Is Atlantic hurricane season behind schedule? Here's what's really going on
Andrea kicked off the season on June 24, with Barry following on June 29, both lasting less than a day. The National Hurricane Center has flagged an area for possible development over Florida, but regardless of whether this system is named, it will be a prolific rainmaker for the peninsula.
The Eastern Pacific, on the other hand, has been bubbling. Hurricane Flossie — the basin's sixth named storm this season — is expected to sideswipe southwest Mexico this week with flood and mudslide potential.
There's a balancing act at play when tropical systems develop. While ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are warm enough to fuel hurricanes, disruptive winds are quickly tearing apart the seedling storms. Saharan dust plumes are also inhibiting hurricane formation by wrapping dry air into storms. Weather models, which take into account several factors, give no solid indications that well-organized, long-lasting storms could develop through mid-July.
In short: yes. July tends to be more of a waiting month during hurricane season. On average, only one named storm forms in July, and this year may feel especially slow because the storms that have been named were very short-lived. Both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins should be relatively quiet well into July, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
But storms could still spin to life this month, and if any do, they have potential to be particularly dangerous. July storms in the Atlantic tend to develop in the shallow Caribbean or Gulf waters, which are warmer this time of year than other, deeper parts of the ocean.
This can fuel rapid intensification and quick landfall, amping up the threat due to short warning lead times. Human-caused climate change is causing hurricanes to produce heavier rainfall and intensify more rapidly than in previous decades.
As we move into August, attention shifts to what forecasters call the 'main development region' — a vast swath of ocean from the west coast of Africa across the central tropical Atlantic. That area usually spawns late-season storms, and it's where some of the strongest hurricanes originate.
Atlantic hurricane season peaks in mid-September. This season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 of which will become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 of these could reach major hurricane intensity of Category 3 or stronger. The agency said they are 70% confident in this particular outlook.
Forecasters are used to dealing with uncertainty, but a new type of unpredictability is brewing this season.
A crucial source of satellite data that hurricane forecasters use monitor changes in storm intensity is expected to be shut down at the end of July, reportedly due to cybersecurity concerns. NOAA was blindsided by this announcement, CNN reported, though the agency has publicly maintained there are many other data sources that will allow for accurate forecasts this season.
The timing raises concerns, as the most active part of hurricane season takes place after July. As hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted on social media, 'The whole thing raises more questions than it answers. The satellites work. Why not keep the data flowing to scientists who use it to forecast the deadliest storms on earth?'
This blow is dealt just as forecasters have also lost access to the fleet of drone boats that provided continuous, direct observations from below storms, and in the wake of staffing cuts throughout the agency.
In 2025, when meteorologists know more about hurricane forecasting than ever before, forecasters may be heading into the most dangerous hurricane months with a critical blind spot.
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American Press
an hour ago
- American Press
Hurricane Katrina's wounds reopened in 'Race Against Time'
On Aug. 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina — one of the deadliest and most devastating natural disasters in U.S. history — roared onto Louisiana's southeastern coastline with catastrophic power, driving a massive storm surge toward the city of New Orleans. With the 20th anniversary approaching, the five-part documentary series 'Hurricane Katrina: Race Against Time' looks back at the heroes — and villains — who lived through the flooding nightmares, excessive heat and food shortages following the storm and the systemic failure and enduring consequences of decisions made before, during and after the levees broke. The series premieres Sunday on National Geographic and is available for streaming Monday on Disney+ and Hulu. Among those featured in the series is Ivor van Heerdan, who in 2004 as the deputy director of the Louisiana State University Hurricane Center predicted Hurricane Katrina's devastating effects only to have been met with deaf ears. 'The extent of the suffering and the magnitude of the ineptness by the federal government and the ability of people to believe stupid ideas like it's a Civil War really comes out very strongly (in the series),' Van Heerdan told the American Press via Zoom. '(The filmmakers) did a masterful job in not following the normal format, which is the storm came, the levees failed, why did the levees fail, what was the consequence, how are we going to fix it. They really took a very important part of it — which was what happened to the people — and I think they did an amazing job. It certainly brought tears to my eyes.' Van Heerdan — who was on the ground in New Orleans when the levees broke — has images from the aftermath forever burned in his memory. 'It's sometimes very tough because I saw a lot of things that really still stick in my head — especially the children that drowned because I had my own young daughter at the time,' he said. 'I was coming home to her, but these kids weren't going home to anyone.' Van Heerdan said in 1992 Hurricane Andrew, a Category 5 storm, flattened everything in its wake in Miami. The storm was the inspiration for his research into what would happen to New Orleans if the same type of storm were to hit that area. 