CSIRO creates 3D model of Richmond River catchment to test flood mitigation options
In an effort to better understand flood behaviour in one of the wettest parts of Australia, scientists have turned the region's river system into a virtual model.
The CSIRO has mapped the Richmond River catchment in northern New South Wales at an unprecedented level of detail.
The first-of-its-kind model will help test the most effective way of protecting communities against floods.
Senior principal research scientist Jai Vaze said it was a detailed mathematical representation of the 7,000-square-kilometre catchment.
It includes millions of data inputs capturing flood-relevant factors including topography, hydrology, evaporation, soil types and vegetation.
"To look at any flood-mitigation scenarios reliably, whether it will work or not, you need a catchment-scale model," Dr Vaze said.
The model shows how flooding unfolded across a six-week period in 2022 across the catchment.
Its pinpoint accuracy relies in part on Bureau of Meteorology rainfall data refined to hourly readings localised to one-square-kilometre grids.
It may sound simple enough, but the model has been the result of more than two years of painstaking work by Dr Vaze and his team.
Lidar technology with 3D laser scanning gathered 16 measurement points per square metre across 30,000 square kilometres of the Tweed, Brunswick, Richmond and Clarence river catchments.
The team used sonar to collect high-resolution data on river depths and riverbed undulation.
Dr Vaze said the model would have the capacity to accurately test the effect of various flood mitigation options, or "bundles" of options, that could include hard infrastructure such as levees.
He said the project shifted the dial from reactive flood responses to actively planning ahead to mitigate their effects.
"The government wanted to look at whether something could really be done [to mitigate flooding].
"There are a number of local area models built over past decades, but a full catchment model was needed to answer any real questions for flood mitigation."
The 2022 Northern Rivers floods have cost the NSW and federal governments $880 million in reactive solutions designed to move people off the flood plain, or elevate and retrofit people's homes to withstand the next flood when it inevitably comes.
A further $150 million has been allocated to resilience measures including repairs and upgrades to pumping stations, improvements to town drains and flood channels, establishing community-led resilience teams and reforestation projects.
The Lismore Citizens Flood Review Group has been lobbying for action to address flooding in the catchment since the Cyclone Debbie flood of 2017, and worked closely with Dr Vaze to feed local knowledge into the model.
Beth Trevan and her son Richard said it was serendipitous good fortune that led to then National Recovery and Resilience Agency coordinator Shane Stone supporting and funding the project.
Mrs Trevan said it was also the region's great fortune that Dr Vaze was assigned to do the job.
"He is totally committed to the region and solving the problem," she said.
"He has given his life to it for the past three years, seven days a week — he never stops working on it.
"What is being developed is international best practice; it's not only going to be a template for Australia, it's going to be a template internationally.
Richard Trevan said a lot was riding on the success of the model in coming up with flood-mitigation solutions for the Richmond River catchment.
"We are the most at-risk community in the nation for floods, but to date fully effective solutions have not been implemented," Mr Trevan said.
"Nationally, just 3 per cent of government funding has gone into mitigation while 97 per cent is spent on recovery.
"Lismore has one chance to get this right. For us, it's about getting the final recommendation to the point where our politicians can actually move forward and make the kinds of changes that are needed.
"Ultimately, for our kids and our grandkids, we want them to be able to look back at this moment and say that we got it right."
Whian Whian resident Patrick Tatam has lived for a decade at the headwaters of a tributary feeding the catchment.
When the rain really comes down at his place, two-hourly checks of his rain gauge reveal what's in store for downstream communities including Lismore, Coraki and Woodburn.
He is skeptical that anything can be done to protect them.
"It is strong and violent."
