Bangladesh shifts towards China as India relations strain post-revolution
One year after the uprising, the political landscape remains volatile as parties prepare for upcoming elections. The interim government faces the challenge of balancing domestic reforms with external pressures.
'India-Bangladesh relations have probably never experienced such intense strain before,' said Praveen Donthi, an analyst at the International Crisis Group in New Delhi.
Resentment in Dhaka stems from India's sheltering of Hasina, who fled a student-led revolt in August 2024. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus accused New Delhi of fueling public anger by protecting the former leader, now facing trial for crimes against humanity.
Bangladesh's foreign ministry acknowledges the strained ties, describing the relationship as being in a 'readjustment stage.' Meanwhile, Yunus's first state visit to China in March secured $2.1 billion in investments, signaling a deepening partnership.
China has actively engaged with Bangladesh's political factions, including the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), expected to lead in the next elections. BNP leader Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir praised Beijing's 'sincerity, steadfastness, love, and affection' in fostering cooperation.
India remains wary of China's expanding influence in South Asia. Tensions escalated further as Bangladesh strengthened ties with Pakistan, India's rival. A recent militant attack in Kashmir led to cross-border clashes, prompting Dhaka and Islamabad to seek China's mediation.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun confirmed trilateral cooperation in trade, industry, and education. Bangladesh has also turned to China for healthcare alternatives after India restricted medical tourism.
Trade disputes between India and Bangladesh persist, with New Delhi imposing restrictions on jute, garments, and food imports. Despite this, bilateral trade remains significant, according to former Bangladeshi ambassador Md Humayun Kabir.
Kabir urged caution, advising Dhaka to 'tread carefully forming alliances' and prioritize multilateral relations. 'Cooperation still exists between the countries, but the warmth is gone,' he said.
Amid global trade shifts under US tariffs, Bangladesh seeks to balance relations with Washington by increasing imports of American goods. Yunus recently reaffirmed his commitment to stronger US ties during talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Analysts warn that regional tensions may escalate unless India perceives a favorable election outcome in Dhaka. 'There may be attempts to undermine it rather than to collaborate,' Donthi added. - AFP
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