Handicappers S.M.I.L.E. on July champ

The Citizen

16 hours ago

The Real Prince raised five points for thrilling win.
The Real Prince, right, wins the Hollywoodbets Durban July at Greyville Racecourse on Sunday. Picture: Darren Stewart/Gallo Images
The Real Prince has been raised five merit points to 125 following his victory in the past weekend's Hollywoodbets Durban July at Greyville.
The National Horseracing Authority issued an unusually thorough explanation of their deliberations and decisions concerning South Africa's biggest race.
The NHA even used the adjective 'thrilling' to describe The Real Prince's win – though its officials are meant to be objective and dispassionate about their work.
The statement used other emotive words: 'This was a notable achievement from The Real Prince, as he had previously never raced beyond 1600m and, in fact, his pre-rating of 120 was earned exclusively over shorter trips.
'In handicapping terms, The Real Prince transitioned from the miler aptitude category to the longer-distance category – and did so with a resolute win.'
After all that enthusiasm, one might have expected more than five merit rating points.
The NHA continued: 'To structure distance aptitude assessments, handicappers often refer to the S.M.I.L.E. acronym:
S — Sprint (1000m-1300m)
M — Mile (1301m-1899m)
I — Intermediate (1900m-2100m)
L — Long (2101m-2700m)
E — Extended (2701m-and above)
'In determining the updated ratings, the handicappers unanimously selected Royal Victory, the ever-reliable fourth-place finisher, as the line horse, leaving him at a rating of 125. This approach also validated Madison Valley's performance, as the fifth-place finisher ran precisely to his mark of 115, effectively making him a second line horse.
'Eight On Eighteen, the gallant runner-up, reaffirmed his Daily News 2000 merit rating of 129 with a spirited performance. He finished narrowly behind the winner and 2.60 lengths ahead of the 125-rated Royal Victory while carrying 2kg less.'
The NHA went on the explain the 'maths for Eight On Eighteen's performance'.
• Base: MR 125 (Royal Victory, line horse)
• +4 MR points: Margin ahead of the line horse (2.60 lengths = 4 MR points), applying the length distance factor over 2200m
• –4 MR points: Weight difference as per race conditions (in receipt of 2kg)
• +4 MR points: Weight-for-Age adjustment (3yold WFA allowance in July over 2200m)
• Performance Rating: 129 – Final
Third-placed Selukwe was the only other runner to get an MR increase, moving from 111 to 115, justified by his under-sufferance position of 2kg going into the race.
All other participants maintained their prior ratings, except Purple Pitcher, whose merit rating was reduced from 122 to 121.
Assessment of the other Grade 1 race on Durban July day, the Ridgemont Garden Province Stakes over 1600m for females at weight-for-age, saw winner Double Grand Slam retain her official MR of 122.
'Having performed to expectations', she was used by the handicappers as the line horse to guide assessment of the field.
Runner-up Mon Petit Cherie, who finished 0.80 lengths behind, was raised from 113 to 120. Just Be Lekker, who was fourth, three lengths behind the winner, was raised from 109 to 116, 'reflecting the quality of her performance'.
I Am Giant has had his rating increased from 116 to 119 following his victory in the Grade 3 Post Merchants over 1200m.
King Pelles has been adjusted up from 112 to 118 following his easy victory in the Grade 3 Durban Gold Vase over 3000m. Fourth-placed Shoot The Rapids was the line horse and remains unchanged at 112.
'King Pelles delivered a performance that warranted a higher rating; however, his increase was capped at 118, in accordance with race conditions that limit adjustments to six points for winners and three points for placed runners,' explained the NHA.
Grade 3 Magical Zulu Kingdom 2200 winner Otto Luyken has been increased from 114 to 116. Due to interference affecting multiple runners in the closing stages, the handicappers assessed the race using the lowest possible route. Navajo Nation (runner-up) was selected as the line horse, retaining his rating of 104.
Further increases were Johnny The Thief from 92 to 94 and Count Huhtikulu from 91 to 95.
Sunday in Joburg saw Choisaanada complete a clean sweep of the inaugural Highveld Winter Series with victory in the 4Racing Sea Cottage Stakes over 1800m on the Turffontein Standside track.
Accordingly, his MR has been raised from 106 to 112.
'Although Choisaanada delivered a performance deserving of a higher rating, his merit was capped at 112 in accordance with the race conditions, which permit a maximum increase of six points for the winner and do not allow rating increases for placed horses,' said the handicapping team.