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ABC News
4 hours ago
- ABC News
Lab Notes: What we can learn from the world's cleanest air
News Grab: It's the early morning vista that Sydneysiders have become accustomed to. Thick smoke from the bushfires enveloping the city. The air quality index peaked at North Parramatta and Macquarie Park, ten points higher than Beijing. We Belinda Smith: often hear about places with bad air quality, both here and overseas. News Grab: Toxic particulates in Delhi's air measured over 700 micrograms on a scale where an annual average above 5 is deemed unsafe. Belinda Smith: But what about where the air is, well, not just clean, but cleaner than anywhere else on earth? Well, it turns out that air can be found blowing onto the north-west tip of Tassie at a place called Kennaook/Cape Grim. There, you'll find an air pollution station, which, along with a bunch of similar facilities around the world, has quietly been keeping track of how we humans have been changing the make up of our atmosphere. And it's been doing this for nearly 50 years. So what can we learn from the world's cleanest air? Hi, I'm Belinda Smith, and you're listening to Lab Notes, the show that dissects the science behind new discoveries and current events. To explain what's going on at Kennaook/Cape Grim, is Ruhi Humphries, an atmospheric scientist at the CSIRO. So why is it important to collect this data? Ruhi Humphries: You could very easily ask, it's super clean, why do we care? But if you're going on a diet, you need to know your before weight, so you can figure out your after weight and how much you've lost. And for climate change, if we want to understand our impact, and thus how to mitigate that effectively, we need to know what the atmosphere looks like without that pollution. Belinda Smith: This station's been measuring the air for nearly 50 years now. What's so important about all that historical data? Ruhi Humphries: Ideally, we'd build a time machine and we'd go back to the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, and measure the atmosphere there. And we can kind of do that with ice cores, with some components, but with many components we can't do that. And so we have to find a location on the planet which is as clean as possible, without human influence as possible, so that we can really define that pristine baseline really well, so then we can understand what the impact of humans is, and thus how to mitigate for it. Belinda Smith: That pristine baseline is measured in a place that cops winds straight off the Southern Ocean. And being there, unsurprisingly, it's... Ruhi Humphries: remote and windy. I was looking at the data this morning, actually, and the wind speeds for the last 24 hours have been a minimum of 60km an hour. Oh, wow. Just Belinda Smith: a breeze, really. Yeah, Ruhi Humphries: yeah. Belinda Smith: What does the air feel like when it goes into your lungs when you're standing there? Ruhi Humphries: It gets pushed in, because it's so windy. But, yeah, it's just clean marine air. It's salty and doesn't smell like much, really, other than salt. Belinda Smith: How do you know this air is the cleanest in the world? How do you measure that? Ruhi Humphries: Same way you measure the dirty air, but you just have to have really sensitive instruments. Belinda Smith: And Kennaook/Cape Grim gets a thing called the baseline sector from the southwest winds. Ruhi Humphries: That's air that's come off the Southern Ocean and really hasn't touched land or had human influence for weeks, and a lot of the time has come off the Antarctic continent as well. So it's super clean, super pristine. Belinda Smith: What sorts of things do you measure? Ruhi Humphries: Your standard MET package, wind direction, temperature, that kind of stuff. But the main focus is really atmospheric composition, so what gases are there and what particles are there. So we've got greenhouse gas measurements, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, that kind of stuff. We take flask measurements for CFCs and other long-lived fluorocarbons. Belinda Smith: So they're things that can destroy ozone. Ruhi Humphries: Exactly, yep. We do reactive gases like ozone, so ozone in the troposphere, so the part of the atmosphere where we live, rather than the stratosphere, which is where ozone's really good in the stratosphere, protects all life from UV. In the troposphere, it's a pollutant, and so you really need to measure it. Belinda Smith: So 50 years ago, when Kennaook/Cape Grim, was identified as a primo posse to keep tabs on the atmosphere, an ex-NASA monitoring station, which was basically a very large caravan, was set up at the site to begin collecting data. Now there's a proper building and everything, so the facility has changed a bit. But more importantly, how has the air changed over that time? Ruhi Humphries: There at Cape Grim, we've seen a 20% increase in a lot of the greenhouse gases around the world. The Southern Ocean is a really great place to measure that, because the Southern Hemisphere has about 10% land mass, I believe, and so you don't get that biosphere cycle that you get in the Northern Hemisphere. Belinda Smith: Is that when plants use more carbon in the growing months and less in the wintry months? Correct, Ruhi Humphries: yep. So you see this, basically, the biosphere breathe in and then breathe out and breathe in and breathe out with that seasonal cycle. So that's a lot less in the Southern Hemisphere, compared to the Northern Hemisphere, but you still see this really stark upward trend in all the greenhouse gases. Belinda Smith: The Kennaook/ Cape Grim facility also picks up the signatures of big events that chuck a whole bunch of stuff into the atmosphere, like the 2020 bushfires. Ruhi Humphries: They could be detected by monitoring stations all around the world. A lot of those fires actually went east from the east coast, and so in Cape Grim, we only would have seen them if they'd go right around the globe and then come back and then hit us at Cape Grim. When the wind was coming from the north, though, absolutely, we saw them, and we saw that smoke, and that's an active area of research that we use Kenilk, Cape Grim data for. Once those