Polls will determine if border vote happens says minister

The Herald Scotland

21-04-2025

The comments from Ms Anderson, who is Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, appeared in an AgendaNI article and appeared in the Belfast Telegraph this morning.
It came on a weekend which saw Sinn Fein renew calls for a border poll by 2030.
Under the Good Friday Agreement, the power to call a border poll rests with the Secretary of State.
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The legislation states the NI Secretary should call a referendum on Irish unity "if it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the UK and form part of a united Ireland".
However, there are no set criteria for when a referendum would be triggered.
Previous secretaries of state have refused to outline what exactly would be required.
Asked by Agenda NI, Ms Anderson said: "It would be based on opinion polls."
Last night, the NIO appeared to distance itself from her comments, saying "responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State".
A spokesperson said: "The responsibility for a referendum sits solely with the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
"This is clearly set out in the Northern Ireland Act 1998, which gives effect to the Good Friday Agreement and the principle of consent.
"This has been — and remains — the only condition. The Secretary of State has been clear that there is no evidence that this condition has been met."
Asked if she would campaign in favour of maintaining the Union in any border poll, Ms Anderson says: "That is up to the people of Northern Ireland. We want to support all communities. If it ever came to a vote, we would support the democratic process."
Asked if she is a unionist, the MP for Putney says she is "not sure" if she is and that she is "not one community or another. I am not one side or another."
However, when asked if she favours Northern Ireland remaining part of the UK, Ms Anderson replied: "Yes, I think the Union is a strong way of supporting everyone across the United Kingdom."
Earlier this year, a LucidTalk poll published by the Belfast Telegraph showed that 48% of Northern Ireland voters want to stay in the UK, whilst 41% are in favour of constitutional change.
In last year's Westminster election, the total unionist vote was just over 43% while the nationalist vote was slightly over 40%.
The margins on the constitutional status have narrowed slightly, according to opinion polls.
In a survey last year there was a 10-point gap between the two sides; with 49% supporting staying in the UK, while 39% wanted Irish unity.
In a recent survey by the Belfast Telegraph, 10% of people said they were unsure how they'd vote, while 1% would abstain or spoil their ballot.
While almost nine in 10 nationalists (86%) want a border poll within the next decade, three-quarters (74%) of unionists say one should never be called.
Support for Irish unity is strongest with the younger generation. Among voters under 35, 50% want a united Ireland, with 44% choosing the Union.
It is not the first time an NIO Minister has commented on a border poll.
In 2023, then NI Minister Steve Baker reportedly said a border poll should need the support of a "super-majority", rather than a simple 50% plus one majority.
Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris later said there had been no shift in UK government policy on the terms of any future referendum Ms Anderson, who has been an MP since 2019, was appointed to her NIO role by Prime Minister Keir Starmer after last July's election.
The First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland told The Herald o Sunday last year that lessons can be learnt from the Scottish independence referendum regarding any future Irish border poll.
Michelle O'Neill and Emma Little-Pengelly were speaking to the paper following a summit of the British Irish Council (BIC) in Edinburgh on Friday, hosted by First Minister John Swinney on December 6.
Ms O'Neill became the first nationalist First Minister at Stormont after her republican party Sinn Fein won the election to the Northern Ireland Assembly in May 2022.
The victory renewed focus on the prospect of an Irish border poll with the Good Friday Agreement, signed in 1998, allowing provision for such a referendum if certain conditions are met.
The First Minster said then she believed there could be a vote in Northern Ireland on Irish reunification by 2030 and that there were lessons to be learnt from what happened in Scotland.
The pro independence side lost by 45% to 55% to the pro-Union side in the referendum in September 2014.
"I believe we are in a decade of opportunity and I do believe it is time for the question to be put to the people," Ms O'Neill told the Herald on Sunday.
"That is the outcome of the Good Friday Agreement itself. We the people will decide when there is constitutional change. For me the lessons we learned from the Scottish situation and the Scottish independence referendum [is] you need to have the facts on the table, you need an inclusive conversation."
Ms Little-Pengelly, of the DUP, agreed that there were lessons that could be learnt from Scotland relating to the constitutional debate in Northern Ireland.
However, she said she and her party do not want a border poll and do not believe conditions set out in the Good Friday Agreement have been met for one to take place.
She pointed to the result of the general election in Ireland last year, won by Fianna Fail, whose leader Micheal Martin said during the campaign a border poll was unlikely within five years.