Three years on: How Russia's invasion reshaped energy prices across Europe

Euronews

24-02-2025

Three years ago, on 24 February, Russia invaded Ukraine. The war is still ongoing and has had a significant impact on energy prices, with the share of Russia's pipeline gas in EU imports dropping from over 40% in 2021 to about 8% in 2023, according to the European Council.
A massive Russian military build-up and escalating hostile rhetoric in 2021, signalling a planned attack on Ukraine, had already triggered a sharp surge in energy commodity prices throughout the year. While European governments implemented various policies to ease the impact on households, household energy prices continued to rise gradually throughout 2021 and surged further following the invasion.
Selecting a baseline for price comparisons is challenging. To better illustrate the impact of price fluctuations on households, we use multiple comparisons based on the Household Energy Price Index (HEPI), compiled by Energie-Control Austria, MEKH, and VaasaETT.
The "Pre-Invasion One-Year Average" represents the 12-month period from February 2021 to January 2022, while the "Three-Year Post-Invasion Average" covers from February 2022 to January 2025.
During the pre-invasion period, the average residential end-user electricity price in EU capitals was 20.5 c€/kWh, rising to 26.5 c€/kWh in the post-invasion period - an increase of 29.5%.
During this period, Amsterdam saw the highest increase, with electricity prices rising by 76%, followed by Rome (74%) and Vilnius (64%).
"Fossil fuel-dependent markets like the Netherlands faced higher volatility, highlighting the role of energy diversification and regulatory frameworks in price stability," Ivana Rogulj, Wolfgang Eichhammer, and Stavros Spyridakos, experts at the Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy (IEECP), told Euronews Business.
Dr. Yousef Alshammari, President of the London College of Energy Economics, noted that natural gas accounts for 45% of Italy's electricity mix, while renewables contribute no more than 30%.
Among the capitals of Europe's top five economies, London (47%) recorded the second-largest increase after Rome. Paris (30%) was slightly above the EU average (29.5%), while Berlin (19%) experienced a more moderate rise.
The impact of electricity mix
In contrast, Madrid saw a slight decline (0.4%) in electricity prices between the pre-invasion and post-invasion periods.
Regarding why households in Spain have been significantly less affected by the surge in electricity prices, Rogulj, Eichhammer and Spyridakos explained: "Spain's significant wind, solar, and hydro capacity reduced reliance on fossil fuels, limiting exposure to external price shocks.
"Spain's regulated electricity tariff (PVPC) balanced price volatility by linking retail electricity prices to longer-term wholesale market averages, protecting consumers from extreme short-term fluctuations", they added.
When non-EU capitals are included, Oslo recorded the steepest decline, with electricity prices falling by 10%, followed by Budapest (-9%) and Bucharest (-8%). These cities stand out as exceptions to the overall trend of rising electricity prices across Europe.
The changes are in euros, not local currencies, which may affect the results.
These results indicate that Western and Northern Europe experienced the sharpest electricity price hikes, while Baltic and Eastern European capitals also saw significant increases. In contrast, Southern Europe faced more moderate price changes.
IEECP experts Rogulj, Eichhammer, and Spyridakos stated: "Nordic countries benefit from renewable electricity production from hydropower, geothermal, and wind, reducing exposure to fossil fuel price volatility."
Electricity prices: Before the crisis vs today
Comparing electricity prices from early 2021, when the market was more stable and before tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, to January 2025, reveals significant increases. Households in EU capitals paid 36% more for electricity in January 2025 compared to January 2021.
When Kyiv is excluded from the analysis, Amsterdam records the highest increase, with electricity prices rising by 89% over this four-year period. Significant increases were also observed in Vilnius (81%), Brussels (77%), and Bern (76%).
On the other hand, Budapest (-13%) was the only capital where prices declined.
Among the top five economies, London saw the highest surge, with electricity prices rising by 66%, followed by Rome (60%) and Paris (45%).
If we compare January 2022 to January 2025, household electricity prices, including taxes, increased by only 3.4% on average across EU capitals. In the EU, the highest increase was recorded in Vilnius (53%), followed by Paris (34%).
