Latest news with #RahulGhose
Economic Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Nifty just in pause mode, all-time high possible before Diwali: Rahul Ghose
Markets extended their losing streak for the third consecutive week, with investor sentiment remaining subdued due to a lackluster start to the earnings season and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade to the previous week, the benchmark indices showed some strength during the initial three sessions. However, the mood shifted in the latter half, leading both the Nifty and Sensex to end near their weekly lows at 24,968.40 and 81,757.73, respectively. Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat: How are you reading the markets right now? Right now, Indian markets are taking a much-needed breather. After a strong run earlier in the year, we've hit a consolidation phase—Nifty and Sensex have been under pressure for a few weeks in a row. There's definitely a sense of caution out there, partly because of mixed global signals and Q1 earnings being in focus. I'd say investors are taking stock and waiting to see which way the wind blows before making big moves. Make no mistake though, that the August month is going to see some big moves in the market in either direction. Are there any global factors that you see that can affect our markets?Definitely—global cues are a big part of the story at the moment. First, persistent FII outflows are weighing on sentiment; foreign investors are pulling back as US rates stay higher for longer, making developed markets a bit more attractive than emerging ones like India for we can't ignore geopolitical tensions and how they've pushed up crude oil prices. Since India is a big importer, that's an immediate worry for both inflation and the rupee. And then there's the recent wave of trade protectionism—we've seen new tariffs and measures from the US and EU, which isn't great news for Indian exporters. All in all, the external environment is a bit choppy. What's your take on the broader Nifty trend, with the index ending lower for the third straight week? The Nifty's certainly feeling the heat after its blistering rally earlier in the year. If you look at the charts, the index is at an inflection point: there's firm resistance at the 25,300 mark and support near the 24500-24800 band. For now, it looks like a consolidation phase, not a reversal. The long-term bullish story remains intact, and I would stick my neck out and say that before Diwali, we might see the Nifty move to all-time high levels; it's just the near term that can see volatile moves. Bank Nifty seemed stronger—how does it look now? Bank Nifty has been the surprising pocket of strength—it's held up better than broader indices so far and has been attracting buyers on dips. Right now, though, it's also showing signs of consolidation. Financial stocks are in a wait-and-watch mode with Q1 results coming in. I'd say Bank Nifty is still on a stronger footing, especially compared to sectors facing margin or demand pressures. Any specific strategies for Nifty and Bank Nifty traders? For Nifty, my advice would be to watch for confirmed breakouts or breakdowns and avoid getting caught in the chop. If we break above 25,255 decisively, there could be quick upside—but keep tight stop-losses at 25,000, as volatility remains Bank Nifty, buying on dips near 56,800–57,000 seems sensible, since the index is drawing buying interest at those levels. But be nimble; set clear exit points because sentiment can change quickly if results underwhelm. FIIs remain net sellers. What do you make of this, and how dependent is the market on FIIs now? Yes, FII outflows are back in focus—over Rs 90,000 crore has left Indian equities this year, and July alone saw a sharp exodus. This is really about global risk-reward equations changing, not anything fundamentally wrong with India. Higher US yields and stretched valuations here mean foreign money is seeking other said, India isn't as dependent on foreign flows as it once was. Domestic investors—both institutional and retail—are much more active and have been buyers on every dip. So, while FIIs can amplify short-term moves, domestic participation is giving our market a lot more resilience. Where did you see a long buildup? What do you recommend among those stocks? We're seeing long positions being built in names like Tata Consumer, Tata Steel, Hindalco, Trent, and M&M—sectors where earnings visibility is strong and thematic tailwinds exist. Out of these, I particularly like Tata Consumer and Trent for accumulation; both have good momentum and structural growth stories. And what about shorting opportunities? Short buildups have shown up in Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, Infosys, SBI Life, and Wipro—mainly IT and a few financials hurt by guidance trims and margin pressure. These could be tactical short candidates, but my advice is to stay nimble here, as oversold bounces are also likely. Let's also discuss Q1 earnings. How has the season