What could happen to mortgage rates this May?
Some changes could be coming for mortgage rates this May, experts say.
Getty Images
Mortgage rates remain higher than many homebuyers prefer right now as inflation persists and the Federal Reserve maintains elevated benchmark rates. And with May approaching, bringing both market changes and another scheduled Fed meeting, uncertainty looms.
So what could happen to mortgage interest rates this upcoming month? We consulted mortgage lending experts to break down three possible scenarios for May's mortgage rates. Below, they explain what might push rates up, down or keep them steady — and what that means for your homebuying decisions.
Compare today's top mortgage loan options online now.
What could happen to mortgage rates this May?
"I'm predicting mortgage rates will go slightly lower in May 2025, likely settling between 6.4% and 6.6% for a 30-year fixed," says Steven Glick, a licensed mortgage loan officer and director of mortgage sales at HomeAbroad, a real estate investment fintech company.
Other mortgage experts echo similar sentiments about limited movement ahead. For example, Karen Mayfield, national head of originations at Multiply Mortgage, a mortgage-as-a-benefit provider, expects daily volatility — but within a 0.25% to 0.375% range in movement overall for the next few months.
But mortgage forecasts are just educated guesses based on trends we're seeing. Let's examine what could drive rates in each possible direction next month:
Why mortgage rates could drop in May
"For rates to dip, we'd need a clear sign the economy's cooling off," explains Glick. "If inflation falls closer to the Fed's 2% target [and] the Consumer Price Index drops to 2.5% or lower in April's report, that could spark talk of a Fed rate cut." When Treasury yields drop in response to cooling inflation, mortgage rates often follow.
Consumer behavior already suggests this cooling may be underway. "The consumer has lost some confidence in the market," notes Dean Rathbun, executive vice president at United American Mortgage Corporation. He's seeing reduced spending on goods and services. This could signal to markets that economic growth is stalling, potentially leading to lower interest rates.
Find out how affordable the right mortgage loan could be now.
Why mortgage rates could stay the same in May
"Rates could hold steady if the economy keeps humming along without big shocks," says Glick. "If inflation stays around 2.8% to 3%, and job growth continues at a moderate pace, the Fed's likely to keep their hands off the benchmark rate at the May meeting."
This scenario would keep Treasury yields near 4.3%, resulting in mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range.
Why mortgage rates could rise in May
"Rates could climb if the economy heats up," warns Glick. "If inflation jumps past 3%, yields could hit 4.5%." A stronger-than-expected jobs report would likely cause lenders to increase rates, with Treasury yields rising in response to signs of economic strength.
Market uncertainty creates another path to higher rates.
"The mortgage markets like security and certainty, neither of which they are seeing right now," explains Rathbun. "Therefore, rates increase to offset the potential risk that bonds incur."
Mayfield adds that international factors could drive mortgage rates up.
"China is a major holder of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities," she says. "If they retaliate by selling these assets, we could see a spike in mortgage rates."
Smart strategies for navigating uncertain rate environments
With May's mortgage rate direction unclear, practical strategies are more helpful than perfect predictions. Mortgage professionals recommend the following:
Plan ahead: "Begin the pre-approval process early, even before you're ready to make an offer," advises Debbie Calixto, sales manager at mortgage lender loanDepot. This gives you time to improve your credit score debt-to-income ratio
"Begin the pre-approval process early, even before you're ready to make an offer," advises Debbie Calixto, sales manager at mortgage lender loanDepot. This gives you time to improve Focus on your timeline (not the market's): Buy when it makes sense for your life situation. "It's nearly impossible to predict or perfectly time the mortgage market," Calixto explains. If rates drop later, refinancing remains an option
Buy when it makes sense for your life situation. "It's nearly impossible to predict or perfectly time the mortgage market," Calixto explains. If rates drop later, Consider alternative loan products: "Check out adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)," suggests Glick. "[They] often start lower than fixed rates." These can be advantageous if you know you'll sell or refinance within a few years.
"Check out adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs)," suggests Glick. "[They] often start lower than fixed rates." These can be advantageous if you know you'll sell or refinance within a few years. Explore rate buydowns: "If you've got cash to spare, paying points upfront to lower your rate can cut your monthly payment," Glick notes. This strategy is ideal if you plan to stay in your home long-term.
The bottom line
While rates could stay steady or drop slightly in May, they could also rise if market conditions shift. "If you're comfortable with your estimated monthly payment at current rates, it's wise to secure that rate," advises Calixto.
