Are Donald Trump's NOAA Cuts to Blame for Texas Flood Tragedy? What To Know

Newsweek

a day ago

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Catastrophic flooding in Texas has sparked fresh scrutiny about the Trump administration's cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Weather Service (NWS).
Several experts have said that NWS did a "solid" job in warning about the flooding, but questions remain about how many people they reached and whether critical vacancies at forecast offices were a factor.
The NWS said in a statement to Newsweek that flash flood warnings had been issued on Thursday night and in the early hours on Friday, giving "preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met."
A flash flood on the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025.
A flash flood on the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025.
Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP via Getty Images
The Context
At least 82 people, including children at summer camps, died after floodwaters surged through Texas Hill Country, a central part of the state that is prone to flash floods, starting on Friday. Many are still missing, and officials have said the death toll is sure to rise.
With a massive search effort underway, some have raised questions about whether cuts to the NWS played a role in the tragedy after it was reported that the two NWS offices mostly closely involved in forecasting and warning about the flooding along the Guadalupe River—Austin-San Antonio and San Angelo—are missing key staff.
The NWS said last month that it would be hiring new meteorologists and specialists to "stabilize" operations after the Trump administration's job cuts. NBC News reported in May that the NWS was scrambling to reassign staffers internally and fill more than 150 positions to cover critical roles. The Associated Press earlier reported that nearly half of NWS offices had vacancy rates of 20 percent or more, with some locations facing even more severe staffing shortages.
What To Know
Some Texas officials suggested that forecasts from the NWS underestimated the rainfall.
Texas Emergency Management Chief W. Nim Kidd said during a news conference on Friday that the "original forecast that we received on Wednesday from the National Weather Service predicted 3 to 6 inches of rain in the Concho Valley and 4 to 8 inches of rain in the Hill Country.
"The amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts, nonetheless."
Dalton Rice, the city manager for Kerrville, said the storm "dumped more rain than what was forecast."
Representative Joaquin Castro, a Texas Democrat, said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday that an investigation should be carried out to determine if the job cuts played a role in people in the flood zone not being prepared.
But President Donald Trump rejected the idea of an investigation into whether his administration's cuts to the NWS left key vacancies.
White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson posted a thread on X, formerly Twitter, pointing to posts and articles with comments from meteorologists who said the NWS had given ample warning. Newsweek has contacted the White House for further comment via email.
Tom Fahy, the legislative director for the NWS employees' union, told CNN that he thinks the forecast offices had "adequate staffing and resources." But he said the Austin-San Antonio office is missing a warning coordination meteorologist, who serves as a crucial link between forecasters and emergency managers.
Jason Runyen, a meteorologist with the NWS, told AP that the NWS office in New Braunfels, which delivers forecasts for Austin, San Antonio and the surrounding areas, had extra staff on duty during the storms. While it usually has two forecasters on duty during clear weather, they had up to five during the storms, Runyen said.
Alan Gerard, former director of the analysis and understanding branch at the National Severe Storms Laboratory of the NOAA, wrote in a Substack post that "just as what I have been able to see about this event shows me the NWS did a solid job, similarly there is little evidence that any of the recent cuts to NOAA/NWS negatively impacted services for this event, regardless of what may be being said on social media."
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza wrote in a Substack post that there was "absolutely nothing" to suggest that current staffing or budget issues at the NOAA or NWS played a role.
What People Are Saying
The NWS said in a statement to Newsweek that it is "heartbroken by the tragic loss of life in Kerr County. On July 3, the NWS office in Austin/San Antonio, TX conducted forecast briefings for emergency management in the morning and issued a Flood Watch in the early afternoon. Flash Flood Warnings were issued on the night of July 3 and in the early morning of July 4, giving preliminary lead times of more than three hours before warning criteria were met.
"The National Weather Service remains committed to our mission to serve the American public through our forecasts and decision support services."
Representative Joaquin Castro, a Texas Democrat, on CNN: "I don't think it's helpful to have missing key personnel from the National Weather Service not in place to help prevent these tragedies."
Houston-based meteorologist Matt Lanza, in a Substack post: "In this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event. Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest. There are many places you can go with expressing thoughts on the current and proposed cuts. We've been very vocal about them here. But this is not the right event for those takes."
Avery Tomasco, a meteorologist at CBS Austin, on X: "All I'll say is this. The National Weather Service issued a flood watch for Kerr County more than 12 hours ahead of the catastrophic flood. A flash flood warning was issued for Hunt & Ingram 3 HOURS before the Guadalupe started to climb. They did their job and they did it well."
John Morales, a Florida-based meteorologist, wrote on X that the cuts "did not impact the warning process, but may have impacted coordination."
President Donald Trump told reporters, after being asked on Sunday if he thinks the government needs to hire back meteorologists whose jobs were cut: "I would think not. This was a thing that happened in seconds. Nobody expected it. Nobody saw it. Very talented people are there, they didn't see it. It's, I guess they said, once in 100 years. They've never seen anything like this."
What Happens Next
Last week, the Trump administration released a proposed 2026 budget for the NOAA, which calls for funding cuts. The cuts, if implemented, would take not take effect until the next fiscal year begins on October 1, 2025.
Meanwhile, multiple local, state and federal agencies are continuing to search for survivors in Texas. Trump said he would likely visit the flood zone on Friday.