turned out so far? Q1 numbers are a bit of a mixed bag. The headline Nifty 50 net profit growth—over 33% YoY—is impressive, but most of that came from margin expansion in consumer and retail names, and a few standout quarters in metals. IT and some global cyclicals have been softer, which is why the market tone is more cautious. What's your view on RIL and Axis Bank after Q1 results? Reliance had a blockbuster quarter, driven by a huge jump in profits from telecom and retail. The Jio 5G rollout and robust retail segment are big positives. The Asian Paints stake sale also gave them a healthy one-off Bank delivered on the operating front, with stable core growth and healthy other income. While the headline profit was down YoY—mainly from base effect and some provisioning—the underlying business looks steady and the outlook remains constructive. How do you see HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank placed now? Both are in a strong spot, barring some short-term volatility. Their loan growth remains robust, digital initiatives are paying off, and asset quality is stable. They're both still 'core portfolio' names for most investors, and any meaningful corrections are likely to draw buyers quickly. Are any sectors outperforming? Yes, consumer durables have been a clear standout—profit growth has exploded, and demand trends look solid. Metals have rebounded thanks to commodity price cycles, and realty stocks are holding up well thanks to strong housing and telecom are also shining, with leaders consolidating market share and improving margins. Can you name any stocks within those sectors? In consumer durables, Titan and Voltas look good. Among metals, Tata Steel and Hindalco are my preferred picks. On the retail side, Trent and DMart are doing everything right, and in telecom, I like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel for steady subscriber and revenue growth. Technically too the chart patterns in these suggest buy on dips. Note: In case any specific security/securities are displayed in the responses as examples, these securities are quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. (Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty just in pause mode, all-time high possible before Diwali: Rahul Ghose
Markets extended their losing streak for the third consecutive week, with investor sentiment remaining subdued due to a lackluster start to the earnings season and ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-India trade deal. Similar to the previous week, the benchmark indices showed some strength during the initial three sessions. However, the mood shifted in the latter half, leading both the Nifty and Sensex to end near their weekly lows at 24,968.40 and 81,757.73, respectively. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Select a Course Category Operations Management PGDM Others Technology Data Analytics CXO Digital Marketing MBA Healthcare healthcare Finance Data Science Product Management Degree Project Management Public Policy MCA Leadership Management Cybersecurity Artificial Intelligence others Design Thinking Data Science Skills you'll gain: Quality Management & Lean Six Sigma Analytical Tools Supply Chain Management & Strategies Service Operations Management Duration: 10 Months IIM Lucknow IIML Executive Programme in Strategic Operations Management & Supply Chain Analytics Starts on Jan 27, 2024 Get Details Analyst Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech and , interacted with ET Markets regarding the outlook on Nifty and Bank Nifty for the upcoming week. Following are the edited excerpts from his chat: How are you reading the markets right now? Right now, Indian markets are taking a much-needed breather. After a strong run earlier in the year, we've hit a consolidation phase—Nifty and Sensex have been under pressure for a few weeks in a row. There's definitely a sense of caution out there, partly because of mixed global signals and Q1 earnings being in focus. I'd say investors are taking stock and waiting to see which way the wind blows before making big moves. Make no mistake though, that the August month is going to see some big moves in the market in either direction. Are there any global factors that you see that can affect our markets? Definitely—global cues are a big part of the story at the moment. First, persistent FII outflows are weighing on sentiment; foreign investors are pulling back as US rates stay higher for longer, making developed markets a bit more attractive than emerging ones like India for now. Also, we can't ignore geopolitical tensions and how they've pushed up crude oil prices. Since India is a big importer, that's an immediate worry for both inflation and the rupee. And then there's the recent wave of trade protectionism—we've seen new tariffs and measures from the US and EU, which isn't great news for Indian exporters. All in all, the external environment is a bit choppy. What's your take on the broader Nifty trend, with the index ending