Now is a good time to contact several lenders for personalized guidance. Ask about rate-lock options, compare loan products and determine your comfort level with today's payments. And remember, the peace of mind from a secured rate often outweighs the gamble of waiting for drops.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
New York Post
10 minutes ago
- New York Post
The great Northeast exodus — how high taxes are driving away billions
New York and New Jersey lost $140 billion in income in just one decade. Call it moving van economics — and New York and New Jersey are the losers. A new analysis from my organization, Unleash Prosperity, of the latest census and income tax data finds these two states have lost more residents over the past decade than any other state not named California. Advertisement From 2015-2024, New York has lost 2 million residents. 3 Zohran Mamdani wants to raise taxes by 2 percent on wealthy New Yorkers. Getty Images These are giant population losses from two of America's leading industrial and financial centers throughout the 20th century. State tax havens These New York and New Jersey refugees have mostly relocated to the new powerhouse states like Florida, Texas and Tennessee. These moving vans explains why the Southeast is now, for the first time ever, the economically dominant region in the country. Advertisement Even more problematic for New York and New Jersey is that the movers are taking a lot of personal income and purchasing power with them. From 2012 to 2022, New York has lost $111 billion in income while Jersey is down by more than $31 billion. Because the income is lost forever — except for the rare cases when the exiles move back — these income losses accumulate year after year. 3 Unleash Prosperity Why are so many people leaving the Northeast? Advertisement A myriad of reasons — crime, cost of living, better job opportunities, warmer weather and, yes, to save money on taxes. New York, New Jersey and California are the three biggest losers in the interstate migration sweepstakes, and they just happen to be the states with the highest state-local income tax add-ons. The big winner states like Florida and Texas have no income tax at all. 3 Unleash Prosperity Coincidence? Doubtful. Advertisement There's a warning sign that should be flashing. The place in America with the highest income tax is New York City. Now one of the leading candidates for mayor, Zohran Mamdani, wants to raise the tax on the rich by another 2 percentage points. When will voters realize that you can't tax the New York millionaire after they move to Florida — and choose to pay no income tax at all? Stephen Moore is a co-founder of Unleash Prosperity and a former senior Trump economic adviser.
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: A week when everything happens
Choose a comfortable seat and grab your popcorn. These five days will basically be the Olympics for market watchers: And looming over all those financial and macroeconomic events is U.S. President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline for his new tariffs. As Kim Forrest, founder at Bokeh Capital, said, "What isn't happening in this week?" Here's the ideal scenario for investors. The Magnificent Seven companies reporting earnings this week and the U.S. economy secure gold at their respective events. (The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged — whether this qualifies the central bank for a medal is up for debate). Big trading partners of the U.S., such as South Korea and India, secure a deal with the White House and join the European Union and Japan at the podium, while Beijing extends its tariff suspension with Washington. If those events happen, U.S. stocks will probably have legs clear hurdle after hurdle — and the S&P 500 can continue topping record announces a trade agreement with the European Union. Most European goods, including cars, exported to the U.S. will face a 15% tariff, Trump said Sunday. The bloc also agreed to purchase $750 billion worth of U.S. energy, he added. The Fed is ready to start lowering rates, Trump said. On Friday, the U.S. president said Fed Chair Jerome Powell told him "the country is doing well," which Trump took to mean "he's going to start recommending lower rates." Futures markets disagree. Perfect week for the S&P 500. The broad-based index rose Friday to close at a high — its fifth record in a row last week. The Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones Industrial Average also advanced. The Stoxx Europe 600 lost 0.29%. Palantir joins rank of top 20 most valuable U.S. companies. After rising more than 2% on Friday to hit a market cap of $375 billion, Palantir bumped Home Depot out of the list. The software provider has more than doubled in value this year. [PRO] Keep an eye on these overbought stocks. Using CNBC Pro's stock screener tool, the team has identified 18 stocks that might be trading at levels higher than their fair value, based on their 14-day relative strength index. Under Trump, Uncle Sam is becoming an active investor The Trump administration has taken direct stakes in companies on a scale rarely seen in the U.S. outside wartime or economic crisis, pushing a Republican Party that traditionally championed free-market capitalism to embrace state intervention in industries viewed as important for national security. More interventions could be on the horizon as the Trump administration develops a policy to support U.S. companies in strategic industries against state-backed competition from China.
