US tariffs could cost Italy up to 0.8% of GDP
MILAN : US tariffs of 30% on EU goods could shave up to 0.8% off Italy's gross domestic product in 2027, the country's main business lobby said on Monday, as transatlantic trade negotiations continued.
President Donald Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU imports starting Aug 1, but his trade chief Howard Lutnick said on Sunday there was 'plenty of room' for an agreement with European counterparts.
If 30% tariffs are confirmed, and assuming no countermeasures from the EU, Italy's GDP would take a 0.25% hit this year, rising to 0.59% in 2026 and 0.82% in 2027, Confindustria's research unit said.
Italy's main exports to the US include machinery, pharmaceuticals, cars and food products such as olive oil, pasta, cheese and wine.
In a separate report, professional services group EY issued even bleaker forecasts, predicting 30% tariffs would shave 1.4% off Italy's GDP for 2025-2026, effectively cutting to zero expected growth for the period.
Last month, national statistics agency Istat forecast GDP growth of 0.6% this year and 0.8% in 2026.
Italy's business lobby last week said the only acceptable US tariff would be zero as EU exports are already penalised by a depreciating dollar. The US currency has lost more than 12% against the euro since the start of the year.
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The Star
11 minutes ago
- The Star
Three years of Marcos' presidency: A mix of promises achieved, still hanging
MANILA: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (pic) started his six-year presidency when the Philippines was still reeling from the challenges brought about by 'some factors of our own making' and those 'that are beyond our control.' But still, in his first State of the Nation Address at the Batasang Pambansa in 2022, he pointed out that 'the state of the nation is sound,' stressing that 'I know this in my mind, I know it in my heart, I know it in my very soul.' A year later, he maintained 'the new Philippines is now here,' indicating that the 'state of the nation is sound, and is improving.' As he said, the government has 'highly competent and dedicated workers.' This, as he had previously set out the plans he had to improve the economy, bring employment to people, recalibrate the educational system, boost agricultural production, improve healthcare and keep on with the social programmes for the poor. Last year, however, in his third address, he pointed out a hard lesson – that even though the Philippines has been considered among the best-performing economies in Asia, 'it is nothing to a Filipino,' especially those making do with whatever little they have. He called on everyone in government to always think of what is best for the country. But with only three years left, is Marcos close to delivering on his promises? took a look, and as he already stated in 2023, there are 'successes that we can lay claim to' and 'challenges that we continue to face.' P20/kilo of rice The promise of rice being sold at P20 (US$0.35 cents) a kilo was one of the promises made by Marcos that hooked Filipinos, considering that the high price of the grain has always been a serious concern for many. While a kilo of local and imported rice is still high at P38 to P68, the grain is sold at P20 in government outlets, which now operate in almost 100 locations. 9% poverty rate Marcos made a commitment to bring down the poverty rate to a single digit, or nine per cent, by the end of his six-year presidency from the staggering 13.2 per cent in 2021. Based on data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), poverty incidence slightly fell to 10.9 per cent in 2023, the second year of the Marcos administration, or from 3.5 million to 3 million. 6.5 to 8% GDP growth yearly One of the targets he laid out was the 6.5 per cent to 8 per cent annual expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) starting in 2023 until 2028, and a five to 7.5 per cent GDP growth in 2022. While the Philippines, as stated by the government itself, is still 'slightly far' from hitting the 6.5 per cent to eight per cent mark, GDP expanded to 5.7 per cent in 2024 from 5.5 per cent in 2023. 3% national government deficit to GDP ratio The national government deficit to GDP fell by 0.6 percentage points to 5.6 per cent in 2024 from 6.2 per cent in 2023, indicating a medium likelihood of achieving the three per cent target that Marcos set in 2022. But while the current 'pace of improvement' is a challenge, the PSA pointed out that the decrease, even though minimal, reflected a 'progress in fiscal consolidation.' Less than 60% debt-to-GDP ratio As the PSA pointed out, there is still a medium likelihood that the target of a 48 per cent to 53 percent debt-to-GDP ratio will be met by the end of the presidency of Marcos. This, even though data showed that the debt-to-GDP ratio slightly increased in 2024 by 0.6 percentage points to 60.7 per cent from 60.1 per cent a year before. 