In Bihar, voters no longer believe solely in caste or patronage

Indian Express

08-05-2025

In poll-bound Bihar, the story seems similar, yet different. The evolving preference of alliances, seemingly shifting trends in voter preferences and the emergence of newer players, like Prashant Kishore, who is no amateur to the politics of the state, hint at a change in the political permutations and combinations.
At the core of this evolving drama is the assertive strategy of the BJP that, besides retaining its traditional upper-caste vote base, is also trying to make inroads into the EBC communities that have been a traditional support base of their ally, the JD(U). On the other hand, Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party (RLJP) leader Pashupati Paras's decision to withdraw from the NDA and his growing inclinations towards the Mahagathbandhan can also change the political equation in the state.
Looking at the assembly elections that were held after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a discernible pattern could be found. The elections in Jharkhand, Maharashtra and Jammu and Kashmir have highlighted a subtle yet significant demand that emanates from the electorate: A desire for coherence, not merely in promises but more so in principles. Not only in alliances but more robustly in the alignment between allies. The question for Bihar is: Do ideological commitments matter to Bihar's voters, or has coalition politics been reduced to little more than arithmetic?
Plotting the political coalitions on an ideological compass, existing scholarship talk about mainly of three distinct kinds of coalitions: Programmatic proximity (how ideologically aligned partners behave on core issues), strategic coherence (whether alliances are formed for enduring governance or short-term gain), and perceived stability (whether voters believe the alliance will last and function effectively). Locating this framework in the context of Bihar, the BJP-led NDA alliance, by weaving Hindu nationalism, development populism, infrastructural projects and anti-dynastic rhetoric, seems to be resonating with the electorate and projecting itself as a stable and strategically coherent alliance. Despite programmatic gaps between the BJP and its allies, it seems to be capturing the imaginations of the voters by remaining consistent over the years.
However, the Mahagathbandhan, constituted by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Congress, and the Left parties, founded on the legacy of Mandal politics, secular resistance and social justice, suffers from an erosion of narrative. In the run up to the elections, this secular-socialist alliance displays ideological convergence through messages like RJD's promise of Rs 1 lakh to women in low-income households, Congress's Mahila Ki Baat, and the Left's focus on labour and land reforms. But the alliance is broadly perceived by the people of Bihar as fragmented and often, directionless. These narratives have been further compounded by the departure of the JD(U) in 2024 that weakened its strategic coherence; RJD's dynastic perception, leadership rigidity, ideological ambiguity, corruption allegations, credibility issues and urban disconnect.
As far as Congress is concerned, alliance dependency, ideological ambiguity, leadership vacuum and lack of rooted messaging affect its relevance. Moreover, the Left's class-based politics in a state where caste is the dominant factor, alongside its regionally concentrated influence (in parts of Bhojpur, Siwan, and central Bihar), keep its impact localised.
Meanwhile, newer actors like Jan Suraaj, led by Prashant Kishor, promised to transcend the limits of legacy politics. With a platform emphasising governance transparency, grassroots consultation, and non-dynastic politics, it seems to have attracted the attention of aspirational and first-time voters. Yet, lacking a robust caste base and suffering from limited organisational depth, the party remains electorally peripheral. For Congress, the Jan Suraaj scored high on ideological clarity but low on perceived stability and viability — a reminder that authenticity alone cannot substitute for grassroots infrastructure.
The BJP–JD(U) relationship has been one of strategic convergence despite ideological divergence. On the ideological compass framework, they exhibit low programmatic proximity, moderate strategic coherence (when in an alliance), and fluctuating perceived stability, which voters in Bihar increasingly recognise. The 2025 elections reflect the long-term strain of this mismatch, as Nitish's credibility wanes and the BJP asserts itself as the more dominant and ideologically consistent pole.
The churning in Bihar politics also hints at a maturation of the electorate's expectations, challenging the erstwhile characterisation of Bihar's voters as people whose votes are based on caste or patronage. On the contrary, it now shows a sort of hybrid rationality where the voters arguably will put more emphasis on ideological coherence, governance accountability, and alliance credibility, instead of opportunistic shuffles, unstable partnerships, and incoherent agendas.
The promise of the enumeration of caste in the census seems to further strengthen the NDA's position. With the intent to further its outreach to the non-dominant castes — as per Bihar's caste survey, 63 per cent of the population belonged to the OBC and EBC categories — the BJP seems to be engaging in symbolic accommodation by bringing caste aspirations into its broader Hindu nationalist narrative. As the compass framework evokes, this would also mean not the displacement of identity politics, but its integration with ideology and trust. Through these, the BJP-led NDA alliance dented the last existing rhetoric of the Opposition.
The post-2024 assembly elections suggest that the voters don't like confusion within alliances where, despite perceived ideological proximity, programmatic foundation is premised on confusion and uncertainty. If this hypothesis remains true for the assembly polls in Bihar too, the voters would use this ideological compass to evaluate not only manifestos, but intent; not just candidates but the clarity, credibility and commitment of the coalitions.
Srivastava is assistant professor, Centre for Electoral Management Studies, TISS, Mumbai. Buttan, is teaching fellow, Centre for Electoral Management Studies, TISS, Mumbai