2 hours ago
US and China to talk trade with eye on Trump-Xi summit later this year
WASHINGTON -- When top U.S. and Chinese officials meet in Stockholm, they are almost certain to agree to at least leaving tariffs at the current levels while working toward a meeting between their presidents later this year for a more lasting trade deal between the world's two largest economies, analysts say. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are set to hold talks for the third time this year — this round in the Swedish capital, nearly four months after President Donald Trump upset global trade with his sweeping tariff proposal, including an import tax that shot up to 145% on Chinese goods. 'We have the confines of a deal with China,' Trump said Friday before leaving for Scotland. Bessent told MSNBC on Wednesday that the two countries after talks in Geneva and London have reached a 'status quo,' with the U.S. taxing imported goods from China at 30% and China responding with a 10% tariff, on top of tariffs prior to the start of Trump's second term. 'Now we can move on to discussing other matters in terms of bringing the economic relationship into balance,' Bessent said. He was referring to the U.S. running a $295.5 billion trade deficit last year. The U.S. seeks an agreement that would enable it to export more to China and shift the Chinese economy more toward domestic consumer spending. The Chinese embassy in Washington said Beijing hopes 'there will be more consensus and cooperation and less misperception' coming out of the talks. With an eye on a possible leaders' summit, Stockholm could provide some answers as to the timeline and viability of that particular goal ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. 'The meeting will be important in starting to set the stage for a fall meeting between Trump and Xi,' said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade negotiator and now vice president at the Asia Society Policy Institute. 'Beijing will likely insist on detailed preparations before they agree to a leaders' meeting.' In Stockholm, the two sides are likely to focus on commercial announcements to be made at a leaders' summit as well as agreements to address 'major irritants,' such as China's industrial overcapacity and its lack of control over chemicals used to make fentanyl, also to be announced when Xi and Trump should meet, Cutler said. Sean Stein, president of the U.S.-China Business Council, said Stockholm could be the first real opportunity for the two governments to address structural reform issues including market access in China for U.S. companies. What businesses will be seeking coming out of Stockholm would largely be 'the atmosphere' — how the two sides characterize the discussions. They will also look for clues about a possible leaders' summit because any real deal will hinge on the two presidents meeting each other, he said. In Stockholm, Beijing will likely demand the removal of the 20% fentanyl-related tariff that Trump imposed earlier this year, said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center. This round of the U.S.-China trade dispute began with fentanyl, when Trump in February imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, citing that China failed to curb the outflow of the chemicals used to make the drug. The following month, Trump added another 10% tax for the same reason. Beijing retaliated with extra duties on some U.S. goods, including coal, liquefied natural gas, and farm products such as beef, chicken, pork and soy. In Geneva, both sides climbed down from three-digit tariffs rolled out following Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in April, but the U.S. kept the 20% 'fentanyl' tariffs, in addition to the 10% baseline rate — to which China responded by keeping the same 10% rate on U.S. products. These across-the-board duties were unchanged when the two sides met in London a month later to negotiate over non-tariff measures such as export controls on critical products. The Chinese government has long protested that American politicians blame China for the fentanyl crisis in the U.S. but argued the root problem lies with the U.S. itself. Washington says Beijing is not doing enough to regulate precursor chemicals that flow out of China into the hands of drug dealers. In July, China placed two fentanyl ingredients under enhanced control, a move seen as in response to U.S. pressure and signaling goodwill. Gabriel Wildau, managing director at the consultancy Teneo, said he doesn't expect any tariff to go away in Stockholm but that tariff relief could be part of a final trade deal. 'It's possible that Trump would cancel the 20% tariff that he has explicitly linked with fentanyl, but I would expect the final tariff level on China to be at least as high as the 15-20% rate contained in the recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, Vietnam,' Wildau said. China's industrial overcapacity is as much a headache for the United States as it is for the European Union. Even Beijing has acknowledged the problem but suggested it might be difficult to address. America's trade imbalance with China has decreased from a peak of $418 billion in 2018, according to the Census Bureau. But China has found new markets for its goods and as the world's dominant manufacturer ran a global trade surplus approaching $1 trillion last year — somewhat larger than the size of the U.S. overall trade deficit in 2024. And China's emergence as a manufacturer of electric vehicles and other emerging technologies has suddenly made it more of a financial and geopolitical threat for those same industries based in the U.S., Europe, Japan and South Korea. 'Some enterprises, especially manufacturing enterprises, feel more deeply that China's manufacturing capabilities are too strong, and Chinese people are too hardworking. Factories run 24 hours a day,' Chinese Premier Li Qiang said on Thursday when hosting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in Beijing. 'Some people think this will cause some new problems in the balance of supply and demand in world production.' 'We see this problem too,' Li said. Bessent also said the Stockholm talks could address Chinese purchases of Russian and Iranian oil. However, Wildau of Teneo said China could demand some U.S. security concessions in exchange, such as a reduced U.S. military presence in East Asia and scaled-back diplomatic support for Taiwan and the Philippines. This would likely face political pushback in Washington. The Stockholm talks will be 'geared towards building a trade agreement based around Chinese purchase commitments and pledges of investment in the U.S. in exchange for partial relief from U.S. tariffs and export controls,' Wildau said. He doubts there will be a grand deal. Instead, he predicts 'a more limited agreement based around fentanyl.' 'That,' he said, 'is probably the preferred outcome for China hawks in the Trump administration, who worry that an overeager Trump might offer too much to Xi.'
