Rohit Srivastava sees limited downside, eyes fresh highs for Nifty in July
Synopsis Despite mixed earnings influenced by advanced taxes and GST, market momentum, fueled by liquidity and interest rate changes, is expected to sustain an upward trend. Rohit Srivastava suggests a buy-on-dip strategy, anticipating a move towards all-time highs, particularly in sectors like metals and interest rate-sensitive areas such as autos, realty, and financials. "Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs," says Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts.
ADVERTISEMENT So, not a great day today as we can see the markets are not able to hold on to the gains, but then still the undertone is bullish, buy on dips, what is your recommendation on Nifty and Bank Nifty if at all someone wants to initiate any kind of trade positionally?
Rohit Srivastava: Today is a good day to just sit back and wait for this correction to end. But the view remains that somewhere it is a buy on dip. Let the dip happen and take that opportunity because the overall trend is likely to be up. We have broken out last week out of that congestion zone that we were there for almost three weeks below 25,100. And having done that, the potential is that we will continue to add to those gains in the month ahead in the month of July. Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs.
Yes, of course, the index-wise markets are not really showing good signs of contribution and positivity, but if we see news flows as well as the stock specific action, there is a lot of action on that side. What are your stock specific approaches for the day?
Rohit Srivastava: Well, there are sectors that you are seeing performance in, for example, metals, so that is clearly showing up in terms of positive performance which has to do more with what is happening on the dollar, which then we end up anticipating higher commodity prices and a positive commodity cycle. So, I think that is something which is standing out and the dollar has been falling for a large part of the entire week, so that helps. Second is, continue to focus on interest rate sensitive areas because the interest rate cycle is down. Even though we have had two cuts and a potential pause, there would be eventually more cuts on the table and therefore, rate sensitives is where the action will continue to build over time, that includes sectors like autos, realty, and they become interesting play and even financials, financials are probably poised to be one of the top performing sectors for the year as we go along and as credit offtake really picks up and also, they remain relatively more undervalued compared to other sectors, so that is the easy part to really focus on. But I do think other segments which have done well over the last two years including power which is being talked about less and less will also come back into focus.
Since you have mentioned your sectors over here, I just wanted to figure out if there is something specific in auto that you would want to highlight. Looking at the mixed bag numbers of sales across the board, what is on your radar and any specific buying call in any of the counters auto, auto ancillaries?
Rohit Srivastava: No, I cannot really recommend any stocks.
Your view on the sector and auto ancillaries?
Rohit Srivastava: Yes, that is what I have broadly given my outlook on these sectors.
ADVERTISEMENT Specific take looking at the sales numbers of auto companies.
Rohit Srivastava: So, like I said, these are near-term concerns. Eventually the interest rate cycle is what drives buying in this segment and as the rate cycle continues lower, you will see an improvement going forward in the next few quarters. So, the market might just end up discounting some of the near-term factors because you have already seen a significant correction last year in the auto index. So, a lot of the negatives might get discounted, which is why in the beginning I said this quarter may be very interesting in terms of results because people may not expect great numbers but we might still end up absorbing a lot of whatever happens in terms of volatility.
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