'It looked like an atomic bomb had gone off and that same storm then made landfall in Louisiana on the Atchafalaya Basin, which is where we have our healthiest wetlands. It lost a lot of its steam and energy between the coast and New Orleans city. I realized then that if Andrew had taken just a few degrees different course it would have been another Hurricane Betsy and since Hurricane Betsy in 1965, we've lost a huge amount of our coastal wetlands so there would be nothing to slow it down.' In 1994, then-Gov. Edwin Edwards appointed Van Heerdan assistant secretary of the Department of Natural Resources. Part of his job was to bring in new science and ideas to the program. 'I was then able to articulate to legislators and other people in Washington and I said, 'It's coming and we're going to have a major flood.' There were no computer models; in fact we funded the first computer model efforts in Louisiana. That little quiet voice beckoned me in '92 and my focus became to try and get a research team and get research money to really look at coastal Louisiana.' By 1998, LSU had allowed his team to establish the Hurricane Center on campus and in 2001 he received a $6.3 million grant from the Louisiana Board of Higher Education to create the Hurricane Public Health Center to develop storm surge models. Van Heerden brought in medical doctors, epidemiologists, veterinarians and wind experts. He also got a $11 million super computer from then-Gov. Mike Foster. 'There's a side of the dynamics of understanding the winds and the waves and especially the storm surge and how they move through the areas. In Louisiana, we have LiDAR data (short for Light Detection and Ranging data) and very accurate digital elevation data. We got the storm surge models and the next thing we needed to do was a huge public opinion survey. What did the people of New Orleans think? What did they know? That's how we found out 120,000 people didn't have motor vehicles.' He said the survey also led to the realization that the five major parishes in southeastern Louisiana had their own databases and maps but nothing was linked or shareable with the others. His team worked with the Louisiana Geological Survey and others to create a GIS (geographic information system) database, which 'proved exceptionally useful in Katrina because we knew where the schools were in relation to gas stations, etc., etc.' Access to the database was given to the U.S. Department of Health and Hospitals and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. His team also conducted studies on what could be in the water around New Orleans and pathogens that may be present. 'All of this culminated a year before Hurricane Katrina in the Hurricane Pam exercises,' he said. The 300-plus workshop participants of the Pam exercises in July 2004 were provided with a catastrophic hurricane scenario, a set of consequences that would result from that scenario and assumptions designed to stress the emergency management system and force thinking on critical planning topics. 'We really hoped that the Hurricane Pam exercises — modeled after Hurricane Betsy and which featured the entire city flooded — would really wake up everybody. Quit honestly, we were laughed at a few times,' Van Heerdan said. 'I realized very early that we are going to have a lot of evacuees, eternally displaced people, and I and one of my colleagues went to the United Kingdom for 10 days and we did a course in how do you deal with refugees, evacuees and eternally displaced people; how do you establish a camp; how much acreage would you need; what would you need to do. We came back with these ideas and tried to articulate them and during the Hurricane Pam exercise I went to one of the ladies from FEMA and said, 'You need to start thinking about tents. There's going to be a million evacuees. What are you going to do with them?' and she turned around and said to me, 'Americans don't stay in tents.' But the ball went around and after (Katrina) was over they were asked during interviews why there were no tents and they stammered their way through it.' Van Heerdan said before London hosted the 2012 Summer Olympics, officials came to him and asked advice based on the aftermath of what they saw during Katrina. 'We discussed all these things and so they prepositioned tents all over places outside of London in case something happened,' he said. 'London could be flooded, as well. It's got levees and big floodgates.' Van Heerdan said he places a lot of blame for what happened after Katrina on then-New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin. 'We had spoken to him about the buses. The plan was called Operation Brother and they would send the buses and church groups would help load the people and get them out. Over a few dollars, they blew it,' he said. 'And instead of issuing an evacuation early they held it. If people had known earlier they might have been able to go get gas, do something, get out. The safest thing was to get out.' Van Heerdan said at the time, the devastation was linked to 'an act of God.' That's not true, he said, because this disaster was man-made. 'The levees weren't even complete,' he said. 'In order to get to know New Orleans I used to go down in my Xterra and drive everywhere and look at the levees. Every single levee I drove as close to it as I could look. I saw levees with big bows in them and sinking under their own weight, some where leaning over a little bit, some had big cracks and two-by-fours were in the cracks. Also, entire sections were missing.' Van Heerdan said though the rebuild of the levees has been 'robust,' climate change wasn't factored into the design. 'They really need to start thinking about raising the levees and in some places, raising houses and in some places buying people out,' he said. 'The risk of this happening again is very high. Our models show that next time, the storm surge will be nine to 11 feet higher than it was for Katrina.'
