Trump's Iran gamble brings respite, not resolution
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Israel-Iran war poised to reignite with little warning
Nile Bowie analyzes the aftermath of the Israel-Iran war, arguing that the conflict has likely catalyzed Tehran to shift toward nuclear deterrence amid contradictory US intelligence assessments of the strikes' impact on Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
Ukraine's bargaining power fades as NATO recalibrates
James Davis assesses the deepening fatigue among Western nations toward Ukraine's war effort. The June NATO summit marked the first time since 2022 that Ukraine was not central to the communiqué, and Russia was not explicitly condemned.
Germany sets record deficit in €850 billion debt push
Diego Faßnacht unpacks Germany's record-breaking 2025–2029 federal budget, which signals a historic shift from fiscal orthodoxy toward aggressive deficit spending under new Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil. The long-term viability of Germany's fiscal pivot remains uncertain.
Moore's Law with Chinese characteristics
Scott Foster analyzes how China's forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan is set to elevate the semiconductor industry as a national priority. Drawing on insights from Ye Tianchun, a leading industry figure, Foster outlines Beijing's comprehensive planning and strategic resilience.
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South China Morning Post
5 hours ago
- South China Morning Post
Hundreds of thousands mourn top Iranian commanders and scientists killed in Israeli strikes
Hundreds of thousands of mourners lined the streets of downtown Tehran on Saturday for the funeral of the head of the Revolutionary Guard and other top commanders and nuclear scientists killed during a 12-day war with Israel. The caskets of Guard's chief General Hossein Salami, the head of the Guard's ballistic missile programme, General Amir Ali Hajizadeh and others were driven on trucks along the capital's Azadi Street as people in the crowds chanted 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel'. Salami and Hajizadeh were both killed on the first day of the war, June 13, as Israel launched a war it said was meant to destroy Iran's nuclear programme, specifically targeting military commanders, scientists and nuclear facilities. State media reported more than 1 million people turned out for the funeral procession, which was impossible to independently confirm, but the dense crowd packed the main Tehran thoroughfare along the entire 4.5km (nearly three-mile) route. There was no immediate sign of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the state broadcast of the funeral. Khamenei, who has not made a public appearance since before the outbreak of the war, has in past funerals held prayers for fallen commanders over their caskets before the open ceremonies, later aired on state television.
South China Morning Post
7 hours ago
- South China Morning Post
At least 1.2 million Afghans deported this year despite risks: UN
At least 1.2 million Afghans have been forced to return from Iran and Pakistan this year, the UN refugee agency said on Saturday, warning that repatriations on a massive scale have the potential to destabilise the fragile situation in Afghanistan. Iran and Pakistan in 2023 launched separate campaigns to expel foreigners they said were living in the country illegally. They set deadlines and threatened them with deportation if they did not leave. The two governments deny targeting Afghans, who have fled their homeland to escape war, poverty or Taliban rule. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees said that of the 1.2 million returning Afghans, more than half had come from Iran following a March 20 government deadline for them to leave voluntarily or face expulsion. Iran has deported more than 366,000 Afghans this year, including refugees and people in refugee-like situations, according to the agency. Iran's 12-day war with Israel has also driven departures. The highest number of returns was on June 26, when 36,100 Afghans crossed the border in one day. 'Afghan families are being uprooted once again, arriving with scant belongings, exhausted, hungry, scared about what awaits them in a country many of them have never even set foot in,' said Arafat Jamal, the UNHCR representative in the Afghan capital, Kabul.
South China Morning Post
9 hours ago
- South China Morning Post
China to stay cautious as Iran seeks help amid clashes with US, Israel: Middle East expert
Iran may look to China for weapons support amid conflicts with the US and Israel , but Beijing will remain cautious, considering strained economic ties with Tehran and its broader interest in balancing ties with Israel and other Western-aligned states in the region, according to a veteran Chinese expert on the Middle East. Advertisement In an exclusive interview with the South China Morning Post, Pan Guang, a Chinese scholar of Jewish and Middle East studies, said the conflict between Iran and Israel was unlikely to spiral into a broader war, but tit-for-tat retaliation could continue as Tehran pushes ahead with its nuclear programme, which is believed to persist despite US strikes. Tensions escalated after Israel launched strikes on Iran on June 13. The US joined days later, targeting three of Iran's nuclear facilities – marking the most significant Western military action against the Islamic Republic since 1979. Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base in Qatar and striking Israel's strategic port city of Haifa, home to Chinese projects under the Belt and Road Initiative US President Donald Trump brokered a ceasefire between Iran and Israel this week, which has largely held despite initial violations. However, prospects for a durable truce appear dim, as Iran's core nuclear capabilities are believed to remain intact and Israel remains determined to neutralise what it sees as an existential threat. Beijing, a close partner of Tehran, is being closely watched as the conflict unfolds. On Thursday, Iranian Defence Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh joined nine of his counterparts at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation's defence ministers' meeting in Qingdao, China, where he called for a bigger Chinese role in easing the conflict. Pan said Iran might seek Chinese weapons in light of its escalating tensions with Israel, drawing lessons from Pakistan's recent conflict with India.
