The Very American Roots of Trumpism
A number of people I respect and often agree with have been making different versions of the same point: Immigration is one of Trump's best issues — and one of the worst issues for Democrats. The economy is where Trump is now weak. So if you really care about the dangers Donald Trump poses, you need to beat him. And that means focusing the country's attention on his worst issues, the places where he is most beatable.
Nate Silver has made a version of this argument, and so did California governor Gavin Newsom:
Archived clip of Gavin Newsom: 'This is the distraction of the day — the art of distraction. Don't get distracted by distractions, we say. And here we zig and zag. This is the debate they want. This is their 80-20 issue, as they've described it.'
I want to give this argument its due. It's not without merit. Optimal political strategy is usually to keep the focus on your opponent's worst issues. For Donald Trump right now, it's his decision to light the global economy on fire.
From that perspective, focusing on the wrongful deportation and detainment of Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia is a distraction. Trump's meeting with President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador is a distraction. And getting distracted is bad politics. Focus on the tariffs. Focus on the stock market chaos. Focus.
But I think there are two things wrong with this. One is that the polling here isn't clear. Yes, Democrats have become afraid of the issue of immigration. They see that as a winner for Donald Trump. But the Abrego Garcia case is actually about rule of law and due process. That's how it is, and should be, framed. And on those issues, Democrats are in a much better position: People do not want the Trump administration to be able to randomly disappear people living in this country without due process.
But I think this argument reflects a generalized collapse of roles and time across the political system. If this were October 2026 and you were running a congressional campaign, then what you focus on is a hard question. And you should pay pretty damn close attention to the pulse. If you're choosing how to write and spend money on ads, same thing. I wish you luck figuring it out.
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