plumes, though, are above that surface layer, which happens quite quickly because they're so hot, we see them in different types of measurements. So instead of instruments where we've literally stuck a tube out the window and we're sucking air in at 10 metres above the ground, we actually have remote sensing instruments like they have on satellites where you've got an instrument on the ground looking up at the sun, and so anything in that path between that instrument and the sun, you can see. Belinda Smith: I'm curious as to whether COVID made any difference to the measurements that you got at Cape Grim. Did that affect anything? Ruhi Humphries: It's a big question that a lot of people around the world have tried to answer in terms of what impact COVID had on climate change. I think the short answer is it may have slowed it down for a moment, but not by much. Just for a moment. Just for a moment. Belinda Smith: Yep. What about air quality? Ruhi Humphries: Air quality was definitely improved. Air quality is a bit different, though, because it's a short-term phenomenon. So a lot of the stuff that impacts air quality will kind of â€' the lifetimes of those species in the atmosphere is quite short, and so once you remove the source, it doesn't take long for the air quality to drastically improve. So when you shut down a whole city, you get rid of all the cars and reduce your industry, your air quality will drastically improve. Belinda Smith: Until everything starts up again. Until everything starts up again, exactly. Ruhi Humphries: So the long-term solutions to air quality improvement are cleaner technology and getting rid of industries that â€' or cleaning up industries that are highly polluting. Belinda Smith: Kennaook/Cape Grim also measures tiny particles that are suspended in the wind and the atmosphere? These are known as aerosols. Ruhi Humphries: That could be sea salt or like sulfate aerosols or soot from cars or all sorts of things like that. And again, there's natural aerosols and then there's anthropogenic aerosols as well. But one of the really cool things that's happening at the moment at Cape Grim is we've got heaps of instruments to measure clouds and how the aerosols interact with clouds and really impact the properties of the clouds. Belinda Smith: Properties such as how much sunlight and heat they reflect back into space. Ruhi Humphries: You're in an aeroplane and you look down and there's clouds there and it's super reflective and you've got to put your sunnies on. If the clouds aren't there, you don't really need your sunnies. That reflection is really impacting how much light is getting to the surface, how much heat is getting to the surface, therefore what your climate is doing with that heat and how much of that heat can get trapped back into the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases. So Belinda Smith: just getting back to aerosols, what do they have to do with clouds? Ruhi Humphries: All clouds basically need an aerosol particle to form. So to form a cloud droplet, if you didn't have a little particle on which the water vapour can actually condense, then you'd need about 300% relative humidity to form a cloud. Right, okay, so it's like Belinda Smith: dust or something? Yeah, so you've Ruhi Humphries: got dust or sea salt aerosol or sulphate from cars or anything like that. So we call them cloud condensation nuclei. And so the number of those cloud condensation nuclei determines how many water droplets are in your cloud. And that determines your cloud lifetime and how reflective your cloud is. So in a polluted area, you might have lots and lots of aerosol particles. And so therefore your cloud droplets are much smaller for the given amount of water. You're dividing your amount of water into many particles and many droplets rather than just a few. Whereas in the clean atmosphere where there's not many aerosol particles, your cloud droplets therefore become bigger. Belinda Smith: And so what does that do to the reflectivity of the cloud? Ruhi Humphries: So the more droplets that you've got, the smaller they are, the more they reflect. Belinda Smith: Oh, okay, all right. So the cloud cover here would be more reflective than the cloud cover over the Southern Ocean then? Yes, Ruhi Humphries: except that the Southern Ocean is one of the cloudiest places in the world. Oh, okay. So you've almost always got cloud there as well. Belinda Smith: Okay, so basically clouds are super complex. Ruhi Humphries: One of the key things is that the Northern Hemisphere is much more polluted than the Southern Hemisphere. But the Northern Hemisphere is where 90% of the world's population live and that's where a lot more of the research happens. And so we understand that environment a lot more because there's been more studies there. Whereas in the Southern Ocean and Antarctica and our region, there's just less of that research happening, so we have less understanding of what's going on here. Belinda Smith: Yeah, and what's going on here, you know, this whole half of the planet is pretty important when it comes to figuring out what to expect climate-wise. Ruhi Humphries: It's probably one of the biggest uncertainties in climate models at the moment. And one of the things that really illustrates that to me is that there are so many international projects happening to try and answer this question. In the Southern Ocean and Antarctica, there's at least 25 in the last five years. There's a real focus from international agencies on trying to answer this question, like how are the clouds impacted by the aerosols and the biology that produces those aerosols. Belinda Smith: Clouds are having their moment. Ruhi Humphries: They are. They are. They're super important and super complex. Belinda Smith: Adding to all this complexity are tiny organisms in the Southern Ocean called phytoplankton. They form the base of the marine food chain, but they also churn out stuff which can control the clouds above too. Ruhi Humphries: So phytoplankton emit a range of different sulphur compounds and one of the really important ones that we've known about for a long time is dimethyl sulphide. And so these phytoplankton emit this in the ocean and then that then vents out into the atmosphere