lower for the third straight week? The Nifty's certainly feeling the heat after its blistering rally earlier in the year. If you look at the charts, the index is at an inflection point: there's firm resistance at the 25,300 mark and support near the 24500-24800 band. For now, it looks like a consolidation phase, not a reversal. The long-term bullish story remains intact, and I would stick my neck out and say that before Diwali, we might see the Nifty move to all-time high levels; it's just the near term that can see volatile moves. Bank Nifty seemed stronger—how does it look now? Bank Nifty has been the surprising pocket of strength—it's held up better than broader indices so far and has been attracting buyers on dips. Right now, though, it's also showing signs of consolidation. Financial stocks are in a wait-and-watch mode with Q1 results coming in. I'd say Bank Nifty is still on a stronger footing, especially compared to sectors facing margin or demand pressures. Any specific strategies for Nifty and Bank Nifty traders? For Nifty, my advice would be to watch for confirmed breakouts or breakdowns and avoid getting caught in the chop. If we break above 25,255 decisively, there could be quick upside—but keep tight stop-losses at 25,000, as volatility remains high. For Bank Nifty, buying on dips near 56,800–57,000 seems sensible, since the index is drawing buying interest at those levels. But be nimble; set clear exit points because sentiment can change quickly if results underwhelm. FIIs remain net sellers. What do you make of this, and how dependent is the market on FIIs now? Yes, FII outflows are back in focus—over Rs 90,000 crore has left Indian equities this year, and July alone saw a sharp exodus. This is really about global risk-reward equations changing, not anything fundamentally wrong with India. Higher US yields and stretched valuations here mean foreign money is seeking other avenues. That said, India isn't as dependent on foreign flows as it once was. Domestic investors—both institutional and retail—are much more active and have been buyers on every dip. So, while FIIs can amplify short-term moves, domestic participation is giving our market a lot more resilience. Where did you see a long buildup? What do you recommend among those stocks? We're seeing long positions being built in names like Tata Consumer, Tata Steel , Hindalco, Trent, and M&M—sectors where earnings visibility is strong and thematic tailwinds exist. Out of these, I particularly like Tata Consumer and Trent for accumulation; both have good momentum and structural growth stories. And what about shorting opportunities? Short buildups have shown up in Tech Mahindra , IndusInd Bank, Infosys, SBI Life, and Wipro—mainly IT and a few financials hurt by guidance trims and margin pressure. These could be tactical short candidates, but my advice is to stay nimble here, as oversold bounces are also likely. Let's also discuss Q1 earnings. How has the season turned out so far? Q1 numbers are a bit of a mixed bag. The headline Nifty 50 net profit growth—over 33% YoY—is impressive, but most of that came from margin expansion in consumer and retail names, and a few standout quarters in metals. IT and some global cyclicals have been softer, which is why the market tone is more cautious. What's your view on RIL and Axis Bank after Q1 results? Reliance had a blockbuster quarter, driven by a huge jump in profits from telecom and retail. The Jio 5G rollout and robust retail segment are big positives. The Asian Paints stake sale also gave them a healthy one-off boost. Axis Bank delivered on the operating front, with stable core growth and healthy other income. While the headline profit was down YoY—mainly from base effect and some provisioning—the underlying business looks steady and the outlook remains constructive. How do you see HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank placed now? Both are in a strong spot, barring some short-term volatility. Their loan growth remains robust, digital initiatives are paying off, and asset quality is stable. They're both still 'core portfolio' names for most investors, and any meaningful corrections are likely to draw buyers quickly. Are any sectors outperforming? Yes, consumer durables have been a clear standout—profit growth has exploded, and demand trends look solid. Metals have rebounded thanks to commodity price cycles, and realty stocks are holding up well thanks to strong housing demand. Retail and telecom are also shining, with leaders consolidating market share and improving margins. Can you name any stocks within those sectors? In consumer durables, Titan and Voltas look good. Among metals, Tata Steel and Hindalco are my preferred picks. On the retail side, Trent and DMart are doing everything right, and in telecom, I like Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel for steady subscriber and revenue growth. Technically too the chart patterns in these suggest buy on dips. Note: In case any specific security/securities are displayed in the responses as examples, these securities are quoted are for illustration only and are not recommendatory. Economic Times )
