US-Vietnam Deal Risks China Reprisal, Bloomberg Economics Says
Under the deal, a 20% tariff will be placed on Vietnamese exports to the US, with a 40% levy on any goods deemed to be transshipped — a measure likely directed at China which has used other nations to skirt US import duties.
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17 minutes ago
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US Immigration Crackdown to Intensify With $150 Billion Infusion
(Bloomberg) -- US immigration enforcement is set for the most dramatic expansion in decades after the Republican-controlled Congress approved a budget bill that will fund President Donald Trump's mass deportation plans. NYC Commutes Resume After Midtown Bus Terminal Crash Chaos Struggling Downtowns Are Looking to Lure New Crowds Massachusetts to Follow NYC in Making Landlords Pay Broker Fees Foreign Buyers Swoop on Cape Town Homes, Pricing Out Locals What Gothenburg Got Out of Congestion Pricing The sweeping legislation, which Trump said he wants to sign by Friday, allocates more than $150 billion for the administration's border and immigration crackdown. Most of the money will go to the Department of Homeland Security and its enforcement arms, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement and Customs and Border Protection. Coming on top of the agencies' existing budgets, it's an unprecedented funding surge that will supercharge efforts to build new detention centers, hire thousands of immigration agents and expand border wall construction. The bill also raises costs for those trying to stay in the country legally, increasing fees for work permits, asylum applications and humanitarian protections. The changes are part of a legislative package that also includes cuts to Medicaid and other federal safety-net programs along with tax cuts. 'It's beyond transformational,' said Gil Kerlikowske, head of CBP under President Barack Obama. 'It places them into a whole new era.' Border Wall Revival One of Trump's most iconic and divisive campaign promises — 'Build the Wall' — is now back at the center of US immigration policy. Although much of the roughly 450 miles (725 kilometers) of wall built during his first term replaced existing barriers, Trump is now eyeing fresh construction along vast stretches of the nearly 2,000-mile US-Mexico border. Backed by $46.5 billion in new funding, the administration has already begun fast-tracking wall contracts, including a $70 million award this spring to expand barriers in Texas's Rio Grande Valley, a once-busy corridor that now sees fewer than 45 illegal crossings per day. Another $309 million has been committed to a 27-mile stretch in Arizona's Tucson sector, where arrests have plummeted from daily highs in the thousands to dozens per day, according to CBP figures. Whether that much spending is warranted is up for debate. In June, DHS said arrests reached their lowest level in decades — a trend attributed to a combination of aggressive enforcement under Trump, Biden-era asylum restrictions still in place, and expanded Mexican policing efforts that stop migrants before they reach the US border. Detention Surge The new legislation earmarks $45 billion to expand federal immigration detention, a dramatic boost for ICE, which has struggled to find space for the growing number of people it's being directed to arrest and hold under the Trump administration's deportation strategy. By late June, ICE was holding over 59,000 people in custody, well beyond its funded capacity of about 42,000 beds. This came as the agency, under pressure to meet a quota of at least 3,000 arrests per day, has been conducting raids on workplaces, at courthouses and around migrant gathering points in cities from Los Angeles to New York. To accommodate the overflow, a new Florida state-run facility was opened this month in the remote Everglades, composed primarily of tents and trailers and dubbed 'Alligator Alcatraz' for its swampy location. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem told lawmakers in May that the administration wanted to more than double the number of immigration jail beds nationwide. Meanwhile, oversight of detention facilities is dwindling. Earlier this year, DHS shuttered its internal detention monitoring office. Lawmakers are now weighing whether to permanently eliminate the office's funding — a move that has alarmed civil rights groups. ICE Expansion ICE — the US agency most closely associated with the mechanics of deportation — will also see a $30 billion infusion, three times its annual budget. The money will be used to expand arrest and removal operations, hire more deportation officers and government attorneys, scale up technology and bolster transportation for detainees. The agency has already been relying on personnel from other agencies, including the Internal Revenue Service and National Guard units in LA, to support operations. Now, with tens of billions earmarked for hiring and training, ICE is expected to significantly expand beyond its current roster of about 6,000 agents. The White House says there'll be funding for 10,000 new ICE positions and $10,000 annual bonuses over the next four years. Border Patrol Hiring The bill sets aside another $6.1 billion for Border Patrol and customs officer hiring, aiming to lock in recent gains in border enforcement. The White House says the funding could support 8,000 additional hires across both agencies, along with bonuses. But even with money in hand, the Border Patrol has long struggled to fill vacancies. Extensive background checks and a rigorous training academy have historically slowed recruitment efforts. 