Latest news with #RohitSrivastava
Economic Times
02-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Rohit Srivastava sees limited downside, eyes fresh highs for Nifty in July
So, a lot of the negatives might get discounted, which is why in the beginning I said this quarter may be very interesting in terms of results because people may not expect great numbers but we might still end up absorbing a lot of whatever happens in terms of volatility. Synopsis Despite mixed earnings influenced by advanced taxes and GST, market momentum, fueled by liquidity and interest rate changes, is expected to sustain an upward trend. Rohit Srivastava suggests a buy-on-dip strategy, anticipating a move towards all-time highs, particularly in sectors like metals and interest rate-sensitive areas such as autos, realty, and financials. "Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs," says Rohit Srivastava, Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts. ADVERTISEMENT So, not a great day today as we can see the markets are not able to hold on to the gains, but then still the undertone is bullish, buy on dips, what is your recommendation on Nifty and Bank Nifty if at all someone wants to initiate any kind of trade positionally? Rohit Srivastava: Today is a good day to just sit back and wait for this correction to end. But the view remains that somewhere it is a buy on dip. Let the dip happen and take that opportunity because the overall trend is likely to be up. We have broken out last week out of that congestion zone that we were there for almost three weeks below 25,100. And having done that, the potential is that we will continue to add to those gains in the month ahead in the month of July. Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs. Yes, of course, the index-wise markets are not really showing good signs of contribution and positivity, but if we see news flows as well as the stock specific action, there is a lot of action on that side. What are your stock specific approaches for the day? Rohit Srivastava: Well, there are sectors that you are seeing performance in, for example, metals, so that is clearly showing up in terms of positive performance which has to do more with what is happening on the dollar, which then we end up anticipating higher commodity prices and a positive commodity cycle. So, I think that is something which is standing out and the dollar has been falling for a large part of the entire week, so that helps. Second is, continue to focus on interest rate sensitive areas because the interest rate cycle is down. Even though we have had two cuts and a potential pause, there would be eventually more cuts on the table and therefore, rate sensitives is where the action will continue to build over time, that includes sectors like autos, realty, and they become interesting play and even financials, financials are probably poised to be one of the top performing sectors for the year as we go along and as credit offtake really picks up and also, they remain relatively more undervalued compared to other sectors, so that is the easy part to really focus on. But I do think other segments which have done well over the last two years including power which is being talked about less and less will also come back into focus. Since you have mentioned your sectors over here, I just wanted to figure out if there is something specific in auto that you would want to highlight. Looking at the mixed bag numbers of sales across the board, what is on your radar and any specific buying call in any of the counters auto, auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: No, I cannot really recommend any stocks. Your view on the sector and auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: Yes, that is what I have broadly given my outlook on these sectors. ADVERTISEMENT Specific take looking at the sales numbers of auto companies. Rohit Srivastava: So, like I said, these are near-term concerns. Eventually the interest rate cycle is what drives buying in this segment and as the rate cycle continues lower, you will see an improvement going forward in the next few quarters. So, the market might just end up discounting some of the near-term factors because you have already seen a significant correction last year in the auto index. 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Time of India
02-07-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Rohit Srivastava sees limited downside, eyes fresh highs for Nifty in July
"Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs," says Rohit Srivastava , Founder, Strike Money Analytics & Indiacharts. So, not a great day today as we can see the markets are not able to hold on to the gains, but then still the undertone is bullish, buy on dips, what is your recommendation on Nifty and Bank Nifty if at all someone wants to initiate any kind of trade positionally? Rohit Srivastava: Today is a good day to just sit back and wait for this correction to end. But the view remains that somewhere it is a buy on dip. Let the dip happen and take that opportunity because the overall trend is likely to be up. We have broken out last week out of that congestion zone that we were there for almost three weeks below 25,100. And having done that, the potential is that we will continue to add to those gains in the month ahead in the month of July. Even though the earning season could have a pretty mixed picture given the kind of numbers we have seen from advanced taxes or from GST, but the momentum simply driven by liquidity, the interest rate changes is what will keep it perked up and therefore, purely when we are talking about the index, the downside is limited to either 25,400 or a worst case if at all it breaks that down to 25,300, but eventually we should be headed towards all-time highs. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like 기미 잡티, 이제 헛돈 쓰지말고 집에서 이렇게 해보세요 두아이연구원 Undo Yes, of course, the index-wise markets are not really showing good signs of contribution and positivity, but if we see news flows as well as the stock specific action, there is a lot of action on that side. What are your stock specific approaches for the day? Rohit Srivastava: Well, there are sectors that you are seeing performance in, for example, metals, so that is clearly showing up in terms of positive performance which has to do more with what is happening on the dollar, which then we end up anticipating higher commodity prices and a positive commodity cycle. So, I think that is something which is standing out and the dollar has been falling for a large part of the entire week, so that helps. Second is, continue to focus on interest rate sensitive areas because the interest rate cycle is down. Even though we have had two cuts and a potential pause, there would be eventually more cuts on the table and therefore, rate sensitives is where the action will continue to build over time, that includes sectors like autos, realty, and they become interesting play and even financials, financials are probably poised to be one of the top performing sectors for the year as we go along and as credit offtake really picks up and also, they remain relatively more undervalued compared to other sectors, so that is the easy part to really focus on. But I do think other segments which have done well over the last two years including power which is being talked about less and less will also come back into focus. Since you have mentioned your sectors over here, I just wanted to figure out if there is something specific in auto that you would want to highlight. Looking at the mixed bag numbers of sales across the board, what is on your radar and any specific buying call in any of the counters auto, auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: No, I cannot really recommend any stocks. Live Events Your view on the sector and auto ancillaries? Rohit Srivastava: Yes, that is what I have broadly given my outlook on these sectors. Specific take looking at the sales numbers of auto companies. Rohit Srivastava: So, like I said, these are near-term concerns. Eventually the interest rate cycle is what drives buying in this segment and as the rate cycle continues lower, you will see an improvement going forward in the next few quarters. So, the market might just end up discounting some of the near-term factors because you have already seen a significant correction last year in the auto index. So, a lot of the negatives might get discounted, which is why in the beginning I said this quarter may be very interesting in terms of results because people may not expect great numbers but we might still end up absorbing a lot of whatever happens in terms of volatility.
Mint
30-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Indian stock market: 5 key triggers that could drive Nifty 50 to 26,000 in the short term
The Nifty 50, the benchmark of the Indian stock market, is hovering near 25,600, eyeing a reclaim of the 26,000 mark. The index is now about 3 per cent down from its all-time high of 26,277.35, which it scaled on September 27 last year. Amid global turmoil, tariff-related concerns and weak earnings, the domestic market has performed well in the first half of the calendar year 2025 (H1CY25). On a monthly scale, the Nifty 50 has been in the green since March this year. "Nifty has managed to absorb most of the negative news in the last two months, from wars and geopolitics to the tariffs. While that was happening, global liquidity was rising. Whether you consider US M2 (measure of the money supply) going higher or the rate cuts in Europe and India. This has kept markets elevated and hopeful that the earnings slowdown will revive into the year-end," Rohit Srivastava, the founder and market strategist at observed. The index is expected to scale fresh record highs in the second half of the year, as the medium-term outlook for the market remains positive, supported by the country's healthy macroeconomic fundamentals and expectations that tariff-related uncertainties will recede. Let's take a look at five key factors that could drive the Nifty 50 to 26,000 or even to uncharted territories in the short term: Investors are focusing on the India-US trade negotiations as the 9 July deadline approaches. So far, only two countries—China and the UK—have signed trade deals with the US. India and Japan are expected to be the next countries that could strike trade deals with the US. On Friday, Trump said that the White House was looking into an agreement with India that would give it the 'right to go in