and then that undergoes chemistry to get to sulphur dioxide, which then goes to sulphuric acid, which then clumps together into aerosol particles and grows into sizes generally, which they can be cloud condensation nuclei. Belinda Smith: And boom, there's your cloud. Ruhi Humphries: So there's this theory that phytoplankton can control the clouds, right? And then there's this whole feedback mechanism, right? Because the clouds then shade the sun and the phytoplankton feed off the sunlight and so then they produce less. Oh, so it's self-regulating. Yes, exactly. So that's a theory that's been around for 40, 50 years and some level of truth to it, but it's way more complicated than they initially suggested. Belinda Smith: Feels like anything to do with the climate is way more complicated than was initially thought. Ruhi Humphries: I think so, yes. Belinda Smith: That was Ruhi Humphries, an atmospheric scientist at the CSIRO. And thanks for listening to Lab Notes on ABC Radio National, where every week we dissect the science behind new discoveries and current events. I'm Belinda Smith. This episode was produced on the lands of the Wurundjeri and Menang Noongar people. Fiona Pepper's the producer and it was mixed by Roi Huberman. We'll catch you next week.
ABC News
4 hours ago
- ABC News
Domestic violence victim-survivors share early warning signs of abuse
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The report mapped different types of abuse over time and identified behavioural patterns, which can help women, along with health workers and others in their lives, recognise early red flags and intervene before violence escalates, she says. "The psychological, emotional and physical health of women who are in relationships where there is abuse is worse than women who are not. "And those health impacts last long after the relationship is over." We spoke with victim-survivors independent of the research, including some from Advocates for Change with Engender Equality, based in Tasmania/Lutruwita, about the early warning signs they identified retrospectively since escaping violence. Some names and details have been changed to protect the identity of contributors. The experiences below may be distressing for readers. Looking back there were signs from early in the relationship, like him being jealous, controlling how long I should wear my hair, or him driving off dangerously during an argument. I used to think the first time he was physically abusive was the first time he was abusive. But I now realise that I had been scared of him and his reactions many times before that, and that was a huge red flag. — Rachel, 40s, Tasmania He was always wanting to be in control of where I was. He would be turning up at locations like where I was working, or if I was out with a girlfriend. He was always wanting to be with me. At the start you think it's amazing this person is so into you and wanting to spend every moment of the day with you. Really, they were early signs of love bombing, isolation and control. — Charlotte, 50s, Tasmania Source: The University of Melbourne study It's always easier in hindsight with these things, because it's so subtle. It can appear benign. Those early signs can come across as caring gestures, or concern, or even love. There was constant messages and phone calls. I just thought it was over-excitement about the relationship. I thought it would settle down with time. But it became obsessive and escalated to full-on stalking. — Hannah, 50s, Melbourne/Naarm I met him on a night out and the relationship escalated very quickly. It was quicker than I felt comfortable with, but he didn't respond well to me putting the brakes on in any way, and responded by sulking and withdrawing. He told me many lies, which led me to believe that he was a really similar person to me. He mirrored things that I told him about me. It soon became clear that many of these things were gross exaggerations, at the very least. He was extremely jealous of my male friends. If I spoke about them or ex-partners, he would be competitive, often making up things about himself to make himself sound better than them. — Carrie, 40s, Tasmania One time, I noticed that he was not happy that I was having a conversation with a man that was working for us. He fired him the next day. He didn't like it if I was not at home when he came home from work. His demeanour would change dramatically, and it would take days for him to get over it. In social settings, he would always talk over the top of me and shape the conversation around himself. I could feel myself disappearing into the background whenever he was around. It was impossible to have a rational discussion with him about anything to do with our relationship. He was always the victim somehow. He could never bring himself to say sorry, no matter how big or small the issue. He was threatened whenever I had some form of personal success and was totally incapable of acknowledging my efforts or being happy for me. — Susie, 50s, Tasmania He was so attentive. Rushing into saying "I love you". The grand gestures. Every Tuesday he would bring me a gift. He started rewarding me with treats and food. Looking back that was a thing for him to control my weight, to get me fat. My self-confidence plummeted. There was extreme jealousy. He'd make it seem like because he loved me so much, he didn't want me to be around anybody else. — Sarah, 40s, Tasmania There was pressure soon into the relationship for exclusive commitment. Wanting me to move in with him soon after we became a couple. He'd constantly check on me, turning up at my place without prior notice and daily interrogations: where I'd been, who I saw. Couching his behaviours under the guise of being so in love he wanted to spend most of his time with me. His psychological abuse was a form of manipulation where he assigned responsibility on me to make him happy — to dress as he suggested and to converse on topics he was interested in only. — Deborah, 60s, Tasmania We'd like to thank all the victim-survivors who generously shared their experiences with us. Examples provided at the beginning of this article from The University of Melbourne research have been shared with permission from the study's authors.
