‘Lets brace ourselves for uncertainty…': LGT Wealth's Nikhil Advani warns investors ahead of Trump's tariff deadline
The S&P 500 is trading at a record high, and this is being driven by a handful of mega tech stocks and bullishness around artificial intelligence. However, certain areas of the technology sector are vulnerable to tariffs as hardware manufacturers and semiconductor producers rely on components from various countries.
Industries with deep global supply chains such as automobile manufacturing, heavy machinery and consumer electronics may face increased costs and reduced profit margins, which can lead to stock price drops. For example, General Motors last week blamed tariffs for a $1.1 billion hit to its second-quarter profits, leading to a 7% fall in stock price.
Currently, an across the board 10% tariff applies on almost all US imports, except on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and a few other items that are deemed to be critical for US production competitiveness.
Baseline tariffs for major trading partners that will come into effect from 1 August are as follows: 30% on the European Union, 50% on Brazil and 26% on India.
The tariff situation with China is complex and has seen various changes. For example, in May 2025, the US reduced its tariffs on most Chinese goods from 145% to 30%. The current rate on some Chinese goods is 55%, with additional tariffs paused for ongoing trade talks. Retaliatory measures from trading partners can escalate into a trade war, which would be detrimental to global commerce.
The EU states have voted for tariffs of up to 30% on EUR 93 billion of US exports to the EU, to take effect on 7 August.
Countries are working against the clock to secure a trade agreement. The US and Japan have announced a trade deal that moves the US import tariff down to 15% from 25%. Terms of the deal include a commitment from Japan to invest $500 billion in the US and open its market to American rice and cars. The US and the EU seem to be closing in on a similar deal that would levy 15% reciprocal tariffs on most EU exports to the US. Indonesia and the Philippines have also announced trade deals with the US.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has commented that the administration is more concerned with the quality of trade deals, rather than timing of the deals. Commerce secretary Howard Lutnick has stated that new tariff rates will come into effect on 1 August, and while negotiations can continue, countries will begin paying the tariffs from that date.
The market is weighing the potential for a trade breakthrough against the real and significant risks of higher costs, slower growth, and increased inflation. Let's brace ourselves for uncertainty and potential economic disruption.
The author, Nikhil Advani, is the Managing Director of International Business at LGT Wealth India.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making investment decisions.
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