
A look at Eritrea's role as new Tigray war looms in Ethiopia
Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, feeding concern that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still reeling from the brutal two-year civil war between the tigray people's liberation front (TPLF) and federal government forces — a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before it ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
"We can't plan anything at the moment," a woman in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, told DW. "We're just trying to survive. A new war could break out tomorrow." She described a climate of fear that has gripped many residents. "Life has become incredibly expensive. We need a peaceful solution so we can return to work and rebuild our lives."
During that war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF.
But critics warned at the time that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was notably absent from the talks in the South African's administrative capital, Pretoria.
Now, growing fears of renewed violence point towards Eritrea's involvement.
Internal division in Tigray
Another destabilizing factor is the political turmoil within Tigray itself. The once-dominant TPLF has fractured after internal power struggles — a vulnerability Eritrea could potentially exploit.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
No annual fees for life
UnionBank Credit Card
Apply Now
Undo
Following the split, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigrayd Defence forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekelle. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side."
On the other side of the divide is TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. His faction has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea — a claim it strongly denies.
Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement: "We urge the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war."
Despite these reassurances, fear is spreading among civilians.
"People are withdrawing their money from banks and stockpiling essentials like oil and teff [an Ethiopian cereal]," a resident of Mekele told DW.
He called on both TPLF factions "to step aside — or to use their influence to work with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war."
Eritrea's interest in a fragmented Ethiopia
A full-scale inter-state war may be unlikely, but proxy conflicts are a real possibility, said Gerrit Kurtz, Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank.
"Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened — when it's internally fragmented and beset by local conflicts," Kurtz told DW.
"That's why the internal crises we've seen over the past few years — many of which are supported, or at least exploited, by Eritrea — serve its strategic interests."
Observers say Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia — including, reportedly, the Fano militia in Amhara region. In March, Fano fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in a two-day battle that, according to Addis Ababa, left more than 300 militia members dead.
Arms, resources and influence
Eritrea has a long and contentious history with Ethiopia. After colonial rule ended, the country was absorbed into a federation with Ethiopia in 1952, and later forcibly annexed — a move that sparked a decades-long independence struggle. Eritrea finally broke away in 1993, costing Ethiopia its only direct access to the sea. Since then, Eritrea has become one of the world's most repressive and isolated regimes under Isaias Afwerki.
In 2010, the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on the country.
According to a new report by the US-based watchdog group The Sentry, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to strengthen its position significantly. "We identified two clear patterns," said Charles Cater, lead investigator for The Sentry, in an interview with DW. "First, the systematic looting of Tigray during the war — factories were dismantled and moved across the border.
Everything of value was taken to Eritrea.
"
The second pattern, he said, was illicit trade: Eritrea profited from smuggling gold, sesame, cultural artifacts, and even people from Tigray. The resulting foreign currency is believed to have helped fund Eritrea's ongoing operations in Ethiopia.
Another pivotal moment came in 2018, when Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement, ending years of open hostility. Prime Minister Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the breakthrough — but Afwerki was left out, despite the deal helping to lift the UN arms embargo against Eritrea.
The Sentry also documented how Eritrea subsequently bought weapons, including from Russia.
In response, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.
Abiy's calculations and border tensions
The Eritrean military is reportedly strengthening its positions near the Tigray border and may have advanced up to 10 kilometres (6 miles) into Ethiopian territory, according to The Sentry.
Both sides had previously agreed to a new border alignment during the 2018 thaw in relations.
The Pretoria Agreement stipulated the withdrawal of all non-federal forces from Tigray — including Eritrean troops. It is now up to the Ethiopian government to find a political solution, both with Eritrea and with the divided TPLF, noted SWP's Gerrit Kurtz.
"Abiy's strategy is to keep all domestic rivals weak enough that they can't unite against him.
That means sometimes aligning with certain factions, while repressing others. But it's a high-stakes game," Kurtz said.
