Salvaging the truce - World - Al-Ahram Weekly

Al-Ahram Weekly

18-02-2025

Hamas has leveraged the release of Israeli hostages not only as a demonstration of power but also as a means to convey its messages to Israel. This prompted Israel to respond with the same level of defiance, particularly as the truce teeters on the brink of collapse. Israel bears primary responsibility for the fragility of the truce due to its failure to uphold commitments made to mediators and its refusal to implement the humanitarian protocol outlined in the agreement.
During the sixth exchange of hostages in the first phase of the truce, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad released three Israeli hostages who had been held in Gaza since October 2023. The spectacle of hostages being brought on a stage in Khan Younis near the residence of Yahya Al-Sinwar where they were compelled to address the public in Hebrew, urging the continuation of the deal to secure the release of remaining captives, was repeatedly orchestrated in the presence of armed Qassam Brigades militants.
This time, however, the handover process was filled with messages deliberately crafted by Hamas to reach key parties, prime among them the US and Israel. For instance, Hamas presented an hourglass as a gift to one of the released hostages — a masked threat to Israel, urging it to expedite negotiations for the second phase and adhere to its commitments. The message was clear: time is running out for the remaining hostages, and their release can only be secured through negotiations.
Perhaps the most striking message Hamas sought to convey, not only to Israel but to the international community, was its categorical rejection of displacement. Banners were displayed on the platform reading 'No migration except to Jerusalem' in both Arabic and English, rejecting Donald Trump's forced migration proposal. The scene indicated that this rejection extends beyond official and popular circles in Egypt and Jordan to the very heart of Gaza. While Hamas may not represent all Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip on various issues, there is broad alignment between the group and the people regarding the rejection of displacement.
In addition, the platform exhibited Arab flags, prominently displaying the Egyptian flag in an acknowledgement of Egypt's pivotal role in thwarting the displacement scheme and as an affirmation of the strength and wisdom of that position. The Saudi flag was raised in a symbolic nod to Riyadh's stance against normalisation with Israel in the absence of a declared Palestinian state. Collectively, these gestures signalled a broader Arab consensus rejecting US-Israeli initiatives.
Meanwhile, Israel is adapting to Hamas' adept use of propaganda, preparing counterstrategies carefully after learning from its misjudgements leading up to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood. While Israel dismisses Hamas' gestures during hostage handovers as desperate attempts to mask its defeat, these displays continue to provoke the occupying power. Hamas' release of captives amid the ruins of Gaza is a testament to strategic miscalculations that have now reduced the movement to negotiating for the entry of tents and mobile homes. Israel, in response, showed Palestinian prisoners before their release, dressed in uniforms emblazoned with the Star of David and bearing the phrase 'We will not forgive, we will not forget.'
Amid these tensions, negotiations for the second phase of the truce are in jeapordy. Israel signed an agreement stipulating that discussions with Hamas on the next phase should commence 'no later than' the 16th day of the ceasefire — nearly two weeks ago — with the aim of concluding them by the 35th day. However, even if both sides were inclined to advance the agreement, the dwindling timeframe poses a serious challenge to finalising the details in a manner that accommodates the concerns of both parties. This second phase of negotiations is particularly critical, as it marks the transition from security arrangements to the political dimension intended to lay the groundwork for a final settlement.
Both Hamas and Israel are sending contradictory signals regarding the next phase and the stability of the agreement. Despite conveying messages to mediators, foremost among them the Egyptian mediator, implying that it will not be part of Gaza in the day after, Hamas has issued statements through some of its leaders that starkly contradict this position. The prospect of Hamas's departure from Gaza is not a matter of choice but rather a prerequisite for Israel's withdrawal from the Strip and the commencement of Gaza's reconstruction.
Regarding Israel, the military mobilisation on its southern front suggests preparedness for a collapse of the agreement and a potential return to war. This is a scenario further reinforced by the tons of bombs Israel received from the US. At the same time, the Israeli military has devised a plan to facilitate the voluntary migration of Gaza residents, aligning with Israel's refusal to permit the entry of heavy machinery and mobile homes under the humanitarian protocol of the truce.
Israel may be aiming to prolong the first phase to secure the release of additional hostages or to enter the second phase under conditions more favourable to it, potentially proposing a mass release of hostages in exchange for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. This proposition is unlikely to gain Hamas' approval, particularly as it entails the movement's disarmament and complete removal from the Strip. This is why Benjamin Netanyahu dispatched a delegation to Doha for the second-phase negotiations that lacks either experience or meaningful authority.
On the American side, despite its role as a guarantor of the truce, Trump's statements, particularly regarding the release of hostages, suggest that the US is unwilling to adhere to the agreement in its current form. Instead, it appears to be shifting responsibility onto Israel, allowing it to determine whether to accept the release of only three hostages last Saturday while granting it free rein in deciding the next course of action. This signals US dissatisfaction with the failure of its plans to control Gaza and displace the Palestinians, suggesting its desire to escalate the situation to ensure that the American vision remains the only viable alternative.
At this point, mediators must work on two tracks to salvage what remains of the truce. The first involves ensuring Hamas' removal from Gaza's political landscape in the day after, a condition that both the US and Israel consider non-negotiable. Secondly, this removal is also a guarantor to regional and international sponsors for the reconstruction of Gaza. It must, therefore, be a central pillar of the Egyptian reconstruction initiative that explicitly excludes the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza. To garner broader support, the project must be promoted at both the regional and international levels, generating momentum behind the Egyptian proposal. This aligns with the historical rights of the Palestinian people and international legal principles, while also reinforcing the fact that any forced displacement of Palestinians into Egyptian territory, should hostilities resume, would directly contradict the terms of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty.
* A version of this article appears in print in the 20 February, 2025 edition of Al-Ahram Weekly
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