and trade' with the country. Meanwhile, a PTI report, quoting sources, suggested that India-US trade negotiations for an interim trade agreement are progressing well. A favourable trade deal could boost market sentiment, propelling the Nifty 50 to fresh highs. "One big kicker for the market is the long-awaited US-India trade deal. A lot is expected, and more than anything else, expect the uncertainty to die. Business will be back to normal," said Arun Kejriwal, Founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. Q1FY26 earnings are expected to be better due to lower inflation, three successive rate cuts by the RBI and healthy macroeconomic growth. "The larger section of companies is expected to benefit from three successive rate cuts by the RBI. The impact of the first two cuts will be felt on corporations' bottom lines, which should help in better earnings," said Kejriwal. Healthy earnings of Indian corporates will ease the concerns over elevated valuations and drive the market to the 26,000 mark or even beyond. The IMD has predicted an above-normal monsoon this year, which is expected to keep food inflation under control. Lower inflation would raise the prospects of further rate cuts by the RBI and reduce input costs for corporates, thereby augmenting their profitability. A healthy and evenly spread monsoon will also underpin market sentiment. G Chokkalingam, the founder and head of research of Equinomics Research Private Limited, pointed out that cumulative rainfall is also in surplus so far. "As of this morning, cumulative rainfall as of yesterday in June is 8 per cent above the long-term average rainfall. This is a highly positive development for the markets. It can help the output of the agricultural sector to grow significantly and thereby help the overall GDP to grow faster," said Chokkalingam. "A successful monsoon helps in moderating or keeping in check crop prices, and therefore inflation rates tend to remain modest. Already, both retail and wholesale inflation rates are at record low levels. Therefore, a good monsoon would help in the continuation of the reversal of the interest rate cycle in the economy. The same would help both the economy and corporate world to gain from improvements in aggregate demand in the system," said Chokkalingam. The dollar index is hovering near its 52-week low. If it remains in this lower range for an extended period, it could potentially trigger healthy foreign capital inflows into the Indian market, driving it to new highs. "We are looking at 28,000 by the year-end with the potential of upward revisions as markets price in a move to a dovish Fed in 2026. The falling dollar will drive better inflows into emerging markets, and India stands out as a winner there as well. A good monsoon and lower interest rates should create the growth momentum for this year," said Srivastava. Experts say if the index holds above 25,700 decisively, it may reclaim the 26,000 mark soon. According to Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, the 25,700–25,900 zone is likely to act as immediate resistance. "A convincing breakout above this range could pave the way for a new leg higher. However, any close below 25,300 would signal a failed breakout," said Patel. Kejriwal said that the Nifty 50 index won't climb to the 26,000 mark quickly without supportive news flow. On the support side, Kejriwal said the 25,200 mark would act as strong support. Read all market-related news here A convincing breakout above this range could pave the way for a new leg higher. Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
Mint
08-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
Caution rings among investors as India -Pak tensions escalate
Mumbai: Markets which had so far discounted a full-fledged war between India and Pakistan seem to have raised a note of caution in the last two-and-a-half hours of trade on Thursday, when news surfaced of India thwarting Pakistan's missile attack on 15 of its military installations on the intervening night of 7-8 May. The escalation followed multiple air strikes conducted by India on Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir in the wee hours of Wednesday to avenge the massacre of 26 tourists in Pahalgam by Pakistan-backed terrorists on 22 April. The aggregate Nifty put-call ratio (PCR) hit 1.89 on Thursday, the highest reading since the data has been collated on this variable from 1 April 2021, by analytics firm IndiaCharts. Simply put, this means for every 100 calls traded on Thursday, 189 puts changed hands. When more puts are traded relative to calls, it reflects heightened caution among investors and traders who demand more of them. While buyers wanted more of them, sellers refrained from selling them as many by end of the day, given that they would lose hugely if the Nifty falls on Friday or next week. Though volumes were high during the day, put sellers squared off their positions by the end of day, fearing volatility ahead. This became evident in the outstanding or open interest put-call ratio dipping to a provisional 0.86 on Thursday from 0.97 a day earlier-a clear sign of heightened volatility in the sessions ahead. Volumes refer to the number of contracts traded during the day and open interest refers to positions carried forward. While put-to-call volumes hit a multi-year high, the open interest PCR fell, reflecting fear among option sellers of carrying forward short put positions. If the Nifty falls in sessions ahead, the put sellers will be subjected to huge losses. That's why they sold fewer puts than calls by the end of day, a signal of heightened caution, said market analysts. 