Monsoonal storms helping Utah firefighters, but dry conditions in the forecast
Monsoonal storms returned to the state over the last few days, producing isolated showers that have conveniently parked over some of the firefighting operations. About 0.72 inches of rain fell over the Forsyth Fire in northern Washington County on Thursday, while 0.20 inches of rain fell on Monroe Mountain on Wednesday, followed by 0.25 to 0.63 inches of rain in the Fish Lake and Cove Fort areas, all close to the Monroe Canyon Fire.
That's helped slow down fire activity, giving firefighters an upper hand after weeks of hot, dry and windy conditions.
Crews began establishing direct fire lines in parts of the Monroe Canyon Fire in recent days, aided by 'cooler, wetter weather conditions,' according to the Great Basin Complex Incident Management Team overseeing operations. While the fire remained 0% contained on Friday, its size remained at 8,646 acres, similar to what was reported on Wednesday.
Forsyth Fire growth was 'minimal' on Thursday because of the thunderstorm, federal firefighters added in an update of the fire. It is now 84% contained after burning 15,662 acres.
Cloud cover and cooler temperatures also helped firefighters make 'good progress' on the Deer Creek Fire burning in San Juan County and southwest Colorado. It has burned 15,819 acres, but is now 11% contained.
'We are fortunate that the monsoonal moisture did hit our larger fires, and is helping us out,' Kelly Wickens, public information officer for the Utah Division of Forestry, Fire and State Lands, told KSL.com on Friday.
In addition to rain, Wickens points out that monsoons provide cooler weather that helps 'moderate' fire behavior. That gives firefighters a better chance to increase fire suppression efforts and carry out activities, such as digging containment lines to control the fire's growth. All of these can move faster because the fire isn't spreading as quickly.
Monsoonal moisture to linger
More isolated showers are expected on Friday across the state as a high-pressure system over the Texas panhandle and a low-pressure system off the Pacific Coast near the California-Mexico border help pump oceanic moisture into the Southwest, including Utah, said KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson. Storms will likely start in the mountains before moving into the valleys, especially by Friday afternoon.
Clouds over the Wasatch Front Friday morning could lower the potential of storms bubbling up in the area, he said. Johnson said more scattered showers are possible Saturday and Sunday, especially in southern Utah. It's unclear how productive any of the storms will be because it depends on how much moisture remains in the atmosphere and where a storm sets up, which is one of the challenges of forecasting monsoons.
'It just depends. It's hard for models to resolve exactly where these storms might land,' Johnson said, adding that Thursday's totals provide an example of how productive the storms can be.
Monsoons can pose some problems, too. A flash flood warning was issued in the Pine Valley area on Thursday over potential debris flows from the fire's burn scar. Flash flooding is possible again in slot canyons, dry washes and recent burn scars over the next few days, the National Weather Service advises. Storms may also produce lightning that can start new fires.
Drier conditions on deck
The additional moisture could be short-lived, though. Hot and dry conditions are forecast to return to the state by early next week. Long-range models indicate that monsoonal moisture could be 'spotty' through the rest of July, state officials noted earlier this week.
That's why firefighters are racing to take advantage of monsoon benefits while they still can.
'It can definitely heat back up, and we'll be right in the same situation that we were before the monsoonal moisture,' Wickens said.
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