Massive Medicaid cuts to fuel midterm fights
With the GOP successfully passing the largest Medicaid cuts in history through President Trump's 'big beautiful bill,' the federal health program is all but certain to be a core issue for voters in the upcoming midterm elections.
© The Hill, Greg Nash
The law is set to require Medicaid beneficiaries to prove for the first time they are working or in school at least 80 hours per month, equal to part-time, to keep their health insurance, and it also requires more frequent eligibility checks and Medicaid recipients living above the poverty line to pay out-of-pocket copays for most services, including doctor visits and lab tests.
About 17 million people will become uninsured by 2034 because of the health provisions in the bill, as well as the expiration of ObamaCare subsidies, which the bill did not extend.
But a good chunk of the electorate isn't fully aware of the provisions included in the nearly 1,000-page reconciliation package, and campaign strategists know it's a matter of who can reach voters first.
'The key here for Republicans going into the midterms is to clearly go on offense and define the debate around Medicaid in particular today, not tomorrow, not next month, not in the fall, not next year. They need to do it in a unified and aggressive way today,' Kristin Davison, partner at the GOP consulting firm Axiom, told The Hill.
Several of the measures don't go into effect immediately, and the challenge for Democrats will be to keep the changes at top of mind for voters, even if they aren't experiencing them yet.
'There's an argument to be made here that if voters believe, and it is true that the unpopular bill is really bad for them, it doesn't matter if it's going to be bad for them tomorrow or next year,' a Democratic strategist told The Hill. 'If they believe it is bad for them, they will act on that opinion.'
Welcome to The Hill's Health Care newsletter, we're Nathaniel Weixel, Joseph Choi and Alejandra O'Connell-Domenech — every week we follow the latest moves on how Washington impacts your health.
Programming note: We will not publish tomorrow for the July 4 holiday. See you Monday!
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Essential Reads
How policy will be impacting the health care sector this week and beyond:
GOP megabill extends and expands compensation for nuclear weapons radiation victims
The Republican megabill passed by Congress on Thursday contains an extension and expansion of a program to compensate Americans who developed cancer from radiation exposure linked to the U.S. nuclear weapons program. The megabill revives a compensation program for victims who were exposed to this radiation that lapsed last year. It also expands it to new areas in states including Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Idaho and Missouri …
Supreme Court rebuffs Montana attempt to revive parental consent abortion law
The Supreme Court declined on Thursday to hear a case seeking to revive a Montana law that required parental consent for minors seeking abortions. The state argued the law should be allowed to take effect, because 'fundamental parental rights' outweigh a right to privacy that has long protected abortion in the deep red state. The parental consent law was first passed in 2013 but was subject to years of litigation and …
FDA upgrades blueberry recall to highest risk level
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) upgraded a blueberry recall this week to the highest risk level amid concerns of contamination. The FDA raised the recall of 400 boxes that weigh 30 pounds to Class I. The blueberry recall, which took place June 9, was initiated after Alma Pak International LLC of Alma, Ga. received a positive result of listeria monocytogenes during routine testing, according to the FDA. FDA's Class …
In Other News
Branch out with a different read from The Hill:
FDA vaccine official restricted COVID vaccine approvals against the advice of agency staff
WASHINGTON (AP) — The government's top vaccine official working under Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently restricted the approval of two COVID-19 vaccines, disregarding recommendations from government scientists, according to federal documents released Wednesday. The new memos from the Food and Drug Administration show how the agency's vaccine chief, Dr. Vinay Prasad, personally intervened to place restrictions …
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House sends GOP's 'big, beautiful bill' to Trump's desk in major win for Republicans
The 'big, beautiful bill' is heading to President Trump's desk. House Republicans passed the core of Trump's domestic policy agenda Thursday afternoon … Read more
What to know about the $6,000 'senior deduction' in GOP megabill
The Senate's version of the 'big, beautiful bill,' which passed Tuesday, includes a $6,000 tax deduction for Americans 65 or older. … Read more
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Fact check: Trump falsely claims his highly unpopular big bill is the ‘single most popular bill ever signed'
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CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
Fact check: Trump falsely claims his highly unpopular big bill is the ‘single most popular bill ever signed'
On Friday, before signing his massive domestic policy bill, President Donald Trump proclaimed at the White House that 'it's the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country,' adding for emphasis that 'this is the single most popular bill ever signed.' That is an up-is-down reversal of reality. The bill is wildly unpopular, poll after poll has found. While polls can be off, this bill wouldn't be popular – let alone the most popular US bill ever signed – even with a massive and widespread polling error. In a Fox News poll in mid-June, 59% of registered voters said they opposed the bill and 38% said they favored it, with another 3% saying they didn't know. In a Quinnipiac University poll in late June, 55% of registered voters said they opposed the bill and 29% said they supported it, with another 16% not weighing in. In a Pew Research Center poll in early June, 49% of adults said they were opposed and 29% said they were in favor, with 21% unsure. Reviewing these numbers and