'While panic didn't strike stock market investors today (Thursday), following news reports of a rise in escalation between the two sides, they surely became more cautious, something which we didn't see since the Pahalgam attacks," said Rohit Srivastava, founder of IndiaCharts. The heightened caution was also reflected by fear gauge India Vix rising by 10.21% to 21.01, the highest since 7 April when Vix surged 65.69% to 22.79 in the wake of the global trade war intensifying. Vix rises when uncertainty increases and falls when investor confidence increases. A rise in Vix raises the price of puts relative to call options, while a fall means put prices rise less than calls. Weekly Nifty options now indicate a range of 2.17% up or down from 24300. The Nifty closed at 24,273.8 on Thursday, down 0.6%. Data indicates a range of 23,771-24,829 over the next few sessions, with a bias for the downside. Market expert Swarup Mohanty, vice chairman and chief executive officer of Mirae Asset Investment Managers, said his policy was to stay invested in Indian equities at all times and any drawdown is used to invest in 'quality'. Nilesh Shah, managing director of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Ltd, expects any potential conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbours to be limited and not prolonged despite the two sides climbing up the escalatory ladder on Wednesday and Thursday. He expects the markets to stabilise in light of a limited conflict.
Mint
08-05-2025
- Business
- Mint
FPIs turn bullish on index futures amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions, but risks loom
MUMBAI : Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) are showing growing confidence in India's markets, undeterred by the escalating tensions between India and Pakistan. On the heels of India's air strikes across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, FPIs made a notable shift by turning net long on index futures (Nifty and Bank Nifty) for the first time in seven months. While this move signals optimism, analysts warn that any retaliatory action from Pakistan could change the market's trajectory. On Wednesday, FPIs turned net long by 458 contracts—their first net long position since 4 October, when they held 27,662 contracts, according to IndiaCharts. Read this | FPIs bet on limited Nifty movement amid simmering India-Pakistan tensions This shift in index futures follows their return as net buyers in the cash market after six months of relentless selling, during which they offloaded ₹2.85 trillion worth of Indian shares through March, NSDL data shows. The reversal suggests a partial diversion of funds from the US to other markets amid a weaker dollar and trade war uncertainties. FPIs' renewed buying has helped fuel a 12.3% rebound in the Nifty, which rose from a low of 21,743.65 on 7 April to 24,414.40 by Wednesday's close. In April alone, FPIs invested ₹3,243.03 crore in the cash market—their first net buying since October—with additional inflows of ₹7,954.17 crore in May, per NSDL data. Their buying of index futures reflects a shift in sentiment toward India after a prolonged period of bearishness in both the cash and derivatives segments. This shift comes amid ongoing global tariff tensions and India's retaliatory air strikes on Pakistan following the 22 April terrorist attack in Pahalgam, where 26 people were killed, according to the defence ministry. "Markets haven't really priced-in any retaliatory action from Pakistan, after the Indian air strikes," highlighted Nilesh Shah, managing director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company, attributing the strong institutional flows to investor optimism. But he warned that any escalation from Pakistan could negatively impact the markets. Read this | Tensions are rising on the border but FPIs aren't worried Rohit Srivastava, founder of IndiaCharts, said he would wait to see a few more sessions of FPI behaviour before concluding that there's been a "change of slant" in the cash and derivatives segments. FPIs had been building short positions in index futures since October, reaching a record high of 200,890 contracts by 24 February this year. Since then, they have been steadily closing out those bearish bets, eventually turning net long on Wednesday. Before the recent shift, FPIs held a record high long position of 130,719 contracts on 4 July last year, per IndiaCharts data, adjusted for the Nifty lot size revision to 75 shares from 25 shares effective November. Also read | Will lower tariffs lure back FPIs from other emerging markets? Srivastava noted that the Nifty is approaching a key resistance level of 24,545, representing a 61.8% retracement of its fall from a record high of 26,277.35 on 27 September 27 to the 7 April low. The index would consolidate unless it "decisively breaks" the important resistance of 24,545, according to Srivastava.
