BLSA CEO warns: US tariffs and GNU challenges threaten South Africa's economy
Image: Armand Hough/Independent Media
Business Leadership South Africa CEO Busisiwe Mavuso has warned that South African exports to the United States could soon face tariffs of up to 30% if a key trade deal is not renewed.
IOL previously reported that last month, US President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, along with additional "reciprocal tariffs" for several countries, including a 30% tariff on South African goods. However, he later paused these higher tariffs for 90 days for most countries, except China.
Earlier this year, Minister of Agriculture John Steenhuisen also conceded that the future of South Africa's trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain, saying the government was 'hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.'
Despite President Cyril Ramaphosa's diplomatic efforts, including a high-level meeting with US President Donald Trump, aimed at easing tensions and strengthening trade ties between the two nations.
"When we approached the subject of AGOA, it was made very clear that it is a creature of Congress and that we would have to engage with Congress, my personal view is that AGOA may still be on the boil but it is going to be different from the AGOA we know from the past," Steenhuisen said.
In her weekly newsletter on Monday, Mavuso warned that the expiry of the current trade arrangement could seriously disrupt the country's export momentum.
"Earlier this year, confidence was building—you could feel it in boardrooms and investment committee meetings. Then the global trade environment shifted dramatically," Mavuso said.
"The looming expiration of the current 10% tariff arrangement on July 9 could see South African exports to the US facing 30% tariffs, fundamentally altering trade flows and forcing rapid strategic adjustments".
Mavuso also pointed to challenges within the Government of National Unity (GNU), noting delays in Eskom's restructuring and the lack of focused attention on key logistics corridors.
"Eskom's restructuring has hit unexpected delays in key areas, and our logistics corridors still aren't receiving the focused attention they desperately need"
While government and business have committed to short-term reform 'sprints,' Mavuso said success will depend on effective execution.
'The proof will be in execution.'
On political dynamics, she described the GNU's political uncertainty as its 'Achilles heel,' warning that tensions among coalition partners risk undermining investor confidence and delaying reforms.
'When political survival takes precedence over governance, everyone loses.' she added.
mthobisi.nozulela@iol.co.za
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