Are northern states flipping the ‘injustice' narrative? Kushwaha's call for delimitation says so

Indian Express

13-06-2025

Written by Mrityunjay Sharma
Upendra Kushwaha, leader of the Rashtriya Lok Samta Party (RLSP), a constituent of the NDA, recently launched his campaign for the upcoming Bihar elections from Muzaffarpur. While this marks the usual pre-election show of strength, aimed at bargaining for a larger share of seats before the NDA finalises its seat-sharing arrangement, what drew attention was the name of his rally: Samvaidhanik Adhikar–Parisiman Sudhar (Constitutional Rights–Delimitation Reform).
Addressing the rally, Kushwaha advocated for delimitation. He said that had the process been carried out on time, the number of Lok Sabha seats in Bihar would have increased to around 60, thereby boosting representation for Scheduled Castes and women. He also warned of launching an agitation against what he termed a 'gross injustice' to the state.
This appears to be the first significant mention of delimitation by a political leader at a public rally in the Hindi heartland. While the issue has been debated in Parliament and among policy experts, it hasn't entered the mainstream political narrative ahead of the decisive year, 2026, when the freeze on delimitation elapses.
Delimitation, which is supposed to follow each decennial census, has been postponed twice — first in 1976 and again in 2001, each time for 25 years. Many speculate that the Centre may continue this delay, fearing severe backlash from the southern states, which would possibly lose a few Lok Sabha seats. However, others believe that, given the Modi government's track record of addressing long-pending and contentious issues head-on, delimitation may indeed be on the cards. The last amendment in 2001 mentioned that delimitation may be carried out following a Census conducted after 2026. The recent announcement of the decennial census to be conducted in 2026–27 fulfils this condition and further strengthens the belief that delimitation is imminent.
Delimitation, as envisaged in Article 82 of the Constitution, refers to the process of restructuring Parliamentary constituencies to ensure that each represents an approximately equal population. The data used for this purpose must be from the most recent census. The suspension of this process since 1976, intended to promote family planning and reward states that effectively curbed population growth, has led to massive discrepancies. For example, a Lok Sabha MP from Uttar Pradesh today represents an average of 30 lakh people, whereas a Tamil Nadu MP represents only 18 lakh people. This violates the principle of 'one person, one vote,' a cornerstone of democratic representation. The imbalance has implications not just for representation but also for the equitable delivery of basic services.
Milan Vaishnav and Jamie Hinston, in one of their research papers, project state-wise populations to 2026 and evaluate the potential impact of reallocation using a method proposed by McMillan. This approach suggests expanding the total size of the Lok Sabha so that no state loses seats under the new distribution. Based on 2026 projections, this would increase the total number of Lok Sabha seats to 848. The biggest beneficiaries would be Uttar Pradesh (which would go from 80 to 143 seats) and Bihar (which would nearly double from 40 to 79). It's no surprise, then, that the strongest demands for delimitation are emerging from these two states.
The biggest loser would be Kerala, which wouldn't gain any additional seats beyond its current tally of 20. Other South Indian states would gain marginally, nothing compared to the gains by northern states. According to the leaders of the Southern states, they should not be penalised for successfully curbing population growth, especially when compared to high-growth states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. They aren't wrong, either. While the southern states have reduced their TFR (total fertility rate) to 1.5, much below the population replacement rate of 2.1, Bihar is still growing with a TFR of around 3.
In recent years, some parties in the South have tapped into anti-North Indian sentiments to consolidate support, raising issues such as skewed financial devolution, northern migrants taking away local jobs, and threats to local culture. Recent clashes over language in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are a testament to these growing tensions.
It will be interesting to see if parties in North India are now going to flip the narrative, accusing the South of unfairly benefiting from a frozen system that denies Northern states their rightful share of representation. While such a move could deepen the North–South divide, it could also become a political tool to rally regional identities and demand equitable representation.
In the upcoming Bihar elections, while Chirag Paswan pushes the slogan of 'Bihar First, Bihari First', the Congress focuses on caste census and representation, and Tejashwi Yadav attacks the failures of the Nitish government, it remains to be seen whether Upendra Kushwaha's call for delimitation will resonate with voters, or whether it will be drowned out by more conventional electoral issues.
The writer is a BJP Leader and author of Broken Promises: Caste, Crime and Politics in Bihar