'Upper-Middle Income' status Marcos previously committed to achieving an upper-middle income status by 2024, however, the Philippines retained its classification as a lower-middle income country last year. Based on data from the World Bank, the Philippines recorded a gross national income of US$4,470 for every individual in 2024, US$26 short of the US$4,496 threshold required to attain the higher status. 2% to 4% inflation rate Inflation, which tracks changes in the cost of living based on movements in the prices of a specified basket of primary commodities, declined to 3.2 per cent in 2024 from six per cent in 2023. This was already within the government's target of two to four per cent by 2028, but the inflation rate continued to decline to 1.4 per cent in June 2025 from the record-high 6.4 per cent in July 2022. Higher revenue collection As stated by Marcos in his first address, 'tax administration reforms will be in place to increase revenue,' a promise he reiterated in 2023, 'to bolster public investments.' Last year, revenue collection reached P4.419 trillion, or 16.72 per cent, exceeding the government's target of 16.9 per cent to 17.3 per cent by 2028, the Bureau of Treasury said. Investments in public infrastructure and people's abilities Back in 2023, Marcos said, 'Investments in public infrastructure and in the capacity of our people—through food, education, health, jobs, and social protection—remain our top priority.' As of 2025, 63.2 per cent of the national budget was for economic and social services. However, this is lower than the 67.5 per cent in 2024, 66.7 per cent in 2023, and 69 per cent in 2022. Renewable energy 'When it comes to energy, renewable energy is the way forward. We are aggressively promoting renewables, so that it provides a 35 per cent share in the power mix by 2030, and then on to 50 per cent by 2040,' Marcos said. However, renewable energy still accounts for only 22 per cent of electricity generation, based on the latest data from the Department of Energy, which is now keeping a close watch on 'sleeping' renewable energy initiatives. New, stronger schools As Marcos promised to make learners more resilient, he said, 'our public schools and facilities are being increased and fortified,' pointing out that 'the shortage of classrooms and facilities is being addressed.' Last year, the Department of Education said 3,524 new classrooms were being constructed, but as of May 2025, the Philippines still has a backlog of 165,000 classrooms. Better healthcare system Marcos stated in 2023 that structural changes are in place to improve the healthcare system, stressing how 3,400 initiatives have been completed in 2022 to increase public health facilities, both in number and in capability. As of 2024, however, the Department of Health said there are only 0.5 hospital beds available for every 1,000 people when it should be about 1.5 beds for every 1,000 individuals. Employment When Marcos delivered his address in 2023, the employment rate was at 75.7 per cent, but he himself recognised the need to do more, especially for the remaining 4.3 per cent jobless, as well as the 11.7 per cent who are seeking better work. But while Marcos said the government's aggressive efforts to attract more investors is expected to create over 350,000 jobs, the unemployment rate was still 3.8 per cent in 2024, while the underemployment rate slightly increased to 11.9 per cent. Socialised housing To address the 6.5 million housing backlog, Marcos committed to constructing one million socialised housing units yearly. As he previously pointed out, at least 1.2 million units have been started since he assumed office. Earlier this year, however, Malacañang admitted failing to reach its target because of certain obstacles relating to construction and contracting, with only 12,731 housing units completed last year. Build, Better, More Marcos stated in 2023 that the government is expanding the already existing government infrastructure projects all over the country, resulting in a total of 207, based on data from the Department of Public Works and Highways. Infrastructure Flagship Projects, are worth US$176.7 billion, but as of 2025, only eight have been completed, while 70 are ongoing. Almost 30 have already been approved for implementation. 'We prefer local production' Last year, Marcos bragged about the two million metric tonnes of locally produced rice, the highest since 1987, while pointing out that local production will be given the highest priority as the government also works to bring down food prices. But even though the government is providing assistance to local farmers, it imported 4.8 million metric tonnes of rice in 2024. Food inflation, however, decreased to 4.5 per cent in 2024 from eight per cent in 2023. Irrigating new farmlands As Marcos himself said, 'this year, we will irrigate almost 45,000 hectares of new land, while giving back life to the irrigation of almost 38,000 hectares of land across the country. However, as of December last year, the National Irrigation Administration implied that the commitment is yet to be completed, saying that '[it has] plans to irrigate at least 45,000 hectares of new farmland.' Land reform He stated last year that in land reform, programmes and distribution of land titles to farmers are continuous, and based on the latest government data, 194,111 electronic titles covering 229,546 hectares of farmland have already been distributed. This translated to a 1,100-per cent increase. Bloodless drug war Marcos said his campaign against illegal drugs is 'bloodless,' pointing out that it adheres to the established '8 Es' of an effective anti-illegal drug strategy. 