Ethiopia is scheduled to hold national elections next year, and analysts warn that Abiy could use the Tigray crisis as political leverage. Since 2023, he has also revived calls for Ethiopia to secure its own access to the sea — a move that has already fuelled diplomatic tensions with Somalia and led some to fear a potential military incursion into Eritrea.
For now, Abiy has publicly reiterated his commitment to peace.
Survivor recounts Tigray civilian massacres
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Time of India
32 minutes ago
- Time of India
Pakistan urges global social media platforms to block accounts run by banned militant groups
Pakistan on Friday urged global social media companies to take action to block hundreds of accounts allegedly run by outlawed militant groups that Islamabad claims spread propaganda and glorify insurgents in the South Asian country. According to Pakistan's Deputy Interior Minister Talal Chaudhry , groups such as the Pakistani Taliban and the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army - banned by the Pakistani authorities and also designated as terrorist groups by the United States - have been using X, Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, and Telegram to promote violence in Pakistan. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category Artificial Intelligence PGDM Digital Marketing Technology Data Analytics Degree CXO MCA Healthcare Management Public Policy Operations Management Design Thinking Leadership Finance Cybersecurity Data Science Others others MBA healthcare Product Management Project Management Data Science Skills you'll gain: Duration: 7 Months S P Jain Institute of Management and Research CERT-SPJIMR Exec Cert Prog in AI for Biz India Starts on undefined Get Details Chaudhry, who spoke to reporters at a news conference, urged the tech companies to remove or disable these accounts, as well as those run by supporters of the militant groups. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Top 15 Most Beautiful Women in the World Undo Deputy Law Minister Aqeel Malik , who also spoke at the news conference, said Pakistani investigators have identified 481 accounts associated with the Pakistani Taliban, known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan or TTP, and the Balochistan Liberation Army, or BLA. The accounts were being used to incite violence and spread hate speech, Malik said. Live Events There was no immediate response from any of the social media platforms to Pakistan's request. Pakistan itself has in recent years blocked access to X, primarily to curb criticism from supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan but also voices of other dissenters. The plea comes amid a surge in violence across Pakistan, much of it blamed on the two militant groups, as well as the Islamic State group. The Pakistani Taliban are allies but a separate militant group from the Afghan Taliban. However, the Taliban takeover of neighbouring Afghanistan in 2021 has emboldened the TTP. Militant groups also heavily rely on social media platforms to claim responsibility for attacks against security forces and civilians in Pakistan.


Hindustan Times
36 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
'Pakistan has no objection to America listing TRF as terror group': Foreign minister Ishaq Dar
Pakistan's foreign minister Mohammad Ishaq Dar defended Islamabad's stance on the proscribed terror group The Resistance Front, shortly after the United States listed the outfit as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation (FTO). The Resistance Front – which India and the United States believe is an offshoot of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba – claimed responsibility for the Pahalgam terror attack on April 22. US secretary of state Marco Rubio (R) and Pakistani foreign minister Ishaq Dar walk together prior to a meeting at the department of state on July 25, 2025 in Washington, DC.(AFP) 'It is obviously a sovereign decision of the United States to designate the TRF. We have no issue. And we welcome, if they have any evidence, that they are involved,' said Dar at an event in Washington DC. Dar met US secretary of state Marco Rubio earlier on Friday. 'Linking the TRF to the Lashkar-e-Taiba is wrong. That outfit was dismantled years ago by Pakistan. The actors were prosecuted, arrested and jailed, and the entire outfit was destroyed,' said Dar, repeating a claim often made by Pakistan's government. Earlier, Dar told Pakistan's Parliament that Islamabad had blocked mention of the TRF in a UN Security Council Resolution which condemned the Pahalgam attacks. 'We opposed the mention of TRF in the UNSC statement. I got calls from global capitals, but Pakistan will not accept. TRF was deleted, and Pakistan prevailed," said Dar in April. Dar added at the time that Pakistan would require further proof about the TRF's activities. Dar defended that stance in response to a query from HT at a public event on Friday. Pakistan's foreign minister said no evidence was available at the time against the TRF to justify its inclusion in a UNSC statement. India declared TRF a terrorist organisation under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act in January 2023. The South Asia Terrorism Portal indicates that TRF emerged in 2019 via social media announcements, and since then, it has taken responsibility for several attacks across Jammu and Kashmir, including a grenade attack in Srinagar, injuring seven civilians and targeted killings in 2021. India has persistently pushed for the TRF to be designated as a terrorist entity internationally, submitting evidence and representations to the UN's 1267 Sanctions Committee monitoring team in May and November 2024, having raised this issue previously throughout 2023.


