America burned over $1 billion in defending Israel — for a war it wasn't in. Can it afford the next one?

Indian Express

19 hours ago

The United States may have used up between 15 to 20 per cent of its globally deployed arsenal of advanced THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) interceptors during the 12-day Israel-Iran war, a rate of consumption that experts warn is unsustainable in the event of prolonged or multi-front conflicts.
According to Military Watch Magazine, an estimated 60–80 THAAD interceptors were fired between June 13 – June 24 as part of the US-led defence effort against Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israeli cities and nuclear sites. While only 39 launches were captured on video, wartime censorship likely prevented many more from being filmed. Analysts believe these launches accounted for just over half the total number used.
Each THAAD interceptor costs between $12 million and $15 million, meaning the operation likely cost US taxpayers between $810 million and $1.215 billion. That figure dwarfs the cost of Iran's offensive, underlining the long-standing problem of asymmetric costs in missile defence warfare.
The Pentagon currently fields seven THAAD systems across five air defence regiments, with an eighth set to be operational by the end of 2025. Given that the US produces only 50–60 interceptors annually, the 12-day war wiped out more than a year's worth of production — raising alarm bells in Washington, especially with THAAD batteries also deployed in South Korea, Guam, and Hawaii to deter other adversaries such as North Korea and China.
Military Watch noted that Iran fired its missiles at a 'modest' rate, well below its full capabilities, possibly to avoid escalation or preserve capacity in case of deeper US involvement. Tehran also refrained from deploying missiles with multiple warheads. Despite this, US interceptor stockpiles took a heavy hit, even with significant support from Israel's Arrow, Barak 8, and US Navy Aegis destroyers equipped with SM-3 missiles.
Experts say if Iran had chosen to escalate or sustain its bombardment beyond 12 days, the THAAD battery would likely have been overwhelmed or rendered ineffective, even in a setting as fortified as Israel. That has grave implications for future large-scale wars, particularly in the Indo-Pacific where the US expects to confront far more advanced and numerous missile threats from China or North Korea.
THAAD was first deployed abroad in 2009 to Hawaii, followed by Guam in 2013 and South Korea in 2016. With Russia's fielding of the Oreshnik IRBM and its reported sharing of North Korean-made missiles with Belarus, calls are growing for THAAD to be deployed in Europe as well.