'Extermination was never one of them,' he said. But based on a monitoring made by the University of the Philippines Third World Studies Centre, 1,022 individuals have already been killed in the campaign against illegal drugs since July 2022. - Philippine Daily Inquirer/ANN
Malaysiakini
11 minutes ago
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The Star
an hour ago
- The Star
Cambodia says immediate ceasefire purpose of talks; Thailand questions its sincerity
This pool photo taken and released on July 28, 2025 by Agence Kampuchea Presse (AKP) shows Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet gesturing to government officials before he departures to Malaysia for ceasefire talks with Thailand, at Phnom Penh international Airport in Phnom Penh on July 28, 2025. Thailand and Cambodia's leaders are due to meet for peace talks on July 28, as a festering territorial dispute along their shared frontier dragged into a fifth day of open combat. - AFP BANGKOK/PHNOM PENH: An immediate ceasefire in a deadly border dispute is the purpose of talks with Thailand on Monday (July 28), Cambodia's Prime Minister said, but his Thai counterpart said there were doubts about Cambodia's sincerity ahead of the negotiations in Malaysia. Monday's talks to end the deadliest fighting in more than a decade between the South-East Asian neighbours are being hosted by Malaysia, the chair of the regional Asean bloc. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet said the talks were co-organised by the United States, and that China would also take part in them. Both Thailand and Cambodia accuse the other of starting the hostilities last week and then escalating them. On Monday, officials from both countries said clashes along the disputed border were ongoing ahead of the talks later in the day. "We are not confident in Cambodia, their actions so far have reflected insincerity in solving the problem," acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai told reporters ahead of his departure for Kuala Lumpur. "Cambodia has violated international law, but everybody wants to see peace. Nobody wants to see violence that affects civilians." Cambodia has strongly denied Thai accusations it has fired at civilian targets, and has instead said that Thailand has put innocent lives at risk. It has called for the international community to condemn Thailand's aggression against it. "The purpose of this meeting is to achieve an immediate 'ceasefire', initiated by President Donald Trump and agreed to by the Prime Ministers of Cambodia and Thailand," Hun Manet said in a post on X as he departed for the talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said State Department officials would assist the peace efforts, after President Donald Trump had earlier said that he thought both leaders wanted to settle the conflict. The tensions between Thailand and Cambodia have intensified since the killing in late May of a Cambodian soldier during a brief skirmish. Border troops on both sides were reinforced amid a full-blown diplomatic crisis that brought Thailand's fragile coalition government to the brink of collapse. Malaysian Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had proposed ceasefire talks soon after the border dispute erupted into conflict on Thursday, and China and the United States also offered to assist in negotiations. Anwar said he expected to chair the negotiations after being asked by the two governments to try to find a peace settlement, state media agency Bernama reported on Sunday. "So, I'm discussing the parameters, the conditions, but what is important is (an) immediate ceasefire," Anwar said. Thailand and Cambodia have bickered for decades over undemarcated points along their 817-km (508-mile) land border, with ownership of the ancient Hindu temples Ta Moan Thom and the 11th century Preah Vihear central to the disputes. Preah Vihear was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962, but the situation worsened in 2008 after Cambodia attempted to list it as a UNESCO World Heritage site. Skirmishes over several years brought at least a dozen deaths. Cambodia said in June it had asked the court to resolve its disputes with Thailand. Bangkok says it has never recognised the court's jurisdiction and prefers a bilateral approach. - Reuters
