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Business Standard
18-06-2025
- Business
- Business Standard
Germany needs 500,000 immigrants yearly, but 43% may not stay for long
Germany needs skilled immigrants, but are they willing to stay? A new study by the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) has found that while many migrants plan to remain, a large number are either uncertain or considering leaving — raising fresh questions about Germany's long-term retention strategy. The survey, conducted between December 2024 and April 2025, covered 50,000 foreign-born individuals aged 18 to 65. It excluded asylum seekers without recognised residence status. According to the IAB: • 12 per cent, roughly 1.2 million, see their stay as temporary • 30 per cent, or nearly 3 million people, are undecided Around 2.6 million immigrants said they had considered leaving Germany in the past year. Of them, 300,000 already have concrete emigration plans. These are split evenly between return migration and onward migration. 'Twenty-six per cent, or around 2.6 million people, say that they actually considered leaving Germany last year, i.e., they thought about leaving the country,' said Yuliya Kosyakova, head of migration and labour market research at the IAB. 'Around 3%, or 300,000 people, already have concrete plans to leave.' Who wants to leave — and where to? Among those planning to leave: • About half want to return to their home country, with Poland and Romania topping the list • The rest are looking to move elsewhere, with Switzerland, the United States, and Spain among the preferred destinations 'A key finding of our survey is that it is precisely those who moved to Germany to work or study, who are better educated or more economically successful and who have a better command of the German language, who are more likely than average to consider leaving or express concrete plans to emigrate,' said IAB researcher Katia Gallegos Torres. This includes immigrants with postgraduate degrees and higher incomes. In sectors like IT, finance, and business services, up to 39 per cent of those surveyed are contemplating emigration. 'There are also strong emigration trends in healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics,' said Gallegos Torres. 'In summary, these are precisely the people that Germany urgently needs to secure its skilled labour force.' Why immigrants want to leave The reasons cited by those planning to leave varied: • Family ties were the main reason for return migration • Better pay and professional opportunities drove onward migration • Dissatisfaction with bureaucracy, tax burdens, and political climate played a key role "Almost two-thirds of immigrants report perceived discrimination, for example at work, on the housing market, in public spaces or in contact with the police," said Gallegos Torres. "A third of immigrants also feel either not at all or only slightly welcome. These are factors that significantly increase the tendency to emigrate." A growing political chill Kosyakova noted that Germany's political atmosphere may be influencing these decisions. 'In 2024, the debate was very much dominated by the issue of migration, and social acceptance was not particularly high,' she said. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its anti-immigration stance, emerged as the second-largest party in February's federal election. The CDU, which won the election, immediately rolled back plans to ease citizenship for well-integrated migrants and expanded border controls in its first coalition steps with the SPD. 'These big debates about migration and migration policy have a negative impact on people, on the feeling of welcome, on experiences of discrimination,' said Kosyakova. 'These are reasons why people report thinking more often about emigrating or actually planning to leave Germany.' Germany's demographic challenge The number of job vacancies remains high. At the end of 2024, German companies had 1.4 million unfilled positions. Shortages span from healthcare and IT to education, construction, and public transport. One in five nurses in Germany is now an immigrant. In 2024, foreigners made up just over 16 per cent of the total workforce, more than double the proportion in 2010. Dr Philipp Ackermann, Germany's ambassador to India, has been vocal about the need for more workers. 'We are really looking for talent. We are looking for the smartest, the brightest ones—the ones who maybe had an idea to go elsewhere. There is first-class education in Germany, especially in STEM, and most of it is in English,' said Ackermann earlier this month. In May 2025, Ackermann put the figure at 500,000 skilled workers needed annually. 'We need bakers, butchers, plumbers—people across the skills spectrum,' he said. What could help people stay? The IAB suggests that practical reforms could make a difference: • Reducing administrative hurdles • Streamlining recognition of foreign qualifications • Digitalising bureaucratic processes • Offering tax breaks to skilled workers The researchers also point to the need for broader social acceptance, beyond policy tweaks. Meanwhile, the CDU has proposed requiring foreign medical students to work in Germany for at least five years after graduation — or repay their tuition costs. 'Those who do not want to do so must repay the costs of this first-class education,' said Sepp Müller, deputy chairman of the CDU parliamentary group. The proposal has been backed by the CDU-led Health Ministry. 'We must attract young doctors to work in Germany instead of watching them leave,' said state secretary Tino Sorge. Who took part in the survey? The study covered immigrants from 188 countries. Seventy per cent of the respondents came from 26 countries, with the following groups most represented: Ukraine: 10.5 per cent individuals Turkey: 6.1 per cent individuals India: 4.4 per cent individuals United States: 4.3 per cent individuals Germany's challenge now lies not just in attracting migrants — but in persuading them that it's worth staying.