Business Standard
7 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Octanom Tech's Hedged.in Wins 'WealthTech of the Year' Two Times in a Row at the Business World Festival of FinTech 2025
NewsVoir Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], July 17: Octanom Tech, a leading innovator in the WealthTech space, has been awarded the prestigious 'WealthTech of the Year' title at the Business World Festival of FinTech 2025. The award recognises Octanom Tech's commitment to redefining digital wealth management and making smart & safe investing accessible to India's underserved, first-time as well as savvy investors. The recognition was part of the 'India's Fintech Game Changers' showcase, which honoured 35 standout fintech leaders across key verticals including lending, insurance, infrastructure, and digital banking. Octanom Tech was acknowledged for its machine learning driven, behaviour-ally intelligent platform which offers investment solutions that are agnostic to market directions. Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech & said, "Receiving this recognition is a significant milestone--not just for me, but for the mission we've set out to achieve at Octanom Tech. Our goal has always been to level the playing field by making financial planning truly inclusive, data-driven and customer-first. We believe every Indian should have the tools to create wealth without having the fear of market direction--no matter what capital size they start from." With its technology-led model, Octanom Tech is transforming the way retail investors, HNI's & Family offices engage with capital markets. They are one of the only firms in the country who offer Investing & structured products which are not direction dependent, meaning that the alpha generation process is not dependent on the markets going up. The 5th edition of the BW Festival of FinTech brought together leading fintech visionaries, investors, and regulators to explore the future of financial services and honour the trailblazers building a more inclusive financial ecosystem. Octanom Tech is a leading WealthTech firm based out of Bombay and Bangalore dedicated to leveraging advanced technology to create innovative investment solutions. The company's flagship platform, Hedged, is designed to empower investors with lower-risk solutions, AI-driven investment strategies, helping them navigate the financial markets with confidence.
Fashion Value Chain
7 days ago
- Business
- Fashion Value Chain
Octanom Tech's Hedged.in Wins ‘WealthTech of the Year' Two Times in a Row at the Business World Festival of FinTech 2025
Octanom Tech, a leading innovator in the WealthTech space, has been awarded the prestigious 'WealthTech of the Year' title at the Business World Festival of FinTech 2025. The award recognises Octanom Tech's commitment to redefining digital wealth management and making smart & safe investing accessible to India's underserved, first-time as well as savvy investors. Octanom Tech winning the 'WealthTech of the Year' at the BW Festival of FinTech 2025 The recognition was part of the 'India's Fintech Game Changers' showcase, which honoured 35 standout fintech leaders across key verticals including lending, insurance, infrastructure, and digital banking. Octanom Tech was acknowledged for its machine learning driven, behaviour-ally intelligent platform which offers investment solutions that are agnostic to market directions. Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO, Octanom Tech & said, 'Receiving this recognition is a significant milestone-not just for me, but for the mission we've set out to achieve at Octanom Tech. Our goal has always been to level the playing field by making financial planning truly inclusive, data-driven and customer-first. We believe every Indian should have the tools to create wealth without having the fear of market direction-no matter what capital size they start from.' With its technology-led model, Octanom Tech is transforming the way retail investors, HNI's & Family offices engage with capital markets. They are one of the only firms in the country who offer Investing & structured products which are not direction dependent, meaning that the alpha generation process is not dependent on the markets going up. The 5th edition of the BW Festival of FinTech brought together leading fintech visionaries, investors, and regulators to explore the future of financial services and honour the trailblazers building a more inclusive financial ecosystem. About Octanom Tech Octanom Tech is a leading WealthTech firm based out of Bombay and Bangalore dedicated to leveraging advanced technology to create innovative investment solutions. The company's flagship platform, Hedged, is designed to empower investors with lower-risk solutions, AI-driven investment strategies, helping them navigate the financial markets with confidence.