'Money doesn't always solve everything,' said Theresa Cardinal Brown, a DHS official during the George W. Bush and Obama administrations. 'There's logistics involved: the processes to recruit, hire, to go through the background checks and clearances and to then go through the academy.' Border State Reimbursements The package includes a $13.5 billion fund to reimburse state and local governments for their border security efforts since 2021. Texas stands to gain the most, with Republican Governor Greg Abbott seeking more than $11 billion to recover the cost of building state-funded border barriers and personnel expenses. Abbott said he spent millions of dollars busing and flying more than 120,000 migrants to US cities like New York and Chicago and as far away as China and Russia. Other states can apply for reimbursement for expenses tied to border operations or policing unauthorized immigrants who have committed crimes. The fund is seen as a victory for border communities that had frequently clashed with the Biden administration over taking enforcement into their own hands. Immigration Fees To help pay for the expanded enforcement regime, Republicans are targeting immigrants themselves. Proposed new and increased fees on applications for legal status, asylum and work permits could raise tens of billions of dollars of additional revenue a year. The bill proposes, among other things, imposing a minimum $100 fee to apply for asylum, $550 for employee authorization applications, $500 for Temporary Protected Status and $1,000 for most humanitarian parole applications, along with a fine of $5,000 for anyone caught crossing the border between ports of entry. Fee waivers for low-income applicants would be eliminated in most cases, a shift that immigrant advocates say could put legal pathways out of financial reach for many. (Updates that House approved budget bill in first paragraph.) SNAP Cuts in Big Tax Bill Will Hit a Lot of Trump Voters Too America's Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried How to Steal a House China's Homegrown Jewelry Superstar Sperm Freezing Is a New Hot Market for Startups ©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Yahoo
32 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump tariffs live updates: Trump announces Vietnam deal, China tensions ease, and July 9 deadline looms
It's crunch time for US trade partners looking to make deals ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline for tariffs to snap back to higher levels. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said around 100 partners would likely see a minimum "reciprocal" rate of 10% come next week, adding that he expects a "flurry" of deals to materialize before the deadline. Here is where things stand with various partners: China: The US has eased export restrictions on China for chip design software and ethane, a sign that trade tensions are calming between the two countries after they agreed in May to a framework to move toward a larger trade deal. Software firms like Synopsys (SNPS) and Cadence (CDNS) said they will now sell their chip design tools to Chinese customers again. The US also removed limits on ethane exports to China that it had set just weeks ago. Vietnam: Trump on Wednesday said he had reached a trade deal with Vietnam, one that will see the country's imports face a 20% tariff — lower than the 46% he had threatened in April. He also said Vietnamese goods would face a higher 40% tariff "on any transshipping" — when goods shipped from Vietnam originate from another country, like China. Many US goods will see no duty upon import to Vietnam. Japan: Trump earlier this week said negotiations with Japan had soured, saying he would force Japan to accept higher tariffs of "30%, 35%, or whatever the number is that we determine." Notably, that proposal is higher than the 24% "Liberation Day" level. "They're very tough. You have to understand, they're very spoiled," he said. European Union: The EU has signaled it is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff on many of its exports but is seeking exemptions for pharmaceuticals, alcohol, semiconductors, and commercial aircraft as part of a trade deal. Bessent said US-EU talks would continue through the weekend. Trump has threatened 50% tariffs on the bloc's imports. Canada: Canada has scrapped its digital services tax that was set to affect large US technology companies. The White House said trade talks between the two countries had resumed after Trump threatened to cut off trade talks. They are aiming for a deal by mid-July. Read more: What Trump's tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet Here are the latest updates as the policy reverberates around the world. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been making the rounds today, talking about the Trump tax bill and tariffs as next week's July 9 deadline looms. Per Reuters, Bessent said around 100 countries are likely to see a "reciprocal" tariff of 10%: Bessent also said Trump would ultimately decide whether to extend that July 9 deadline for countries negotiating "in good faith." Bloomberg News reports Read more here. German car exports to the US fell in April and May as import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration hit German automakers' sales, according to data from the VDA industry association. Reuters reports: Read more here. Luxury watch specialist, Watches of Switzerland warned on Thursday that its profit margin could fall this year as the luxury watch sector adjusts to higher US tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. The South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday that it still remains unclear if trade talks between Seoul and Washington can result in a deal before next week's deadline to avert sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump has his eye on any loopholes that China may use to swerve tariffs. Trump's two-tired trade deal with Vietnam takes aim at practices China has used to avoid US tariffs, such as the widespread shifting of production to Southeast Asian factories and the illegal "origin washing" of exports through their ports. Beijing has responded and said it was 'conducting an assessment' of the US-Vietnam trade deal, adding: 'We firmly oppose any party striking a deal at the expense of China's interests.' 'If such a situation arises, China will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,' the ministry added. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US and India are on the verge of sealing the deal when it comes to reducing tariffs. But there appears to be one sticking point ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline and it centers around dairy and agriculture. Here's an explainer on why farm goods may hold up a trade deal between the two nations. Reuters reports: Read more here. China is growing more worried as President Trump strikes deals with other countries. On Thursday Beijing hit out at the US-Vietnam trade deal, amid concerns that the US is using "Liberation Day" tariff negotiations with countries to curb China's export machine. The deal with Vietnam, which was announced by the US President on Wednesday, lowers tariffs on Hanoi's exports from 46% to 20%, but it retains a 409% levy on t"trans-shipping" of goods, which China believes is aimed at its re-exports to the US. .The FT reports: Read more here. Indonesia plans to sign a $34 billion deal with US businesses next week to increase purchases and help secure a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, its top economic minister said Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. The trade truce between the US and China may be holding for now, but China is becoming wary that it may thaw. Beijing's concerns stem from what may be happening elsewhere and the US's efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethene shipments. China has responded by making concessions over its rare earth export controls. But despite this, China is still on edge. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trade negotiations between the US and India have been moving forward. But unresolved issues over US dairy and agriculture have caused some disagreements between the two sides, according to sources familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethane shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS), and Siemens (SIEGY) said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace, and defense industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said that his administration has struck a preliminary trade agreement with Vietnam a week before the self-imposed deadline of July 9. "I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam. Details to follow!" Trump posted on Truth Social. While we don't yet know the details of the deal, Vietnam had been seeking to secure tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, below Trump's "Liberation Day" rate of 46% for goods from the country, according to a Bloomberg report. The US had been looking to stop the flow of goods from China that had been rerouted through Vietnam to circumvent tariffs. Vietnam had offered to remove all tariffs on US goods and step up trade enforcement, according to people familiar with the talks. When President Trump imposed his 25% tariffs on imported Japanese cars, the expectation had been higher sticker prices for US consumers and a drop in sales. It was expected that the added costs to exporters would be passed on to the consumer. However, the policy has been in place for months and the outcomes has proven far less intense. Bloomberg News reports: Japanese automakers' US sales have shown surprising resilience. Toyota (TM), for example, hit a global sales record in May, with North America sales up more than a tenth. Part of that is thanks to their local US production. Read more here. A key group of US employers would face direct costs of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump's current tariff plans. These costs could lead companies to hike prices, layoff staff, lead to hiring freezes and lower profit margins, according to analysis by the JP Morgan Institute. AP reports: Read more here. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has blasted American cars, saying they are a tough sell in Japan. Ishiba added that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Treasury Secretary Bessent has been making the rounds today, talking about the Trump tax bill and tariffs as next week's July 9 deadline looms. Per Reuters, Bessent said around 100 countries are likely to see a "reciprocal" tariff of 10%: Bessent also said Trump would ultimately decide whether to extend that July 9 deadline for countries negotiating "in good faith." Bloomberg News reports Read more here. German car exports to the US fell in April and May as import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration hit German automakers' sales, according to data from the VDA industry association. Reuters reports: Read more here. Luxury watch specialist, Watches of Switzerland warned on Thursday that its profit margin could fall this year as the luxury watch sector adjusts to higher US tariffs. Reuters reports: Read more here. The South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said on Thursday that it still remains unclear if trade talks between Seoul and Washington can result in a deal before next week's deadline to avert sweeping tariffs from President Donald Trump. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. President Trump has his eye on any loopholes that China may use to swerve tariffs. Trump's two-tired trade deal with Vietnam takes aim at practices China has used to avoid US tariffs, such as the widespread shifting of production to Southeast Asian factories and the illegal "origin washing" of exports through their ports. Beijing has responded and said it was 'conducting an assessment' of the US-Vietnam trade deal, adding: 'We firmly oppose any party striking a deal at the expense of China's interests.' 'If such a situation arises, China will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests,' the ministry added. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. The US and India are on the verge of sealing the deal when it comes to reducing tariffs. But there appears to be one sticking point ahead of President Trump's July 9 deadline and it centers around dairy and agriculture. Here's an explainer on why farm goods may hold up a trade deal between the two nations. Reuters reports: Read more here. China is growing more worried as President Trump strikes deals with other countries. On Thursday Beijing hit out at the US-Vietnam trade deal, amid concerns that the US is using "Liberation Day" tariff negotiations with countries to curb China's export machine. The deal with Vietnam, which was announced by the US President on Wednesday, lowers tariffs on Hanoi's exports from 46% to 20%, but it retains a 409% levy on t"trans-shipping" of goods, which China believes is aimed at its re-exports to the US. .The FT reports: Read more here. Indonesia plans to sign a $34 billion deal with US businesses next week to increase purchases and help secure a trade agreement before the July 9 deadline, its top economic minister said Thursday. Reuters reports: Read more here. The trade truce between the US and China may be holding for now, but China is becoming wary that it may thaw. Beijing's concerns stem from what may be happening elsewhere and the US's efforts to forge deals that could isolate Chinese firms from global supply chains. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethene shipments. China has responded by making concessions over its rare earth export controls. But despite this, China is still on edge. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Trade negotiations between the US and India have been moving forward. But unresolved issues over US dairy and agriculture have caused some disagreements between the two sides, according to sources familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. The US has removed export restrictions on chip design software and ethane shipments to China, easing trade tensions between the two countries. China recently made concessions over its rare earth export controls. Software companies Synopsys (SNPS), Cadence (CDNS), and Siemens (SIEGY) said they will now restore access for their Chinese customers. These firms develop important electronic design automation tools used in chipmaking. The US also lifted licensing rules for ethane producers. Earlier restrictions were part of Trump's response to China blocking rare earth exports, which had disrupted supply chains for cars, aerospace, and defense industries. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump had targeted Vietnam with some of the highest tariffs of any country on his April "Liberation Day." That's at least partly because he and top advisers have made Vietnam an example of a country that is allegedly "ripping off" the US. Vietnam has become the US's 10th-largest trade partner, according to US Census data. And it is the seventh-largest source of imports, sending goods worth over $130 billion. It contains factories for some of the biggest US-based apparel makers, including Nike (NKE) and Lululemon (LULU). Vietnam became a destination for companies looking to diversify manufacturing as US-China tensions escalated over the past decade. Vietnam's trade surplus with the US ballooned to over $123 billion last year. This year's US trade deficit with Vietnam stood over $50 billion through just April as companies raced to move more operations out of China. President Trump followed up his previous announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam with some additional details on social media. "It is my Great Honor to announce that I have just made a Trade Deal with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam after speaking with To Lam, the Highly Respected