Daily Telegraph
a day ago
- Daily Telegraph
LTR Pharma completes ED study milestone
Don't miss out on the headlines from Stockhead. Followed categories will be added to My News. LTR Pharma & co-development partner Aptar Pharma complete extractables study on SPONTAN All identified compounds below ICH safety thresholds for nasal spray-mist erectile dysfunction treatment Leachables study initiated to support FDA regulatory submission under real-world storage conditions Special Report: LTR Pharma has completed a key extractables study for its SPONTAN intranasal spray for erectile dysfunction and kicked off a leachables study as part of a regulatory development program. LTR Pharma (ASX:LTP) said the extractables study, conducted under the supervision of co-development partner Aptar Pharma, evaluated the bottle and pump components of SPONTAN's container closure system. The study confirmed that all detected compounds were below ICH safety thresholds – the internationally recognised standards adopted by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and regulatory authorities worldwide for pharmaceutical impurities. LTR Pharma said the identified compounds would be monitored in the ongoing leachables study. FDA requires extractables and leachables (E&L) studies for all pharmaceutical products to ensure packaging materials do not compromise product safety or efficacy. For nasal spray products, these studies must meet specific regulatory thresholds due to direct tissue exposure. Leachables study now underway The leachables study has started under Aptar Pharma's management, evaluating the potential migration of the compounds from packaging into SPONTAN under real-world storage conditions. LTR Pharma said SPONTAN used industry-standard bottle and pump components as used in multiple FDA-approved nasal spray products. The study will run for at least 24 months to support shelf-life requirements. Consistent with FDA practice for nasal sprays, the company can submit its application once sufficient robust data is available, with study completion continuing post-approval as standard. E&L studies form part of LTR Pharma's comprehensive regulatory strategy following its FDA pre-IND meeting, where the FDA confirmed the proposed development pathway. The company said E&L data were required for the chemistry, manufacturing and controls (CMC) section of its planned new drug application (NDA). With extractables results meeting regulatory requirements, the company progresses to the leachables phase for comprehensive regulatory submission data. Watch: LTR's new appointment Progress on SPONTAN and new US-targeted ROXUS LTR Pharma continues to progress SPONTAN through established regulatory pathways while building commercial foundations through its Australian early access programs. It is also progressing its new ED nasal spray called ROXUS, which offers a fast-track pathway to serve patients through the US personalised healthcare sector. As with SPONTAN, ROXUS is based on the common active ingredient vardenafil. It will be delivered via the 503(a)-compounding pharmacy pathway, which exempts drugs from the usual approval, labelling and manufacturing requirements. "The completion of our extractables study and commencement of the leachables phase keep our regulatory program on schedule,' LTR Pharma executive chairman Lee Rodne said. 'Working with Aptar Pharma provides us with their established expertise in nasal spray device development and FDA submissions. 'These studies are necessary steps in our development pathway, and we look forward to progressing through each regulatory milestone." This article was developed in collaboration with LTR Pharma, a Stockhead advertiser at the time of publishing. This article does not constitute financial product advice. You should consider obtaining independent advice before making any financial decisions. Originally published as LTR Pharma completes study milestone for SPONTAN ED treatment