Time of India
42 minutes ago
- Time of India
Rajasthan school building collapse: Rahul Gandhi demands probe, strict punishment for culprits
The Congress on Friday slammed the BJP over the death of seven children in a government school building collapse in Rajasthan's Jhalawar, with Rahul Gandhi demanding a probe and strict punishment for the culprits. A regular morning that saw students assembling for prayers quickly turned into tragedy on Friday when a portion of their government school building collapsed, killing seven children and injuring 27, some of them critically. Explore courses from Top Institutes in Please select course: Select a Course Category MCA Cybersecurity Data Science Management Project Management Data Analytics Technology MBA PGDM Operations Management Others others CXO Product Management Data Science Design Thinking Public Policy Artificial Intelligence Healthcare Degree Digital Marketing Leadership Finance healthcare Skills you'll gain: Programming Proficiency Data Handling & Analysis Cybersecurity Awareness & Skills Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning Duration: 24 Months Vellore Institute of Technology VIT Master of Computer Applications Starts on Aug 14, 2024 Get Details The youngest of those who died was only six years old. Minutes into the morning at the Piplodi Government School in Rajasthan's Jhalawar district, a part of the middle school building housing Classes 6 and 7 gave way, burying about several children. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Meet The Pillow That Is Changing The Lives Of People With Sleep Apnea (It's Genius!) Health Insight Undo In a post in Hindi on X, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said the death of many innocent children due to the collapse of the roof of a government school in Jhalawar, Rajasthan, is a very painful and shameful incident. "The government which cannot repair the roofs of the schools of our children, despite complaints, for the future of the country, shows big dreams of 'Viksit Bharat'," he said. Live Events According to a news report from the previous day, water in a school run by the Municipal Corporation of Delhi was so much that the teachers themselves had to take the nursery children to a safe place, he said. Today, the news has come that the building of a school in Jodhpur has become so dilapidated that the children are forced to study under a neem tree, he said. "The BJP, which boasts a lot about development, has ruined the country. Bridge collapses, train accidents, cracks in newly built roads, statues of great personalities getting damaged after inauguration - all these have become common," he alleged. "The attention of the BJP is focused on only one thing - hunger for power!" Kharge said. Former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi also lashed out at the BJP over the incident. "It is extremely saddening and worrying that several innocent children died and many others were injured when the roof of a government school collapsed in Jhalawar, Rajasthan," he said on X. "According to media reports, the government ignored the complaints about dilapidated schools, due to which these innocent children lost their lives. Most of these children belonged to the Bahujan Samaj - do their lives have no value for the BJP government?" Gandhi said. "There should be an impartial investigation of this incident and the culprits should be given the strictest punishment," he asserted. Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said the news of the death of several innocent children and injuries to many due to the collapse of the roof of a school in Jhalawar, Rajasthan, is extremely saddening. "According to reports, serious negligence regarding the dilapidated building took the lives of the innocent children. The matter should be investigated immediately, and strict action should be taken against the culprits," she said. Slabs of concrete, bricks and stones were piled up high, and scores of people, including frantic parents and teachers, helped in the rescue effort, searching through the mounds of debris to pull out the children.