General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam," Trump posted on Truth Social. Trump wrote that the two sides agreed to a 20% tariff rate on all goods sent from Vietnam to the US and a 40% tariff rate on transshipment — essentially, when goods from China or other countries are routed through Vietnam. Tariffs on goods from the country were previously set to return to 46% on July 9. Vietnam also lowered tariffs on US goods to zero, Trump said, and is lowering trade barriers. The president suggested US automakers could introduce more SUVs to the Southeast Asian country. "In return, Vietnam will do something that they have never done before, give the United States of America TOTAL ACCESS to their Markets for Trade," Trump wrote. "In other words, they will 'OPEN THEIR MARKET TO THE UNITED STATES,' meaning that, we will be able to sell our product into Vietnam at ZERO Tariff." The US and Vietnam are said to be very close to a establishing a trade framework that will see goods given a scaled range of tariffs depending on the percentage of foreign content, according to people familiar with the talks. Reuters reports: Read more here. Tariffs have hit electric vehicle maker, Rivian (RIVN) who reported a sharp fall in second-quarter deliveries on Wednesday as demand for its EVs took a hit from competition and tariff-driven economic uncertainty. Reuters reports: Read more here. President Trump said that his administration has struck a preliminary trade agreement with Vietnam a week before the self-imposed deadline of July 9. "I just made a Trade Deal with Vietnam. Details to follow!" Trump posted on Truth Social. While we don't yet know the details of the deal, Vietnam had been seeking to secure tariffs in the range of 20% to 25%, below Trump's "Liberation Day" rate of 46% for goods from the country, according to a Bloomberg report. The US had been looking to stop the flow of goods from China that had been rerouted through Vietnam to circumvent tariffs. Vietnam had offered to remove all tariffs on US goods and step up trade enforcement, according to people familiar with the talks. When President Trump imposed his 25% tariffs on imported Japanese cars, the expectation had been higher sticker prices for US consumers and a drop in sales. It was expected that the added costs to exporters would be passed on to the consumer. However, the policy has been in place for months and the outcomes has proven far less intense. Bloomberg News reports: Japanese automakers' US sales have shown surprising resilience. Toyota (TM), for example, hit a global sales record in May, with North America sales up more than a tenth. Part of that is thanks to their local US production. Read more here. A key group of US employers would face direct costs of $82.3 billion from President Donald Trump's current tariff plans. These costs could lead companies to hike prices, layoff staff, lead to hiring freezes and lower profit margins, according to analysis by the JP Morgan Institute. AP reports: Read more here. Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has blasted American cars, saying they are a tough sell in Japan. Ishiba added that his government needs to discuss with the US how to boost car imports from America. Bloomberg News reports: Read more here. Inicia sesión para acceder a tu portafolio
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
US-Vietnam Trade Deal for 20 Percent Tariff Raises Some Big Questions
The only certainty for the footwear industry is that price inflation for shoes is still on the horizon, even with a new trade deal supposedly unfolding between the U.S. and Vietnam. The deal, once finalized, is critical for footwear as Vietnam accounts for about 25 percent of shoe manufacturing — and the country has become the go-to place for sneaker production. More from WWD Shoe Stocks Mixed as US-Vietnam Trade Deal Framework Revealed Tariff Fears Prompted Some Shoe Firms To Get Out of China Fast: But Did They Move Too Quickly? Hill House Home, ViBi Venezia Step Into Summer With Floral Collab U.S. President Donald Trump revealed his latest trade move on Truth Social Wednesday, one week ahead of the July 9 deadline when the temporary pause on reciprocal rates are supposed to end. 'Vietnam will pay the United States a 20 percent tariff on any and all goods sent into our territory, and a 40 percent tariff on a Transshipping,' he said, adding that Vietnam will also give the U.S. 'total access' to their markets for trade. After pointing out that the access is something Vietnam has never done before, Trump also said the U.S. will be able to sell American product 'into Vietnam at zero tariff.' The transshipping component is aimed at barring Chinese manufacturers from circumventing China tariffs by shipping first to Vietnam before it heading to its final U.S. destination. 'Vietnam is essential to the U.S. footwear supply chain, especially for athletic shoes. In 2024, we imported 274 million pairs from Vietnam, accounting for over half of all athletic footwear imports by volume and value,' Matt Priest, president and CEO of the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA), said in a statement. 