the similar findings of two other polls about the bill, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said on air on Monday: 'You just never see numbers this poor. I have been trying to look through the history books to find if there was another piece of legislation that was on the verge of passing that was as unpopular as this one, and…I cannot find one.' CNN senior reporter Aaron Blake reported June 20 that the polling numbers made the bill 'more unpopular than any piece of major legislation passed since at least 1990, according to data crunched by George Washington University political science professor Chris Warshaw.' And in an analysis published Friday, before Trump spoke, data journalist G. Elliott Morris wrote, 'On average across pollsters and methods, 31% of Americans support the One Big Beautiful Bill, while 54% oppose it. That net rating of -23 is, to put it mildly, absolutely abysmal.' It's possible that Trump has seen private polling that has found different numbers. And, of course, the popularity of legislation can improve after it passes and Americans feel its impacts; that's what happened with Obamacare. But if Trump has any evidence for his claim that this is the most popular bill in American history, he did not provide it on Friday. The president also made other false claims in his White House remarks: – A false claim that 'we've delivered … no tax on Social Security for our great seniors.' The bill does not completely eliminate tax on Social Security; rather, it creates a temporary additional tax deduction of $6,000 per person age 65 and older every year from 2025 through 2028 (it's a smaller deduction for individuals earning more than $75,000 per year). The White House has said that 88% of seniors will not pay tax on Social Security benefits with this additional deduction in place, up from 64% not paying tax on those benefits under current law, but even if the White House is right, the millions of seniors in the remaining 12% will still have to pay – and so will some Social Security recipients under the age of 65, who do not get this new deduction. – A false claim, which Trump has made repeatedly, that President Joe Biden allowed in '21 million' migrants. Through December 2024, the last full month under Biden, the country had recorded under 11 million nationwide 'encounters' with migrants during that administration, including millions who were rapidly expelled from the country. Even adding in so-called gotaways who evaded detection, estimated by House Republicans as being roughly 2.2 million, there's no way the total is 21 million.
CNN
an hour ago
- CNN
Fact check: Trump falsely claims his highly unpopular big bill is the ‘single most popular bill ever signed'
On Friday, before signing his massive domestic policy bill, President Donald Trump proclaimed at the White House that 'it's the most popular bill ever signed in the history of our country,' adding for emphasis that 'this is the single most popular bill ever signed.' That is an up-is-down reversal of reality. The bill is wildly unpopular, poll after poll has found. While polls can be off, this bill wouldn't be popular – let alone the most popular US bill ever signed – even with a massive and widespread polling error. In a Fox News poll in mid-June, 59% of registered voters said they opposed the bill and 38% said they favored it, with another 3% saying they didn't know. In a Quinnipiac University poll in late June, 55% of registered voters said they opposed the bill and 29% said they supported it, with another 16% not weighing in. In a Pew Research Center poll in early June, 49% of adults said they were opposed and 29% said they were in favor, with 21% unsure. Reviewing these numbers and the similar findings of two other polls about the bill, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said on air on Monday: 'You just never see numbers this poor. I have been trying to look through the history books to find if there was another piece of legislation that was on the verge of passing that was as unpopular as this one, and…I cannot find one.' CNN senior reporter Aaron Blake reported June 20 that the polling numbers made the bill 'more unpopular than any piece of major legislation passed since at least 1990, according to data crunched by George Washington University political science professor Chris Warshaw.' And in an analysis published Friday, before Trump spoke, data journalist G. Elliott Morris wrote, 'On average across pollsters and methods, 31% of Americans support the One Big Beautiful Bill, while 54% oppose it. That net rating of -23 is, to put it mildly, absolutely abysmal.' It's possible that Trump has seen private polling that has found different numbers. And, of course, the popularity of legislation can improve after it passes and Americans feel its impacts; that's what happened with Obamacare. But if Trump has any evidence for his claim that this is the most popular bill in American history, he did not provide it on Friday. The president also made other false claims in his White House remarks: – A false claim that 'we've delivered … no tax on Social Security for our great seniors.' The bill does not completely eliminate tax on Social Security; rather, it creates a temporary additional tax deduction of $6,000 per person age 65 and older every year from 2025 through 2028 (it's a smaller deduction for individuals earning more than $75,000 per year). The White House has said that 88% of seniors will not pay tax on Social Security benefits with this additional deduction in place, up from 64% not paying tax on those benefits under current law, but even if the White House is right, the millions of seniors in the remaining 12% will still have to pay – and so will some Social Security recipients under the age of 65, who do not get this new deduction. – A false claim, which Trump has made repeatedly, that President Joe Biden allowed in '21 million' migrants. Through December 2024, the last full month under Biden, the country had recorded under 11 million nationwide 'encounters' with migrants during that administration, including millions who were rapidly expelled from the country. Even adding in so-called gotaways who evaded detection, estimated by House Republicans as being roughly 2.2 million, there's no way the total is 21 million.
