The 3 preseason San Francisco Giants predictions I wish I'd made

New York Times

3 days ago

I once made a prediction that was accurate and amusing enough to be included on my Wikipedia page. Because of this, you might assume that I'm good at predictions. I am not. That was the only good prediction I have ever made. I am better at fixing transmissions than I am at making predictions, and you don't want me within 50 feet of your car.
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It's probably for the best that I don't remember any of the predictions my corporate overlords forced me to make before this season, because I'm sure they're already shot to heck. What I do remember, though, are the educated guesses and half-baked hunches about the Giants that I had before the season. Some of them came close to happening. If I had any courage at all, I would have published them as predictions and ended up looking smart.
I didn't. They're only the preseason predictions I wish I made.
To be fair, I at least hinted at the idea in a predictions article, but that was even more wishy-washy than my normal stuff. These were the actual words that were in my brain all winter: This dude might struggle something fierce. Every time I clicked on his Baseball Savant page, it was like a blinking red siren. He wasn't just making weak contact; he was making some of the weakest contact in the league. He wasn't just swinging and missing; he had some of the worst strikeout and whiff rates in the league.
Then there was his batted-ball profile, which has him as one of the most extreme pull hitters in baseball. It all adds up to the profile of a hitter the league will catch up with. Then you get to the evidence that the league already did catch up to him at the end of his breakout season: His OPS for September of last season was under .700, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio was all cattywampus.
It's a shame, because there's so much already right with him as a player. His speed, instincts, pull-side power and versatility are all helpful to a major-league team right now, which helps explain why Baseball-Reference's WAR still has him as the fourth-most valuable position player on the Giants this season, behind only Matt Chapman, Mike Yastrzemski and Willy Adames. He's still young, and there's still time for him to make the adjustments he needs to.
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It was always unlikely for him to repeat what he did last year, though. It was unlikely for him to come close, even.
That's pretty much what's happened. His OPS vs. lefties is 22 points lower than his OPS against right-handers this year, which is both great and horrible news, but his overall production is roughly the same. His adjusted OPS was 25 percent better than the National League last season, and it's 22 percent better this season. He's still as streaky as hitters get, but he's at least shown that last season's second half was just a slump, not a result of the league solving him.
The caveat to all this is that I did not see the defensive calamity coming. There have been rough defensive patches for Ramos throughout his Giants career, but nothing like the rough defense he's shown all season. Ramos is between Fitzgerald and Christian Koss in WAR this season, according to Baseball-Reference, which gives you an idea of just how much Ramos' defense is hurting him. And I can't disagree with the numbers, either. They match the eyeball test, and the eyeballs hurt.
Still, the offense is a welcome not-surprise. Ramos is a healthy part of a balanced lineup, just like he was last year. Not only is that welcome for this season, but the Giants can start expecting it for future seasons, too.
I'd imagine there's quite the generational split among Giants fans when it comes to expectations for pitching prospects. In one corner, you have the old guard, the ones who spent decades expecting doom. Between the Bob Knepper trade in 1980 and Matt Cain's debut in 2005, there wasn't a more dangerous job on the planet than 'exciting young Giants pitcher.' Every time a pitcher would start to fly, they'd fly too close to the sun on shoulders made out of wax. Can you believe there was a time when the Giants had five starting pitchers in the top-100 prospects, including the best pitching prospect in baseball? Only one of them lived up to expectations, and only after he was traded for A.J. Pierzynski. It was always doom for the young pitchers. Doom, doom, doom.
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And in the other corner, you have newer fans, who watched the Giants thrive beyond their wildest dreams because of young pitching. They understand that pitching is a cruel profession, and they know that success can be fleeting, but they're not terrified of young pitchers in general. Sometimes they work. Look at Logan Webb over there. Came up, got good, stayed good for a long time. What's the big deal? That happens with young pitchers sometimes.
I'll always be the one in the first example, though. It doesn't surprise me when other teams develop pitchers. The Mariners had a couple seasons where they were consistently making homegrown pitchers out of glowing dirt they dug up behind old Boeing test grounds, and that made sense to me. When it comes to the Giants, though, I always hold my breath. Young pitchers, you say? Sounds risky.
There was a point this season where the Giants had too many young pitchers. They sent an incumbent starter to the minors. They had a battle for the one and final spot in the rotation. They had to use starting pitchers as relievers because, well, there were just too many young pitchers.
I was scared for them. 'There's no way it will work,' the oldest, crustiest lobe of my brain croaked. And I nodded in agreement. For these were promising young Giants pitchers we were talking about.
Except this prediction makes it in here because it's both correct and incorrect. Yes, Hayden Birdsong is caught in a developmental maelstrom right now, and Kyle Harrison is currently on the Pawtucket Red Sox, but Landen Roupp has been stellar. It's been enjoyable to watch his changeup develop as the season progresses, and you can see the curveball become even more effective the less he has to rely on it.
Sometimes it's better to be wrong. Maybe there's a way to scoop this lobe of the brain out and replace it with something more optimistic. 'Oops! All Lincecums!' or something like that. I wish I were more wrong in public about the Giants' plan to rely on young pitchers, which I was quietly skeptical about. If the Giants make the postseason this year, young pitching will be a major reason why. Sometimes young pitchers end up helping, and they don't have to stop for a long time.
(Top photo of Tyler Fitzgerald: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)