'With $10.6 billion in shipments last year, Vietnam is on pace to become our largest supplier in 2025. Disrupting that pipeline with additional tariffs would hit American consumers and our industry hard.' Priest has repeatedly called for the Trump administration to acknowledge the steep footwear duties already in place. He noted that many shoes, especially popular athletic shoes, already carry a 20 percent tariff, and that adding new tariffs on top of that is 'bad economics.' In a telephone interview, Priest said that 'some of our own sources are saying that not everything's been decided,' and that discussions are continuing to finalize the terms. He said that what the industry needs is certainty, and that's what they don't have yet since there's still a lot of unknowns. 'Will we get credit for what we already paid? We already paid 20 percent for sneakers out of Vietnam, so do we get credit for that or will this be on top of what we already pay? We're still trying to figure all that out,' Priest said. As for the transshipping component, Priest said what that might mean is also unclear. One thing is clear, however, and that's that shoe prices are going higher. According to Priest, duties on kids shoes in April alone were up nearly 300 percent year-over-year, and FDRA's chief economist Gary Raines has already noted evidence 'upstream in the supply chain of surging average duties per pair on footwear imports' that is expected to push the average landed cost of footwear imports higher, which in turn will pressure retail footwear prices to climb later this year. BTIG analyst Janine Stichter wrote in a note on Tuesday that while there have been some selective price increases already, most of the adjustments upwards won't occur until this month. And even with temporary reductions in tariffs — 30 percent for China through Aug. 12 and 10 percent for all other countries through July 9 — to allow for negotiations on new trade deals, Stichter said 'pricing is still likely a necessary lever to offset' some of those cost increases. And on Wednesday, she wrote that while the stated 20 percent tariff on Vietnam is higher than the temporary 10 percent pause rate, it is still 'much less onerous than the initially proposed 46 percent reciprocal rate.' And while the rate adds incremental margin pressure for those with Vietnam exposure, Stichter said the 20 percent tariff 'should be mitigated over time for most.' The American Apparel and Footwear Association's president and CEO Steve Lamar said the organization is 'pleased that further progress' is being made on reciprocal trade deals. 'With respect to Vietnam — the second largest supplier for footwear, apparel, and accessories sold into the U.S. market — we look forward to learning the details related to today's news so that we, together with our members, can evaluate how well it will provide relief and certainty,' Lamar said. 'Is vital that the final terms of this deal, and any future deals, enable U.S. brands and retailers, and our 3.6 million American workers, to continue to be able to supply American consumers with affordable, responsibly made, ethically sourced, and authentic fashion.' Rick Helfenbein, an independent consultant and former AAFA chairman, president and CEO, said the 20 percent tariff increase remains a high number for apparel and footwear importers, but still 26 percent lower than where they started on April 2 when reciprocal tariffs were first announced by Trump. 'Expect that USA importers and Vietnamese manufacturers might find a way to split the difference — resulting in some price inflation, but avoiding a serious retail disaster — especially for the footwear industry,' he concluded. Meanwhile, the U.S. is said to be working on tariff talks with China now that a U.S.-China rare earth minerals trade deal has deescalated tensions between the two countries. Trump at one point raised tariffs to 145 percent for China imports to the U.S., then lowered that to 55 percent, including previous tariffs stacked on top of the new rate. The rate was lowered temporarily in May to 30 percent so trade-deal talks can take place prior to Aug. 12. With China and Vietnam having preliminary agreement status, there has been just one other trade deal finalized and that's with the U.K. A fact sheet from the Holland & Knight law firm provided a status update for bilateral trade deal talks. There are 14 countries where negotiations remain ongoing: India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, European Union, Canada, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, Pakistan and Switzerland. Argentina is also on the list, but there's been no update since March 4, 2025. The law firm noted that on Monday, Trump said that a 'very big' deal with India, a footwear production hub, is likely to be finalized soon. Talks with Mexico are centered on a potential quota system to reduce the 50 percent tariffs on steel imports, while Cambodia has submitted a detailed proposal ahead of the July 9 deadline and the two countries are 'now engaged in a multi-round negotiation process.' Also as of Monday, the law firm said Indonesia has eased licensing requirements on import rules and offered to increase U.S. access to critical minerals as part of its effort to advance the talks that are in progress. With July 9 right around the corner, Trump's next move is anyone's guess. Best of WWD All the Retailers That Nike Left and Then Went Back Mikey Madison's Elegant Red Carpet Shoe Style [PHOTOS] Julia Fox's Sleekest and Boldest Shoe Looks Over the Years [Photos] Error while retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data Error while retrieving data
