What Japanese politics could look like after Upper House election

Japan Times

11-07-2025

While Upper House elections are often regarded as a referendum on the incumbent administration, the July 20 vote might assume a greater significance this time.
As the election campaigns continue, growing uncertainty over the future of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party-Komeito government is giving rise to a variety of scenarios for what's set to be a turbulent post-election season.
In a chamber with 248 seats, the majority is set at 125, with 75 of the coalition's seats not up for reelection this time. Early surveys have indicated there is a chance the coalition might fall short of the 50 seats it needs to retain its majority.
Such a fiasco would deal a blow to an administration already in a minority position in the Lower House and increase expectations of opposition parties stepping up.
However, no formal parliamentary nomination of the prime minister is contemplated after any Upper House election, which opens up the possibility of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba staying in power even after a setback. Under current rules, a parliamentary vote on the head of the government is required only following a Lower House vote or an en masse resignation of the Cabinet.
Here are some of the possible post-election landscapes awaiting the country:
Ruling coalition retains Upper House majority
The goal set by the LDP-Komeito coalition is seen as low, as Ishiba and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito are often reminded of in election debates. The loss of 16 seats — roughly a fourth of the coalition's seats up for contest this time — would still give it a majority.
The goal works more as insurance for Ishiba to help him save face and cling to the leadership even if the coalition has a poor showing.
Retaining a majority in the Upper House would cement the status quo, allowing the government to use it to block opposition-led initiatives in the Lower House and hasten debates in the chamber. In the final stages of the last parliamentary session, for instance, a bill to abolish a temporary tax on gasoline cleared the Lower House but was never voted on in the Upper House .
A weak performance, however, could trigger internal maneuvers within the LDP to try to oust Ishiba and elect a new party leader, who might not have the certainty of securing a majority vote in the Lower House for the position of prime minister.
On the contrary, a resounding win could strengthen Ishiba's position and fuel momentum for a snap election in the fall for the coalition to attempt to restore its majority in the Lower House.
Ruling coalition loses majority, but Ishiba stays PM
Falling below the majority threshold in the Upper House would severely hurt Ishiba's credibility as leader of the LDP and the nation — especially after last year's debacle in the general election.
Though he would seem like a lame duck, unless he voluntarily steps down, there is no formal procedure to force the prime minister out, even if there is strong pressure from his own party.
Controlling just a minority of seats in both chambers would force the government — which already has to make concessions to the opposition for every bill in the Lower House — to cede legislative powers to an emboldened opposition.
With Ishiba's coalition already running a minority government in the Lower House, losing its grip on the Upper House will further complicate the decision-making process. |
Bloomberg
The option of opening up the coalition to other parties — such as Nippon Ishin no Kai, the Democratic Party for the People or, potentially, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan — has its own downsides and would lay bare the fragility of the government. Large coalitions in Japan don't have a fortunate history, as the examples of an eight-party anti-LDP coalition in 1993 and a tripartite pact between the LDP, Komeito and the Liberal Party in the late 1990s have shown.
The idea of a prime minister staying in power even after a defeat in the Upper House is not unprecedented. In 2010, then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan clung to his position even after his Democratic Party of Japan lost control of the Upper House. However, unlike the LDP and Komeito currently, the DPJ-led coalition at the time enjoyed a supermajority in the Lower House.
LDP-Komeito loses majority and Ishiba steps down
Ishiba's potential resignation in the aftermath of an electoral botch would lead to an initial period of political turbulence.
The LDP would be expected to call for a presidential election and elect a new leader, who would then move to gain the support of parliament. Should the opposition fail to form a united front in a parliamentary vote, as happened last November , another minority government could be formed.
The LDP-Komeito coalition could agree to hand the prime minister seat to another party in exchange for an expansion of the government alliance.
A newly elected prime minister from another party could then move to dissolve the Lower House soon after the Upper House election in a bid to consolidate their power base.
Chances remain, however remote, the opposition could also join hands in the parliamentary vote and give birth to an opposition-led government. Given the current fragmentation of parliament, that would also likely be a coalition government.
With just a week left before election day, rhetoric on the campaign trail is expected to heat up — all while the parties mull over their post-election strategies.
'At the moment, we are doing our best to win this election,' Ishiba told a BS Fuji TV news program Thursday. '(After the election) many different political scenarios might be explored in order to rapidly address the many issues the country's facing.'