range he announced in April. So far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with Vietnam. Deals that had been anticipated with India and Japan have failed to materialize, and there have been setbacks in talks with the European Union. World stocks are meanwhile at record highs, up 11% since April 2. They fell 14% in three trading sessions after that announcement but have since rallied 24%. "If Liberation Day was the earthquake, the tariff letters will be the aftershocks. They won't quite have the same impact on markets even if they are higher than the earlier 10%," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore. "This financial system is so inundated with liquidity that it is hard to cash up or delever at the risk of lagging the markets, with April serving as a painful reminder for many who derisked and were then forced to chase the relentless recovery in the subsequent weeks." Investors have also been distracted by weeks of wrangling in Congress over Trump's massive tax and spending package, which he signed into law on Friday. Stock markets have celebrated the passage of the bill, which makes Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, while bond investors are wary the measures could add more than $3 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs on Friday, notching a third week of gains. Europe's STOXX 600 benchmark is up 9% in three months. But the risks of tariff-related inflation have weighed on U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and jostled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Rate futures show traders no longer expect a Fed rate cut this month and are pricing in a total of just two quarter-point reductions by year-end. The dollar has suffered a knock to its haven reputation from the dithering on tariffs. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. "The markets are discounting a return to tariff levels of 35%, 40% or higher, and anticipating an across-the-board level of 10% or so,' said John Pantekidis, chief investment officer at TwinFocus in Boston. Pantekidis is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks this year, but the one variable he is watching closely is interest rate levels. For now he expects to see interest rates dip in the second half, 'but if the bond market worries about the impact of the bill and rates go up, that's a different scenario.'
France 24
4 hours ago
- France 24
US tariffs to kick in August 1 for countries without deals, Treasury chief says
US tariffs will kick in on August 1 if trading partners from Taiwan to the European Union do not strike deals with Washington, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday. The rates will "boomerang back" to the sometimes very high levels that President Donald Trump had announced on April 2 -- before he suspended the levies to allow for trade talks and set a July 9 deadline for agreements, Bessent told CNN. Bessent confirmed comments by Trump to reporters aboard Air Force One on Friday in which he also cited a new deadline: "Well, I'll probably start them on August 1." The president told reporters Sunday he had signed about a dozen letters to inform countries of rate hikes, to be sent out on Monday. "I think we'll have most countries done by July 9, either a letter or a deal," Trump told reporters Sunday, adding that some deals have already been made. Standing at his side, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed tariffs would kick in on August 1, "but the President is setting the rates and the deals right now." The tariffs were part of a broader announcement in April where Trump imposed a 10 percent duty on goods from almost all trading partners, with a plan to step up these rates for a select group within days. But he swiftly paused the hikes until July 9, allowing for trade talks to take place. Countries have been pushing to strike deals that would help them avoid these elevated duties. So far, the Trump administration has unveiled deals with the United Kingdom and Vietnam, while Washington and Beijing agreed to temporarily lower staggeringly high levies on each other's products. Bessent said the administration was "close to several deals." "I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days," he said. But he would not say which countries he was referring to, adding: "I don't want to let them off the hook." 'Maximum pressure' playbook Aboard Air Force One on Friday, Trump said sending notices would be much easier than "sitting down and working 15 different things... this is what you have to pay, if you want to do business (with) the United States." Bessent pushed back at CNN host Dana Bash's assertion the administration was using threats rather than negotiations, and denied that Trump was setting a new deadline with the August 1 date. "It's not a new deadline. We are saying, this is when it's happening. If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that's your choice," he said. He said the playbook was to apply "maximum pressure" and cited the European Union as an example, saying they are "making very good progress" after a slow start. EU and US negotiators are holding talks over the weekend, and France's finance minister said Saturday he hoped they could strike a deal this weekend. Other countries were still expressing unease, however. Japan 's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said Sunday he " won't easily compromise" in trade talks with Washington. And BRICS leaders of fast-growing economies meeting in Rio de Janeiro raised "serious concerns" that the "indiscriminate" import tariffs were illegal and risked hurting global trade. When probed about worries that steep levies could feed into broader US inflation, Bessent said there was a difference between "inflation and one-time price adjustments."
Fashion Network
7 hours ago
- Fashion Network
Investors head into Trump tariff deadline benumbed and blase
And they are not overly concerned. 'The market has gotten much more comfortable, more sanguine, when it comes to tariff news,' said Jeff Blazek, co-chief investment officer of multi-asset at Neuberger Berman in New York. 'The markets think that there is enough 'squishiness' in the deadlines – absent any major surprise – to not be too unsettled by more tariff news and believe that the worst-case scenarios are off the table now.' Both the tariff levels and effective dates have become moving targets. Trump said on Friday that tariffs ranging up to 70% could go into effect on August 1, levels far higher than the 10%-50% range he announced in April. So far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and an in-principle agreement with Vietnam. Deals that had been anticipated with India and Japan have failed to materialize, and there have been setbacks in talks with the European Union. World stocks are meanwhile at record highs, up 11% since April 2. They fell 14% in three trading sessions after that announcement but have since rallied 24%. "If Liberation Day was the earthquake, the tariff letters will be the aftershocks. They won't quite have the same impact on markets even if they are higher than the earlier 10%," said Rong Ren Goh, a portfolio manager in the fixed income team at Eastspring Investments in Singapore. "This financial system is so inundated with liquidity that it is hard to cash up or delever at the risk of lagging the markets, with April serving as a painful reminder for many who derisked and were then forced to chase the relentless recovery in the subsequent weeks." Investors have also been distracted by weeks of wrangling in Congress over Trump's massive tax and spending package, which he signed into law on Friday. Stock markets have celebrated the passage of the bill, which makes Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent, while bond investors are wary the measures could add more than $3 trillion to the nation's $36.2 trillion debt. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes closed at record highs on Friday, notching a third week of gains. Europe's STOXX 600 benchmark is up 9% in three months. But the risks of tariff-related inflation have weighed on U.S. Treasuries and the dollar, and jostled expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Rate futures show traders no longer expect a Fed rate cut this month and are pricing in a total of just two quarter-point reductions by year-end. The dollar has suffered a knock to its haven reputation from the dithering on tariffs. The dollar index, which reflects the U.S. currency's performance against a basket of six others, has had its worst first half of the year since 1973, declining some 11%. It has fallen by 6.6% since April 2 alone. "The markets are discounting a return to tariff levels of 35%, 40% or higher, and anticipating an across-the-board level of 10% or so,' said John Pantekidis, chief investment officer at TwinFocus in Boston. Pantekidis is cautiously optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks this year, but the one variable he is watching closely is interest rate levels. For now he expects to see interest rates dip in the second half, 'but if the bond market worries about the impact of the bill and rates go up, that's a different scenario.'