In the non-EU capital Bern, prices rose by 69% over the same period.
Several cities experienced notable declines in electricity prices over the past three years. Oslo saw the sharpest drop at 25%, followed by London (-21%) and Bucharest (-20%) and Copenhagen (-20%).
High price volatility in the post-invasion period
As the line chart below illustrates, electricity prices fluctuated significantly in the capitals of the top five economies following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Over the past four years, Rome experienced the highest recorded level, reaching 68.7 c€/kWh in October 2022, compared to 43.7 c€/kWh in July 2022.
Similarly, London's electricity prices peaked at 64.2 c€/kWh in August 2022, before dropping to 39.5 c€/kWh the following month.
Paris had the most stable prices over this period.
How have residential gas prices changed since the Russian invasion?
We only have gas price data for October 2021 before the invasion, while the full dataset is available from January 2022 onward. This means we cannot calculate a pre-invasion average, but the available data still provides valuable insights into price trends.
In October 2021, the residential end-user gas price in EU capitals averaged 8.5 c€/kWh. By January 2022, it had already increased to 11.3 c€/kWh, before peaking at 16.5 c€/kWh in September 2022, the highest level recorded in the past three years.
As of January 2025, prices had declined to 11.1 c€/kWh, slightly below January 2022 levels, yet still significantly higher than pre-invasion prices.
Stockholm recorded the highest three-year post-invasion average (February 2022– January 2025) at 28.7 c€/kWh, followed by Amsterdam at 21.6 c€/kWh.
The nature of Sweden's gas market plays a crucial role in this dynamic.
Amsterdam hit hardest by surging gas prices in 2022
Throughout 2022, households in Amsterdam were hit the hardest by surging gas prices. That year, the annual average gas price in Amsterdam reached 31.0 c€/kWh, significantly higher than Stockholm's 23.9 c€/kWh, despite Stockholm leading in the three-year average.
Rogulj, Eichhammer, and Spyridakos from the IEECP also attributed rising gas prices in the Netherlands to the suspension of production at the Groningen gas field due to earthquake risks.
Budapest (2.6 c€/kWh), Belgrade (4.1 c€/kWh), and Zagreb (4.7 c€/kWh) recorded the lowest three-year average gas prices.
In Prague, the three-year average gas price was 110% higher than in October 2021, followed by Berlin (97%), Dublin (86%) and Amsterdam (77%), while the EU average stood at +37%.
Dr. Cyril Stephanos from acatech, the National Academy of Science and Engineering, pointed out that Germany had no operational LNG terminals at the time of Russia's attack on Ukraine.
"Both Germany and Austria have been highly dependent on natural gas imports from Russia", he said.
These have been partially substituted by increased supplies from Norway and through the LNG market. "However, LNG imports tend to be more expensive than pipeline gas due to the additional costs of compression, transportation, and decompression", he added.
IEECP experts also emphasised that seeking costly alternatives led to sharp price hikes.
In contrast, Budapest (-26%) and Bucharest (-9%) saw lower gas prices compared to October 2021.
Despite recent price stabilisation, gas prices in EU capitals were still 31% higher in January 2025 compared to October 2021. Warsaw saw the sharpest increase (109%), followed by Lisbon (77%) and Berlin (72%).
Gas prices were highly volatile throughout 2022, with Amsterdam experiencing significant fluctuations. However, starting in 2023, prices became more stable compared to 2022, particularly in Amsterdam and the top five European economies.
Dr. Alshammari explained that multiple measures taken across Europe have contributed to cooling down natural gas prices. These measures include filling gas storage to nearly 100% capacity, securing alternative suppliers, implementing a price cap on Russian gas, which still allows European countries to import, and adopting energy efficiency measures to reduce energy demand.
The performance of the EU
Professor Jan Osicka, Program Director of Energy Policy Studies at Masaryk University in Czechia, believes that the EU has managed the crisis well.
"The solidarity mechanism has worked, the internal market has remained functional and its design hasn't been tampered with too much", he said.
However, Rogulj, Eichhammer, and Spyridakos emphasise that long-term price stability depends on global supply dynamics and the acceleration of renewable energy integration, especially in the gas sector.