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USA Today
28 minutes ago
- USA Today
Uncertain economic times? That means it's gold's time to shine
What's it worth: From Costco gold bars to pots of gold That's enough for more than 1 billion Olympic gold medals, which are actually primarily made of silver, and about 750,000 pots of gold waiting at the end of every rainbow. Or you'd have to spend $694 billion at Costco on its 1-ounce gold bars, although the $3,410 bar is out of stock. Value of reserves rises and falls with price of gold The price of gold fluctuates, but as of July 2025, the market value of all the gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve vault could be estimated somewhere between $470 billion and $680 billion, depending on the market price of gold, which hit a record high this year. Who owns all the gold in the Fed's stockpile? But none of that gold belongs to the Fed, and most of it isn't American. In 2021, the U.S. Treasury Department reported it only stores about 13.4 million fine troy ounces – about 416 metric tons – there. The rest belongs to foreign governments, other central banks, and official international organizations, who trust the Fed to keep it locked away 80 feet below street level. Golden opportunity for a heist movie? Where is the world's gold stored? The United States stores gold in other places, too. The largest American-owned gold stockpile is at Fort Knox in Kentucky, which houses about 147.3 million fine troy ounces of gold – about 4,583 metric tons. Other countries, including Germany, Italy, and France, also have large gold reserves. More: Trump wants lower interest rates. Will the Fed make cuts? Live updates Why people still like gold Beyond its shine, some investors, central banks, and governments view gold as an attractive asset that inspires confidence, even in uncertain times. 'It's historical money. It goes back several millennia as original money,' said Aakash Doshi, the global head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management. 'It goes back to biblical times. It was one of the gifts from the three wise men.' While today gold isn't used as a large-scale payment method, it's a highly liquid asset with no particular credit risk and is not directly controlled by any central bank, according to Joe Cavatoni, the senior market strategist for the Americas for the World Gold Council. Some investors still view it as 'real' money – something that can't be printed – and a hedge against market and economic volatility. 'Gold performs in good times as well as in the bad times,' Cavatoni said. Why gold demand surged While the dollar or the euro isn't going away anytime soon, Doshi said the demand for real hard assets that complement fiat currency rose over the last few decades as global debt and governments' share of that debt has increased. In 2024, gold overtook the euro as the second-largest global reserve asset after the U.S. dollar, according to a June European Central Bank report. Doshi listed the 2008 financial crisis, the U.S.-China trade war, shifting trade alliances like the rearrangement of the North American Free Trade Agreement, and expanded sanctions as forces driving some central banks' increased interest in gold, as they seek stability amid economic shocks and geopolitical tension. Cavatoni said that rating agencies' recent downgrades to the U.S. government's creditworthiness and the risks that come with holding treasuries are also likely on people's minds, adding that a lot of the increased demand is coming from emerging market central banks. Gold price jumped since the start of 2024 He said gold is valued higher when market risk is unclear and uncertainty is high, adding, 'that's kind of the world we're living in now.' 'When you think about their absolute level of holdings, they are still very low relative to the percentage of total reserves. And I think that there's still an opportunity for them to continue to grow,' Cavatoni said. 'But I think we're seeing in our second quarter data and other sound bites that they're definitely paying close attention to what the performance is going to look like.'


USA Today
28 minutes ago
- USA Today
After a weak jobs report, here's where the economy stands
We learned a lot about the U.S. economy during the past week, but what we learned may leave us asking more questions. Consider a few of the most telling numbers: The encouraging news ◾ GDP grew 3%: The economy rebounded in Q2 after a -0.5% drop in Q1. The first quarter decline was driven by companies rushing to import goods ahead of new tariffs from President Donald Trump. Imports are subtracted from U.S. growth. ◾ Consumers are happier: Both consumer confidence and sentiment continued to climb in July, recovering from their April lows. Consumer spending is the largest part of the U.S. economy. The less encouraging news ◾ Inflation is rising: The Fed's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index — rose 0.3% from May. Economists say the increase may be one of the early signs that tariffs are starting to push up prices. ◾ Job revisions surprise: July's job gains came in at 73,000 — well below the expected 102,000. More concerning, however, were downward revisions to April and May's numbers, suggesting the labor market may be weaker than previously thought. Jobs fallout: Trump fires head of labor statistics bureau after weak jobs report One thing that didn't change this week: The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Chair Jerome Powell and the policymaking committee kept the short-term rate range steady at 4.25% to 4.5%. But, that range may not hold for long. "The weak July jobs report increases pressure on the Fed to cut rates later this year," said Bill Adams, Comerica Bank chief economist. "The decision isn't a slam dunk, since labor supply also fell in July" because the number of foreign-born workers declined. Interest rate traders appear more confident that a rate cut is coming. Their latest bets suggest a 90% chance the Fed will lower rates in September — a sharp jump from the 45% percent chance shortly after the Fed's meeting on Wednesday. Will the Fed cut interest rates? Unable to view our graphics? Click here to view them. How is the U.S. economy doing? What is the U.S. unemployment rate? U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in July. The monthly number represents the percentage of people who are unemployed and looking for work. What the data shows: The unemployment rate has been relatively steady for the past year, hovering around the 10-year monthly median rate of 4.1%. Economists such as Nancy Vanden Houten at Oxford Economics have speculated that corporate decision makers have been stymied by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs: "The June (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) painted