Gold price prediction: What's the gold rate outlook for July 28, 2025 week - should you buy or sell?
Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are likely to trade sideways as the safe haven appeal of the yellow metal somewhat diminishes with the US sealing trade deals with many countries.
Manav Modi, Senior Analyst, Commodity Research at Motilal Oswal Financial services Ltd shares his outlook on gold prices and strategy for gold investors:
Gold prices edged lower last week after briefly touching the ₹1 lakh mark domestically, pressured by profit booking and easing global trade tensions. The safe-haven appeal of bullion waned as the US and European Union reached a framework trade agreement, imposing a 15% tariff on most EU goods—significantly lower than the initially threatened rate—mirroring a similar pact with Japan.
This development helped avert a broader trade war between two of the world's largest trading blocs. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened, limiting gold's downside, as mixed economic data—including lower jobless claims, strong services PMI, and shrinking manufacturing activity—clouded the outlook for interest rate changes.
While President Trump continued to criticize the Federal Reserve's stance, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach, making no clear commitment to rate cuts.
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Trump's unexpected meeting with Powell added to political intrigue but failed to shift market expectations materially.
On the global front, US and Chinese negotiators are scheduled to meet in Stockholm in hopes of extending a trade truce, it is believed that this negotiations and 90 day breather could extend further. With the Fed's policy meeting at the centre of attention, along with key economic indicators such as GDP, consumer confidence, PCE inflation, and payroll figures.
These economic figures around the Fed policy meeting could decide direction for Gold this week. US growth has been contracting, as seen in the past two numbers, however jobs market data is still holding firm making it tough for the Federal reserve to take a call on interest rate cuts. Till now the probability rate for the July meeting has not changed, there are less chances that it will happen this week, however any clues from the Fed Governor on rate cuts further this year might provide a trigger in the market.
Gold Price Stance: Sideways to lower - Rs 96,000 - Rs 99,500
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