Experts Break Down Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Roadblocks

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Demonstrators gather in Tel Aviv calling on the government to end the war in Gaza and for the release Israeli hostages, July 5. Credit - Mostafa Alkharouf - Getty Images
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the White House Monday comes amid renewed efforts for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war. The first round of indirect talks ended without any progress on Sunday night, but it is understood that Qatari and Egyptian mediators will regroup to try again.
Netanyahu's in-person meeting with President Donald Trump will be the third this year. Trump said last week that Israel had agreed to conditions for a 60-day cease-fire. He urged Hamas to take the deal for 'the good of the Middle East', warning that 'things will only get worse' if they do not.
Before boarding his flight to Washington, D.C., Netanyahu, who recently achieved a cease-fire between Israel and Iran, said he had a 'clear commitment' in mind for his U.S. visit.
'To bring back all the hostages, to eliminate Hamas' rule and capabilities, and to ensure that Gaza no longer poses a threat to the State of Israel,' he said, repeating the stance he's shared many times before.
TIME asked experts about the difficulty in procuring a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. Here are the main roadblocks they identified:
The war was triggered after the Hamas terror attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing more than 1,200 people and taking around 250 hostages. Since then, Israel has killed more than 57,000 Palestinians, according to the Gaza Health Ministry.
Israel has been clear in its objective to bring the hostages home and prevent further attacks by 'eliminating Hamas.' There have been some successful hostage-prisoner swaps, but as of June 22, it is understood that 50 hostages are still in captivity. Israel believes 27 of those are dead.
Hamas, meanwhile, has vowed not to disband and is demanding a full withdrawal of the Israel Defense Force (IDF) from Gaza.
Peter Krause, associate professor of political science at Boston College, says that the opposing desired outcomes from Israel and Hamas make a successful, lasting cease-fire incredibly difficult to achieve.
'From Hamas' perspective, their only remaining bargaining chips are these hostages, and so if they give some or all of them back, they'll want to have assurances that the conflict is going to end,' Krause said. 'From the Netanyahu Administration's perspective, they're very happy to have a pause [in combat] if it gets some of the hostages back, so long as they can then return to trying to degrade or destroy Hamas.'
'An end to the conflict at the moment is not very likely because of those antithetical objectives and the lack of trust between the two sides,' Krause argues.
Netanyahu continues to battle with approval ratings amid an ongoing corruption trial back home. He is facing charges of bribery centered around donations worth up to $300,000 from 2006 to 2017. Netanyahu is also accused of fraud and breach of trust. He has denied the allegations.
In a recent poll by the Israeli newspaper Ma'ariv, 49% of Israelis surveyed said they believe Netanyahu is continuing the war in Gaza for his own political considerations.
Former Israeli Prime Minister and current Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid has been consistently critical of Netanyahu since his re-election in 2022.
'From 2015 onward, there has been a decline. I see a man desperately clinging to the position out of fear of his trial and mostly out of fear that the only thing people will remember him for is October 7,' Lapid said.
Netanyahu has even faced criticism from within his own cabinet, with far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich scorning his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
'[Netanyahu] has failed to implement the decisions of the political echelon and enforce them on the senior IDF command regarding this critical issue for victory—destroying Hamas and returning the hostages,' Smotrich said on Sunday.
'Netanyahu personally has significant incentive to prolong this conflict to avoid prosecution,' Krause argues, adding that leading up to Oct. 7th, 'the Israeli leader was seen by many as being partially responsible for propping up Hamas.'
TIME spoke to Israel's Prime Minister in August 2024, when he said that Israel is 'not merely fighting Hamas,' but is instead 'facing a full-fledged Iranian axis, and we understand that we have to organize ourselves for broader defense.'Krause says that far-right members of Netanyahu's government coalition have also threatened to leave, should he sign certain cease-fire deals. Itamar Ben Gvir, threatened to resign from his position as Security Minister in January as Netanyahu considered cease-fire plans.
Dana Stroul, director of research at the Washington Institute, says that Netanyahu has 'boxed himself in' by setting the IDF objective in Gaza as absolute victory, without 'identifying achievable political outcomes on the other side.'
Netanyahu's cabinet has failed to articulate its exact intentions post-combat, Stroul says, arguing that matters are complicated further by the fact Netanyahu's government has 'the most extremist right-wing' coalition in Israel's recent history
'The political structure inside Israel, and that coalition, has limited his maneuverability to start the process for what happens on the other side of military operations,' Stroul says, highlighting a lack of a clear vision for a prosperous Gaza.
Notably, it was Netanyahu and his administration that pulled away from the second phase of the plan last year, which aimed to establish a permanent cease-fire, secure further Israeli hostage and Palestinian prisoner exchanges, and enact the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza.
'We are committed to continuing the war after a pause, in order to complete the goal of eliminating Hamas. I'm not willing to give up on that,' Netanyahu said in a television interview.
Experts agree that Hamas has played a significant role in restricting the progress of negotiations.
Stroul says that the framework of the current cease-fire proposal is very similar to that seen in January during the last cease-fire.
But when it comes to mapping out long-term security for Israel, Hamas appears uncooperative.
'Paving the way for a non-Hamas future in Gaza, meaning the leaders of Hamas [would] have to leave Gaza and turn in their weapons, is not something that Hamas appears willing to do right now,' Stroul says.
Another key issue that keeps Hamas and Israel divided is how the IDF will operate in the future within Gaza, as well as its relationship with aid distribution.
There has been concern from international organizations about hundreds of Palestinians killed while collecting aid from distribution sites set up by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). The United Nations has reported that over 600 Palestinians have been killed at these centers since GHF began operations at the end of May.
Read More: What to Know About the Deaths at Controversial Gaza Aid Distribution Sites
'I think they [the IDF] would want the same sort of deployment that they had on Jan. 19, when they had the last cease-fire, where Israel [only] gets out of [certain] key areas,' says David Makovsky, a Ziegler distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute.
He adds that Israel is focused on the 'Morag Corridor,' a line that runs through southern Gaza.
'Israel's strategy is basically to create a Hamas-free zone in southern Gaza,' he says, noting that this is important to continue Israel's strategy for aid distribution under the U.S. organization, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which is backed by Israel.
Cutting off Hamas' access to southern Gaza, where three of GHF's four distribution centers are located, would disable the group from accessing and hijacking aid meant for civilians, Makovsky says. Meanwhile, Hamas is now calling for a revert in aid distribution, requesting it be handed over to a U.N.-led initiative.
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