Nifty just in pause mode, all-time high possible before Diwali: Rahul Ghose

Economic Times

2 days ago

Markets extended their losing streak for the third consecutive week, with investor sentiment remaining subdued due to a lackluster start to the earnings season and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade deal.Similar to the previous week, the benchmark indices showed some strength during the initial three sessions. However, the mood shifted in the latter half, leading both the Nifty and Sensex to end near their weekly lows at 24,968.40 and 81,757.73, respectively.
Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat:
How are you reading the markets right now?
Right now, Indian markets are taking a much-needed breather. After a strong run earlier in the year, we've hit a consolidation phase—Nifty and Sensex have been under pressure for a few weeks in a row. There's definitely a sense of caution out there, partly because of mixed global signals and Q1 earnings being in focus. I'd say investors are taking stock and waiting to see which way the wind blows before making big moves. Make no mistake though, that the August month is going to see some big moves in the market in either direction.
Are there any global factors that you see that can affect our markets?Definitely—global cues are a big part of the story at the moment. First, persistent FII outflows are weighing on sentiment; foreign investors are pulling back as US rates stay higher for longer, making developed markets a bit more attractive than emerging ones like India for now.Also, we can't ignore geopolitical tensions and how they've pushed up crude oil prices. Since India is a big importer, that's an immediate worry for both inflation and the rupee. And then there's the recent wave of trade protectionism—we've seen new tariffs and measures from the US and EU, which isn't great news for Indian exporters. All in all, the external environment is a bit choppy.
What's your take on the broader Nifty trend, with the index ending lower for the third straight week? The Nifty's certainly feeling the heat after its blistering rally earlier in the year. If you look at the charts, the index is at an inflection point: there's firm resistance at the 25,300 mark and support near the 24500-24800 band. For now, it looks like a consolidation phase, not a reversal. The long-term bullish story remains intact, and I would stick my neck out and say that before Diwali, we might see the Nifty move to all-time high levels; it's just the near term that can see volatile moves.
Bank Nifty seemed stronger—how does it look now? Bank Nifty has been the surprising pocket of strength—it's held up better than broader indices so far and has been attracting buyers on dips. Right now, though, it's also showing signs of consolidation. Financial stocks are in a wait-and-watch mode with Q1 results coming in. I'd say Bank Nifty is still on a stronger footing, especially compared to sectors facing margin or demand pressures.
Any specific strategies for Nifty and Bank Nifty traders? For Nifty, my advice would be to watch for confirmed breakouts or breakdowns and avoid getting caught in the chop. If we break above 25,255 decisively, there could be quick upside—but keep tight stop-losses at 25,000, as volatility remains high.For Bank Nifty, buying on dips near 56,800–57,000 seems sensible, since the index is drawing buying interest at those levels. But be nimble; set clear exit points because sentiment can change quickly if results underwhelm.
FIIs remain net sellers. What do you make of this, and how dependent is the market on FIIs now? Yes, FII outflows are back in focus—over Rs 90,000 crore has left Indian equities this year, and July alone saw a sharp exodus. This is really about global risk-reward equations changing, not anything fundamentally wrong with India. Higher US yields and stretched valuations here mean foreign money is seeking other avenues.That said, India isn't as dependent on foreign flows as it once was. Domestic investors—both institutional and retail—are much more active and have been buyers on every dip. So, while FIIs can amplify short-term moves, domestic participation is giving our market a lot more resilience.
Where did you see a long buildup? What do you recommend among those stocks?
We're seeing long positions being built in names like Tata Consumer, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Trent, and M&M—sectors where earnings visibility is strong and thematic tailwinds exist. Out of these, I particularly like Tata Consumer and Trent for accumulation; both have good momentum and structural growth stories.
And what about shorting opportunities?
Short buildups have shown up in Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, SBI Life, and Wipro—mainly IT and a few financials hurt by guidance trims and margin pressure. These could be tactical short candidates, but my advice is to stay nimble here, as oversold bounces are also likely.
Let's also discuss Q1 earnings. How has the season turned out so far? Q1 numbers are a bit of a mixed bag. The headline Nifty 50 net profit growth—over 33% YoY—is impressive, but most of that came from margin expansion in consumer and retail names, and a few standout quarters in metals. IT and some global cyclicals have been softer, which is why the market tone is more cautious.
What's your view on RIL and Axis Bank after Q1 results? Reliance had a blockbuster quarter, driven by a huge jump in profits from telecom and retail. The Jio 5G rollout and robust retail segment are big positives. The Asian Paints stake sale also gave them a healthy one-off boost.Axis Bank delivered on the operating front, with stable core growth and healthy other income. While the headline profit was down YoY—mainly from base effect and some provisioning—the underlying business looks steady and the outlook remains constructive.
How do you see HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank placed now? Both are in a strong spot, barring some short-term volatility. Their loan growth remains robust, digital initiatives are paying off, and asset quality is stable. They're both still 'core portfolio' names for most investors, and any meaningful corrections are likely to draw buyers quickly.
Are any sectors outperforming? Yes, consumer durables have been a clear standout—profit growth has exploded, and demand trends look solid. Metals have rebounded thanks to commodity price cycles, and realty stocks are holding up well thanks to strong housing demand.Retail and telecom are also shining, with leaders consolidating market share and improving margins.
Can you name any stocks within those sectors? In consumer durables, Titan and Voltas look good. Among metals, Tata Steel and Hindalco are my preferred picks. On the retail side, Trent and DMart are doing everything right, and in telecom, I like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel for steady subscriber and revenue growth. Technically too the chart patterns in these suggest buy on dips. Note: In case any specific security/securities are displayed in the responses as examples, these securities are quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)