Local Germany
16-06-2025
- Politics
- Local Germany
Why a quarter of immigrants in Germany are thinking of leaving
According to a study by Germany's Institute for Employment Research (IAB), approximately one in every four immigrants is currently considering leaving the country. This equates to 2.6 million people. The study, which looked at data from a survey of around 50,000 immigrants, suggests that three percent of immigrants in Germany (300,000 people) already have concrete plans to leave. Around 12 percent (or 1.2 million people), on the other hand, currently plan to stay in the country temporarily, and a further 30 percent (or 3 million people) are undecided. A narrow majority of Germany's immigrant population, at around 57 percent, said they plan to stay permanently. The Local caught up with Dr. Katia Gallegos Torres, an IAB researcher who worked on the study, to ask why some immigrants are opting-out of settling in Germany long-term and what the country's governing authorities can do about it. Which factors push immigrants out of Germany? According to the study, the main reasons some immigrants want to leave Germany include; political dissatisfaction , discrimination in the workplace (and during interactions with authorities), the high tax burden, and bureaucratic obstacles . Family considerations and better economic prospects in other countries were also cited as reasons for contemplating emigration. Commenting on the findings, Gallegos Torres emphasized that social integration plays a decisive role in whether or not immigrants remain in a country. 'A strong subjective feeling of being welcome, emotional ties to Germany, and low perceptions of discrimination reduce the likelihood of emigration considerations and plans,' she told The Local. READ ALSO: What are your responsibilities as a foreign resident in Germany? One key finding of the survey is that 'well-integrated' migrants are more likely to consider leaving or already have concrete plans to do so. These are people who moved to Germany to work or study, and who tend to be better educated, more economically successful, and often have a better command of the German language. 'We know from migration research that people with higher levels of education are more mobile,' explained Gallegos Torres. 'However, in addition to higher mobility, there may be structural reasons driving this trend, such as the political situation in Germany.' Advertisement Other IAB studies have shown that foreign workers of all skill levels are more likely to move away from regions with more right-wing extremist attitudes. The fact that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is now the largest opposition party in Germany, along with recent moves by the federal government to take a harder line on migration, may well have heightened anxieties among immigrant communities. READ ALSO: 'A fifth of voters hate me' - How do foreigners in Germany feel about far-right surge? What is the government doing to retain skilled workers? Attracting migrants to Germany is one well-known challenge facing the German government, but persuading them to stay in the country is another. 'A sustainable migration policy requires more than simply promoting immigration – it is equally important to consider the possibility of people leaving the country," Gallegos Torres said. READ ALSO: Are significantly more skilled workers moving to Germany? Asked what the government can do to convince working immigrants to stay in Germany for the long-term, Gallegos Torres said her research has highlighted a number of areas where improvements could be made. 'The findings of the survey provide important pointers in this regard, and underscore the urgent need to remove structural barriers, accelerate and simplify migration and administrative processes, strengthen social integration, and actively promote social openness.' Advertisement She cited a federal initiative to create a "digital work and stay agency" as a solid step toward addressing some of those issues. The agency "will serve as a central IT platform to accelerate processes related to labour migration and the recognition of professional qualifications" Gallegos Torres explained. Additional concrete measures could include offering tax incentives, promoting local integration programs, and introducing measures to make it easier for the partners and children of immigrants to gain entry to Germany. OPINION: If Germany is to thrive it must help foreigners feel they belong here