Mint
16-07-2025
- Business
- Mint
Expert view: Rahul Ghose of Hedged.in on key triggers for Indian stock market, top stocks to buy and more
Expert view: Rahul Ghose, the founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged In, believes tariff clarity and healthy Q1 earnings are key to a sustained rally in the Indian stock market. In an interview with Mint, Ghose shared his views on a potential India-US trade deal and its impact on the Indian stock market and different sectors and his top stock picks. Here are edited excerpts of the interview: The Indian equity market has been subdued recently, largely due to tariff uncertainties and global trade tensions. The sell-off has been broad-based, with sectors like IT, auto, and metals underperforming, and major indices such as the Nifty 50 and the Sensex closing lower for several sessions. For bulls to regain strength, the following catalysts will be crucial: (I) Clarity on tariffs: A resolution or positive progress on tariff negotiations, especially with the US, could eliminate a major overhang and restore investor confidence. (ii) Strong domestic flows: Continued inflows from the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have provided some support, and a pickup in retail participation could further stabilise markets. (iii) Robust corporate earnings: Positive surprises in the ongoing Q1 earnings season, especially from large-cap names, could trigger a reversal in sentiment. (iv) Global stability: Easing of global uncertainties, including US monetary policy clarity and a reduction in geopolitical tensions, would also help risk appetite return. The anticipation around an India-US trade deal has been high, with markets closely tracking negotiations ahead of recent tariff deadlines. While some optimism has already been priced in, a concrete, favourable deal—especially one that reduces or eliminates tariffs on key Indian exports—could provide a meaningful boost to market sentiment. However, much depends on the scope and depth of the agreement: (I) If the deal is comprehensive and covers sensitive sectors, it could trigger a strong rally. (ii) If it is a phased or limited deal, the impact may be more muted, as markets have partially discounted such an outcome. A successful trade deal with the US is expected to benefit several export-oriented and globally competitive sectors in India: (i) Pharma – Lower US tariffs would boost exports if regulatory hurdles are eased. (ii) Textiles and apparel – Direct beneficiaries of reduced tariffs. (iii) Auto components – Could see improved access and competitiveness in US markets. (iv) IT services – stability and clarity on digital trade rules would help. (v) Renewable energy – Possible boost from increased US-India collaboration. As of July 2025, Indian equities are trading at elevated valuations, with the Nifty and Sensex having seen a sharp run-up over the past year. The market capitalisation stood at $4.39 trillion in February 2025, down from a peak of $5.66 trillion in September 2024, reflecting some recent correction. Current valuations remain above historical averages, driven by strong domestic flows and high expectations for structural growth. However, the sustainability of these levels will depend on: (I)The pace of earnings growth in FY26 and beyond. (ii)Stability in global risk factors. (iii)The ability of the market to absorb any negative surprises in policy or earnings. If earnings growth disappoints or global headwinds intensify, there is a risk of further correction. Early indications suggest that the Q1FY26 earnings season will be modest, with consensus estimates pointing to 2.5–6 per cent year-on-year topline growth for India Inc., and margin improvement in select sectors like auto, consumer durables, FMCG, pharma, and power. However, revenue growth is expected to be lower than in previous quarters, and margin pressures persist in banks and rate-sensitive sectors. Unless there are significant positive surprises, the earnings season is unlikely to drive the market to new record highs in the near term. Most brokerages are hoping for a more sustained rally in the second half of FY26 (H2FY26). If I were to invest ₹ 1 lakh in the current market, I would focus on sectors with a combination of structural growth drivers, export potential, and relative valuation comfort: (i)Pharmaceuticals: Benefiting from global demand and potential tariff relief. (ii) Textiles and apparel: Gaining from US tariff changes and export competitiveness. (iii) Renewable energy: Supported by policy tailwinds and global collaboration. (iv) Select financials (banks/NBFCs): Benefiting from domestic consumption and credit growth. (v) Consumer durables: Riding on urban demand and margin recovery. (i) CEAT: Quality and earnings upgrades. Technically strong with no near-term resistance. (ii) Union Bank of India: Improving financials and positive momentum. Revival in rural demand and improved earnings. Positive momentum due to the new CEO. Read all market-related news here Read more stories by Nishant Kumar Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
