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Indian equities out of re-rating potential; Emkay decodes what's next
Most indices (Nifty50/BSE200/Small-and-midcap) are trading in a range between their long-term average (LTA) and above plus one standard deviation (+1sd), with the BSE200 and Midcap indices trading at the highest premium.
Drilling deeper, Emkay notes that 34 per cent of its tracked universe—comprising over 500 companies covered by at least five analysts—are currently trading at +1sd above their long-term mean. This is up from 11 per cent in March 2025, though still below the September 2024 peak of 44 per cent.
In this context, analysts anticipate a period of consolidation over the next one to two quarters. However, any sharp correction may offer a favourable entry opportunity.
Market outlook
Stable earnings outlook, but Q1 to remain muted
While the overall earnings trajectory appears stable, Q1FY26 is expected to be soft, with most of the weakness already priced in. The Nifty FY26 earnings per share (EPS) saw only a marginal downgrade of 84 basis points (bps) over the past month. Key consensus downgrades were seen in Tata Motors, Bajaj Finance and Shriram Finance, while upgrades were scarce. In the BSE200 category, the EPS was cut by 68 bps between May and June with Adani Green/Tata Motors/REC seeing the sharpest consensus cuts.
Overall, Emkay Financial believes, the share of companies seeing upward revisions of over 10 per cent in FY26 EPS has dropped to 23 per cent—down from 27 per cent in the previous quarter. Analysts expect growth sentiment to recover in H2FY26, with potential for earnings upgrades later in the year.
Global flows to support, but promoter selling warrants caution
In June 2025, the fund flows have been robust with strong inflows from foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and mutual funds (MFs), as markets rallied from early April. Systematic investment plan (SIP) flows have been heavy into large, Small-and-midcap, and flexicap funds, shifting from thematics/focused funds.
While domestic flows have a strong tailwind from falling rates as yields on fixed-income investments fall further, global flows are also expected to be strong with continued pressure and a soft landing in the US and Western economies.
While primary market activity deepens breadth and keeps valuations from overheating, elevated promoter offloading will be closely tracked in the coming weeks.
Primary market activity has picked up– initial public offers (IPOs) have raised ₹19,900 crore (0.06 per cent of equity market cap) with a strong pipeline. Promoter-selling has also accelerated and surged 336 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M).
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