Zuma's endorsement of Moroccan occupation sparks renewed debate on Western Sahara's future

Daily Maverick

3 days ago

More and more countries — and former SA president Jacob Zuma — are backing Rabat's plan for autonomy for Western Sahara.
Former South African president Jacob Zuma's visit to Morocco and endorsement of its continued occupation of Western Sahara as an autonomous region, have rekindled debate about this contentious and ongoing issue.
Zuma, who now heads the uMkhonto Wesizwe (MK) party, met Moroccan Foreign Minister Nasser Bourita in Rabat last week. Zuma formed MK just before South Africa's national elections last year, as the then-governing ANC was moving to expel him. MK raked in 15% of the vote, contributing to the ANC losing its majority for the first time since 1994.
MK cited a long list of explanations for abandoning the cause of Sahrawi independence, which Zuma espoused as president and the ANC still vigorously champions. MK's reasons included pan-Africanism, anti-colonialist solidarity, traditional leadership, territorial integrity and sovereignty. The anti-colonial argument was ironic given that the ANC views Morocco's claim over Western Sahara as colonialism and supports UN efforts to hold a referendum on the issue.
Despite the rhetoric, most of Zuma and Morocco's critics — including MK's former secretary-general Floyd Shivambu and ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula — suspect Zuma and MK sold out for money or other material gain.
That is certainly credible given Zuma's history of corruption and State Capture while president. Those same critics believe material interests are the main reason Rabat has been making steady progress in switching the allegiance of international and African states.
'With Morocco's typical use of money, I am not surprised by Zuma's move,' a retired South African diplomat told ISS Today. 'He has fallen into Morocco's strategic campaign to get African countries to endorse its plan.
'In effect, Zuma's endorsement changes nothing but causes confusion, which I guess is part of Morocco's intention.' The retired diplomat didn't see the South African government or ANC shifting their positions 'any time soon'. And didn't think this represented new thinking.
It was noteworthy, however, that Morocco treated Zuma almost as a foreign minister. This was possibly to embarrass Pretoria, which is among Africa's most ardent supporters of independence for the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR). Or perhaps the aim was to shift South Africa's position.
But Chrispin Phiri, the spokesperson of the Department of International Relations and Cooperation, told ISS Today: 'Our foreign policy is fundamentally shaped by our constitutional values and enduring national interests, not by the transient political manoeuvrings of any single figure or party.
'It's crucial to distinguish between the particular agenda of former president Zuma and his political faction, and the broader, more permanent aspirations of the nation itself. To conflate the two would be an error of the highest order. Mr Zuma and his party, like any political entity, operate as non-state actors.'
It is difficult to assess how many states back Morocco's autonomy position. But support is growing internationally with the US, France, Spain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE — and, just this week — Portugal backing Morocco.
In Africa the tally is murkier, though experts and media reports suggest Morocco is gaining ground. They indicate it now has around 23 supporters — most in West Africa, versus about 18 countries — mainly in southern Africa, backing Western Sahara independence or at least the right to a referendum on the issue.
Significant victory
Morocco was reported to have scored a significant victory in May when Kenya, which had hitherto firmly supported the SADR's right to self-determination, expressed its support for Morocco's autonomy plan. Ghana did the same in June.
However, the Polisario Front that governs the SADR has also won a few points. This year, its major champion Algeria twice defeated Morocco for African Union (AU) positions, both as AU deputy chair and in retaining North Africa's seat on the Peace and Security Council.
Nonetheless, the former South African diplomat said he was surprised by Kenya and Ghana's recent switch. He added that 'countries would have to think deeply and decide whether they would want to undermine African unity, which is one of the foundational principles of the AU'.
Liesl Louw-Vaudran, AU expert at the International Crisis Group, says Morocco has made gradual progress in its campaign for recognition of its autonomy position, globally and in Africa.
'And I think Kenya is a very important country, continentally, at the UN and in the AU.'
She also believes Rabat has succeeded in neutralising the issue in Africa. In 2018, shortly after Morocco rejoined the AU, Louw-Vaudran and Christian Ani wrote that the AU's decision to largely leave the Western Sahara issue to the UN had been 'a big win for Morocco, which believes the AU-led efforts are biased'.
Louw-Vaudran told ISS Today this week that since then, Western Sahara was no longer discussed as a crisis within the AU, including in its Peace and Security Council.
'South Africa… and some other countries are still trying to support Western Sahara, but it's no longer such a huge emotional, explosive issue, because Morocco really is, apart from South Africa, achieving its goal to stifle any debate about the Western Sahara within the AU. It has got more and more countries siding with it, like Kenya now.'
Louw-Vaudran said that despite rumours that Morocco would launch a campaign to get the SADR expelled from the AU, it hasn't happened. With strong opposition from the likes of South Africa and Algeria, 'it would be very, very difficult'.
Sceptical
SADR Foreign Minister Mohamed Beisat is sceptical about claims that Morocco is gaining support for its autonomy plan. He told ISS Today that Kenya and Ghana's reported switches had only been announced in joint statements with Morocco — not in their own statements.
He added that it was irrelevant what any other country or leader thought.
'They want the world to vote in the referendum instead of the Sahrawis themselves,' he said, referring to the UN decision that the Sahrawis must hold a referendum to decide on independence, autonomy or integration with Morocco. Morocco now insists that the option of independence is off the table.
'I don't see the point of Mr Zuma to choose for the Sahrawis or Mr Marco Rubio or Mr Macron or Mr Netanyahu or anyone else. The choice is for the Sahrawis.'
That is true. But in Zuma's case, it appears that in an increasingly transactional, self-interested world, many countries and others are backing Morocco's plan because it has something concrete to offer — from fertilisers to tourism, fisheries and renewable energies. SADR by comparison, sadly, does not. DM