Germany needs 500,000 immigrants yearly, but 43% may not stay for long

Business Standard

18-06-2025

Germany needs skilled immigrants, but are they willing to stay? A new study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has found that while many migrants plan to remain, a large number are either uncertain or considering leaving — raising fresh questions about Germany's long-term retention strategy.
The survey, conducted between December 2024 and April 2025, covered 50,000 foreign-born individuals aged 18 to 65. It excluded asylum seekers without recognised residence status.
According to the IAB:
• 12 per cent, roughly 1.2 million, see their stay as temporary
• 30 per cent, or nearly 3 million people, are undecided
Around 2.6 million immigrants said they had considered leaving Germany in the past year. Of them, 300,000 already have concrete emigration plans. These are split evenly between return migration and onward migration.
'Twenty-six per cent, or around 2.6 million people, say that they actually considered leaving Germany last year, i.e., they thought about leaving the country,' said Yuliya Kosyakova, head of migration and labour market research at the IAB. 'Around 3%, or 300,000 people, already have concrete plans to leave.'
Who wants to leave — and where to?
Among those planning to leave:
• About half want to return to their home country, with Poland and Romania topping the list
• The rest are looking to move elsewhere, with Switzerland, the United States, and Spain among the preferred destinations
'A key finding of our survey is that it is precisely those who moved to Germany to work or study, who are better educated or more economically successful and who have a better command of the German language, who are more likely than average to consider leaving or express concrete plans to emigrate,' said IAB researcher Katia Gallegos Torres.
This includes immigrants with postgraduate degrees and higher incomes. In sectors like IT, finance, and business services, up to 39 per cent of those surveyed are contemplating emigration.
'There are also strong emigration trends in healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics,' said Gallegos Torres. 'In summary, these are precisely the people that Germany urgently needs to secure its skilled labour force.'
Why immigrants want to leave
The reasons cited by those planning to leave varied:
• Family ties were the main reason for return migration
• Better pay and professional opportunities drove onward migration
• Dissatisfaction with bureaucracy, tax burdens, and political climate played a key role
"Almost two-thirds of immigrants report perceived discrimination, for example at work, on the housing market, in public spaces or in contact with the police," said Gallegos Torres. "A third of immigrants also feel either not at all or only slightly welcome. These are factors that significantly increase the tendency to emigrate."
A growing political chill
Kosyakova noted that Germany's political atmosphere may be influencing these decisions. 'In 2024, the debate was very much dominated by the issue of migration, and social acceptance was not particularly high,' she said.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its anti-immigration stance, emerged as the second-largest party in February's federal election. The CDU, which won the election, immediately rolled back plans to ease citizenship for well-integrated migrants and expanded border controls in its first coalition steps with the SPD.
'These big debates about migration and migration policy have a negative impact on people, on the feeling of welcome, on experiences of discrimination,' said Kosyakova. 'These are reasons why people report thinking more often about emigrating or actually planning to leave Germany.'
Germany's demographic challenge
The number of job vacancies remains high. At the end of 2024, German companies had 1.4 million unfilled positions. Shortages span from healthcare and IT to education, construction, and public transport. One in five nurses in Germany is now an immigrant. In 2024, foreigners made up just over 16 per cent of the total workforce, more than double the proportion in 2010.
Dr Philipp Ackermann, Germany's ambassador to India, has been vocal about the need for more workers.
'We are really looking for talent. We are looking for the smartest, the brightest ones—the ones who maybe had an idea to go elsewhere. There is first-class education in Germany, especially in STEM, and most of it is in English,' said Ackermann earlier this month.
In May 2025, Ackermann put the figure at 500,000 skilled workers needed annually. 'We need bakers, butchers, plumbers—people across the skills spectrum,' he said.
What could help people stay?
The IAB suggests that practical reforms could make a difference:
• Reducing administrative hurdles
• Streamlining recognition of foreign qualifications
• Digitalising bureaucratic processes
• Offering tax breaks to skilled workers
The researchers also point to the need for broader social acceptance, beyond policy tweaks. Meanwhile, the CDU has proposed requiring foreign medical students to work in Germany for at least five years after graduation — or repay their tuition costs.
'Those who do not want to do so must repay the costs of this first-class education,' said Sepp Müller, deputy chairman of the CDU parliamentary group. The proposal has been backed by the CDU-led Health Ministry. 'We must attract young doctors to work in Germany instead of watching them leave,' said state secretary Tino Sorge.
Who took part in the survey?
The study covered immigrants from 188 countries. Seventy per cent of the respondents came from 26 countries, with the following groups most represented:
Ukraine: 10.5 per cent individuals
Turkey: 6.1 per cent individuals
India: 4.4 per cent individuals
United States: 4.3 per cent individuals
Germany's challenge now lies not just in attracting migrants — but in persuading them that it's worth staying.