a familiar picture of the labor market: Hiring remains quite low, but so do layoffs." Hiring had held stead throughout the year – although it was well below the 10-year median rate of 226,000 jobs per month. Analysts expected Friday's jobs report would show the economy added about 100,002 jobs in July. Stock prices and bond yields fell following the disappointing report. How big is the U.S. economy? The U.S. economy produced about $30 trillion of goods on an inflation-adjusted annualized basis in the first quarter, but real GDP, the value of goods adjusted for inflation, fell 0.5% in the quarter because imported goods – which subtract from GDP – jumped more than 50%. What the data shows: The Bureau of Labor Statisics report Wednesday morning showed the economy grew 3% in the second quarter – significantly higher than the 2.3% increase analysts expected. Much of the "growth" came from reduced spending on imports. How high is inflation? Inflation, a sustained increase in prices throughout the economy, touched its 10-year median of 2.3% in April – the first time since pandemic spending set off 40-year high inflation. The Fed policymakers say they prefer inflation at 2%, or "low and stable," so we can "make sound decisions regarding saving, borrowing, and investment." What the data shows: Inflation has fallen significantly but remains above the 2% that the Fed targets. The annual inflation rate as measured by the consumer price index rose to 2.7% in June from 2.4% in May. The July CPI report will be released Aug. 12. Are consumers still making purchases? U.S. consumers account for $7 of every $10 spent in the U.S. economy. Retail sales' median monthly increase has been about 0.4% for the past 10 years. That doesn't sound like much until you consider a 0.6% increase in June amounted to an extra $4.6 billion of spending. What the data shows: As the primary engine of the U.S. economy, we bought $720 billion worth of stuff on a seasonally adjusted basis in June. That was a big swing from the -0.9% decline in May. We'll find out Aug. 15 if we continued to spend in July. Gas prices are holding steady Our gasoline purchases aren't a large part of most of our budgets, but it's hard to miss the big numbers outside every station and not have some emotional reaction to their swings. That can have a psychological impact on our spending. One report showed a recent improvement in consumer sentiment closely correlated with lower gas prices. What the data shows: We're in the midst of the summer driving season where gasoline prices typically peak, but a gallon of regular gas has held steady throughout the summer and several cents below last year's prices. So how confident are U.S. consumers now? The University of Michigan measures U.S. consumer sentiment on a monthly basis. The index been as high as 101 ahead of the pandemic in February 2020 and as low as 50 when inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022. What the data shows: Consumer sentiment has been rising haltingly since bottomed out in May. Current mortgage rates still elevated While the Fed's interest-rate decisions don't directly affect mortgage rates, they do ripple through the economy and have made the math more difficult for homebuyers. What the data shows: Since November, mortgage rates have moved in a relatively narrow range – between 6.6% and 7% – and well above the 10-year median, according to Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. Rates are down significantly from the November 2023 peak of 7.8%. Higher mortgage rates weigh on home sales Existing home sales are the lion's share of homes sold each month. The NAR reports each month's sales at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Annual home sales peaked in 2005 at 7.08 million units. In September 2024, that number fell to 3.9 million units – lower than sales during any year following the financial crisis. What the data shows: Not surprisingly as mortgage rates have risen, existing home sales have tumbled. At the same time, average home prices are also rising because fewer homes are on the market. Speculation has been that homeowners are unwilling to sell and give up their low-rate mortgages. So how are investors looking at this information? The nation's stock markets are not the economy, but their movements reflect the combined bets investors are making on the economy. Investors have a keen eye on data points like in the charts above. Significant swings in our spending, or even our thinking, might potentially impact corporate profits in coming quarters. What the data shows: After a dip in early April because of tariff-related uncertainty, the S&P 500 has steadily climbed, reaching several new highs since June. The upward trend could suggest that investors are increasingly confident the final tariff agreements won't weigh on the economy as heavily as once feared, but following the employment report Friday all three major U.S. index fell more than 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 2.2%. Contributing: Bailey Schulz


New York Times
29 minutes ago
- New York Times
Donor List Suggests Scale of Trump's Pay-for-Access Operation
When the cryptocurrency entrepreneur Eric Schiermeyer heard that President Trump was holding small group dinners with major donors, he saw opportunity. Mr. Schiermeyer reached out to a lobbyist with connections in Mr. Trump's orbit, who arranged for him to attend a dinner with the president at his private Mar-a-Lago club on March 1 in exchange for donations to a pro-Trump PAC called MAGA Inc. totaling $1 million. The personal and corporate donations were among dozens of seven- and eight-figure contributions to MAGA Inc. from crypto and other interests revealed in a campaign finance filing on Thursday night that hinted at the access Mr. Trump accords those willing to pay. At the dinner, Mr. Schiermeyer, who had never given a federal political donation before, presented an idea for a cryptocurrency called 'U.S.A. Token' that would be distributed to every citizen, according to interviews and a flier he distributed to attendees that sets out details of the proposal. He hoped it could be supported through a federal contract with his company. 'I don't usually put time and attention on politics,' Mr. Schiermeyer said in a text exchange with The New York Times. But, he added, 'I was able to say my piece, and the idea is clearly making the rounds, so mission accomplished from my view.' While the Trump administration has not given Mr. Schiermeyer any indication it is pursuing the U.S.A. Token idea, the episode underscores the face time that Mr. Trump has been willing to grant to deep-pocketed interests seeking business, preferential treatment or protection from him and his administration. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.