CBS News
3 hours ago
- CBS News
Periods of storms expected this weekend throughout the Pittsburgh area
It's going to be a hot and humid weekend with periods of storms expected to move through the Pittsburgh area. First Alert: None at the moment WEATHER LINKS: Current Conditions | School Closings & Delays | Submit Your Weather Photos Temperatures once again have struggled to drop below 70 degrees in Pittsburgh early Saturday morning as we are in the midst of an unseasonably warm and very humid air mass. Presently, we are at 18 days this year with a low temperature of 70 degrees or higher, and there is a good chance we could be in second place for the greatest number of 70-degree warm mornings on record at Pittsburgh International Airport by the middle of next week. Our large scale weather pattern this weekend will be comprised of continuous heat and humidity accompanied by periods of storms. A frontal boundary has stalled out across our area and will likely meander between the I-70 to I-80 corridors with strong and deep moisture convergence near the boundary. Several impulses aloft in the atmosphere will be moving atop this boundary bringing periods of storms as they pass through. The first of which will move across our area between sunrise and noon today. There will likely be a break in the thunderstorm activity by early to mid afternoon before the next disturbance moves in with increasing shower and storm chances this evening. Temperatures will rise from the lower reach the mid 80s for most by early afternoon. Storms may produce microbursts with wind gusts peaking around 40-60 mph and isolated instances of pea to dime sized hail. Heavy rai and flash flooding will also be a threat with isolated amounts of 2-3" in areas that see repeated storms, but a majority of folks will see around 0.5". Additional showers and storms are likely overnight as waves of energy pass through. The overall coverage will decrease some with areas mainly north and east of Pittsburgh being favored hotspots for storms. Temperatures will be very warm as well as lows struggle to drop below the low-mid 70s for most. Sunday morning will begin with mostly cloudy skies and a few isolated showers, but it is likely that storm chances will ramp up pretty early in the day—likely before noon as the ground temperature needed to initiate storms will only be in the upper 70s to low 80s. Storm coverage will start to decrease and shift south of Pittsburgh by early evening with clearing skies and areas of fog by Monday morning. Next week, a series of disturbances rotating around the heat dome parked to our southwest will move our way bringing isolated periodic storm chances. Timing is still fluid with this activity but keep an eye out Monday evening through Tuesday morning. A stronger cold front is expected to arrive around July 30-31 which will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures accompanied by drier air to our region.
Washington Post
5 hours ago
- Washington Post
CWG Live updates: Heat persists through the weekend into next week
Welcome to updated around-the-clock by Capital Weather Gang meteorologists. Happening now: Not as hot as Friday but still hot enough. Storms could be more widespread than Friday. Highs in the 90s. What's next? More 90s through midweek. After temperatures tick down slightly this weekend, they're back up through Wednesday. Occasional storms, too. Today's daily digit — 3/10: Down a few degrees from Friday, plus it's the weekend. | 🤚 Your call? The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale. Forecast in detail Today (Saturday): Partial sunshine and not quite as hot. Another shot at showers and storms pops up late day, mainly after 3 p.m. Any storms could produce heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts. Highs near 90 north to the mid-90s in the city. Confidence: Medium-High Tonight: Showers or storms could be with us through about 9 p.m. Temperatures are again slow to drop through the night. Lows about 72 to 78. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow (Sunday): Another hot and sultry one. Perhaps a bit cloudier than today. Highs are similar, maybe a degree or lower, with largely near 90 to the low 90s. Late-day showers or storms are again a risk. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow night: Showers and storms are possible through about midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy. Across the 70s again for lows. Confidence: Medium-High A look ahead Partly to mostly sunny for Monday. It should end up around 90 north to the mid-90s south. Confidence: Medium Back to the mid- and upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and storms could pop up in the late-day heat either day, with the better odds probably Wednesday as a front approaches. Good news: It should head back to the 80s by Thursday. Confidence: Medium Today's daily digit — 3/10: Down a few degrees from Friday, plus it's the weekend. | 🤚 Your call? The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale. Forecast in detail Today (Saturday): Partial sunshine and not quite as hot. Another shot at showers and storms pops up late day, mainly after 3 p.m. Any storms could produce heavy rain and isolated damaging wind gusts. Highs near 90 north to the mid-90s in the city. Confidence: Medium-High Tonight: Showers or storms could be with us through about 9 p.m. Temperatures are again slow to drop through the night. Lows about 72 to 78. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow (Sunday): Another hot and sultry one. Perhaps a bit cloudier than today. Highs are similar, maybe a degree or lower, with largely near 90 to the low 90s. Late-day showers or storms are again a risk. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow night: Showers and storms are possible through about midnight. Otherwise, partly cloudy. Across the 70s again for lows. Confidence: Medium-High A look ahead Partly to mostly sunny for Monday. It should end up around 90 north to the mid-90s south. Confidence: Medium Back to the mid- and upper 90s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers and storms could pop up in the late-day heat either day, with the better odds probably Wednesday as a front approaches. Good news: It should head back to the 80s by Thursday. Confidence: Medium
