Is monsoon season really over? What's next?

Korea Herald

2 days ago

Experts say 'too soon' to confirm, fierce heat wave still expected
Despite the stifling humidity and blistering heat, the recent absence of rain has sparked speculation that South Korea's summer monsoon season may already be over. But meteorologists caution it is too early to make such a call.
As of Tuesday, the seasonal monsoon front, which is usually responsible for Korea's rainy season, remains stalled near the inter-Korean border. Though inactive for days, it has not fully receded, the Korea Meteorological Administration said. The front is fluctuating between active and inactive states and could shift south again depending on atmospheric changes around the peninsula.
'Although the rain has stopped temporarily, the monsoon front hasn't completely disappeared,' said a KMA official. 'Given the current pressure systems, it's premature to declare the end of the monsoon.'
The confusion stems from how this summer's weather has unfolded.
The rainy season began on June 12 on Jeju Island and on June 19 for the southern and central regions — earlier than the average onset date. But since then, rainfall has been sparse. Instead, high humidity and intense heat have gripped much of the country, with heat advisories issued in southern regions where the monsoon front has already passed.
This phenomenon, dubbed a 'dry monsoon,' has occurred as the North Pacific High — a large mass of hot, moist air — expanded more quickly than usual, pushing the monsoon front northward. Adding to the complexity is a tropical disturbance east of the Philippines, which is pumping heat into the region and intensifying the North Pacific High.
If this tropical system weakens or moves, the high-pressure zone may recede southward, potentially dragging the rainband back over Korea. Such unpredictability makes it difficult for meteorologists to confirm whether the monsoon is truly over.
Some experts warn that if the rainy season does end this early, Korea could face a repeat of the extreme heat wave in 2018, when monsoon season ended in early July and gave way to 22 consecutive days of record-breaking heat.
Even in the absence of sustained rainfall, the KMA warns of the possibility of sudden, heavy downpours. 'We may not see the traditional, prolonged monsoon rains for a while,' the KMA said, 'but short bursts of intense rain are still likely in many regions.'
In the meantime, the agency urges the public to remain cautious amid ongoing heat wave conditions and to check weather forecasts frequently. 'Keep a small umbrella handy and take extra care of your health during these sweltering days,' the official added.