
A look at Eritrea's role as new Tigray war looms in Ethiopia
Reports of troop movements and sporadic clashes in northern Ethiopia have emerged in recent months, feeding concern that a fragile calm could soon collapse. The region is still reeling from the brutal two-year civil war between the tigray people's liberation front (TPLF) and federal government forces — a conflict that claimed an estimated 600,000 lives before it ended with the Pretoria peace agreement in November 2022.
"We can't plan anything at the moment," a woman in Mekele, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, told DW. "We're just trying to survive. A new war could break out tomorrow." She described a climate of fear that has gripped many residents. "Life has become incredibly expensive. We need a peaceful solution so we can return to work and rebuild our lives."
During that war, Eritrean troops supported Ethiopian prime minister Abiy Ahmed's campaign against the TPLF.
But critics warned at the time that peace would remain fragile without Eritrea at the negotiating table. President Isaias Afwerki, who has ruled Eritrea for decades, was notably absent from the talks in the South African's administrative capital, Pretoria.
Now, growing fears of renewed violence point towards Eritrea's involvement.
Internal division in Tigray
Another destabilizing factor is the political turmoil within Tigray itself. The once-dominant TPLF has fractured after internal power struggles — a vulnerability Eritrea could potentially exploit.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
No annual fees for life
UnionBank Credit Card
Apply Now
Undo
Following the split, General Tadesse Werede, former commander of the defeated Tigrayd Defence forces (TDF), was appointed head of the Tigray interim government in Mekelle. He has urged caution against misinformation and vowed, "There will be no war and no provocation from Tigray's side."
On the other side of the divide is TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael. His faction has been accused of cooperating with Eritrea — a claim it strongly denies.
Debretsion has called for a political resolution grounded in the Pretoria agreement: "We urge the international community to pressure the Ethiopian government, its agents, and allies to refrain from preparing for war."
Despite these reassurances, fear is spreading among civilians.
"People are withdrawing their money from banks and stockpiling essentials like oil and teff [an Ethiopian cereal]," a resident of Mekele told DW.
He called on both TPLF factions "to step aside — or to use their influence to work with the central government to resolve the crisis and prevent war."
Eritrea's interest in a fragmented Ethiopia
A full-scale inter-state war may be unlikely, but proxy conflicts are a real possibility, said Gerrit Kurtz, Horn of Africa expert at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), a Berlin-based think tank.
"Eritrea benefits when Ethiopia is weakened — when it's internally fragmented and beset by local conflicts," Kurtz told DW.
"That's why the internal crises we've seen over the past few years — many of which are supported, or at least exploited, by Eritrea — serve its strategic interests."
Observers say Eritrea has trained armed groups inside Ethiopia — including, reportedly, the Fano militia in Amhara region. In March, Fano fighters clashed with Ethiopian federal troops in a two-day battle that, according to Addis Ababa, left more than 300 militia members dead.
Arms, resources and influence
Eritrea has a long and contentious history with Ethiopia. After colonial rule ended, the country was absorbed into a federation with Ethiopia in 1952, and later forcibly annexed — a move that sparked a decades-long independence struggle. Eritrea finally broke away in 1993, costing Ethiopia its only direct access to the sea. Since then, Eritrea has become one of the world's most repressive and isolated regimes under Isaias Afwerki.
In 2010, the United Nations imposed an arms embargo on the country.
According to a new report by the US-based watchdog group The Sentry, Eritrea has used its involvement in the Tigray conflict to strengthen its position significantly. "We identified two clear patterns," said Charles Cater, lead investigator for The Sentry, in an interview with DW. "First, the systematic looting of Tigray during the war — factories were dismantled and moved across the border.
Everything of value was taken to Eritrea.
"
The second pattern, he said, was illicit trade: Eritrea profited from smuggling gold, sesame, cultural artifacts, and even people from Tigray. The resulting foreign currency is believed to have helped fund Eritrea's ongoing operations in Ethiopia.
Another pivotal moment came in 2018, when Ethiopia and Eritrea signed a peace agreement, ending years of open hostility. Prime Minister Abiy was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for the breakthrough — but Afwerki was left out, despite the deal helping to lift the UN arms embargo against Eritrea.
The Sentry also documented how Eritrea subsequently bought weapons, including from Russia.
In response, Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel dismissed the report as a "fabricated narrative" meant to scapegoat Eritrea.
Abiy's calculations and border tensions
The Eritrean military is reportedly strengthening its positions near the Tigray border and may have advanced up to 10 kilometres (6 miles) into Ethiopian territory, according to The Sentry.
Both sides had previously agreed to a new border alignment during the 2018 thaw in relations.
The Pretoria Agreement stipulated the withdrawal of all non-federal forces from Tigray — including Eritrean troops. It is now up to the Ethiopian government to find a political solution, both with Eritrea and with the divided TPLF, noted SWP's Gerrit Kurtz.
"Abiy's strategy is to keep all domestic rivals weak enough that they can't unite against him.
That means sometimes aligning with certain factions, while repressing others. But it's a high-stakes game," Kurtz said.
Ethiopia is scheduled to hold national elections next year, and analysts warn that Abiy could use the Tigray crisis as political leverage. Since 2023, he has also revived calls for Ethiopia to secure its own access to the sea — a move that has already fuelled diplomatic tensions with Somalia and led some to fear a potential military incursion into Eritrea.
For now, Abiy has publicly reiterated his commitment to peace.
Survivor recounts Tigray civilian massacres
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Time of India
23 minutes ago
- Time of India
'Manifests savarn and shudras': MP HC flags 'caste system' in judiciary; calls out feudal mindset
MP high court NEW DELHI: The Madhya Pradesh high court has made strong observations on the existing structure of the judiciary in the state, comparing the relationship between high court judges and district judges to that of "feudal lord and serf. " The court also criticised what it described as a "caste system" within the judicial setup, where high court judges are seen as "savarn" and district judges as "shudras" and "les misérables." A division bench of Justices Atul Sreedharan and D K Paliwali made these remarks in its order dated July 14, while allowing a petition filed by Jagat Mohan Chaturvedi, a former special court judge. Chaturvedi had challenged his termination from service in 2015, which followed his decisions on bail pleas in the Vyapam scam and other cases. He had granted bail to some and denied relief to others, and was later accused of holding divergent views on similar matters. The court said, "At a subliminal level, the penumbra of the caste system manifests in the judicial structure in this state where those in the high court are the savarn and the shudras are the les Misérables of the District Judiciary." "The dismal relationship between the judges of the high court and the judges of the District Judiciary is one between a feudal lord and serf. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like No annual fees for life UnionBank Credit Card Apply Now Undo The feudal state of mind that still exists in the state, results in its manifestation in the judiciary also," the bench said. The court noted that such a structure creates fear and a sense of inferiority among district judges. It said, "Experience at Bar gives this Court the wisdom to arrive at the opinion that the District Judiciary functions under the perpetual fear of the high court. Like this case, where the Petitioner was terminated from service on account of passing bail orders in favour of the applicants, the message that goes down to the District Judiciary by such acts of the High Court is that acquittals recorded in major cases or bails granted by the Courts below the High Court, can result in adverse action against Judges passing such orders, though they are judicial orders. " It added, "It is precisely cases like this that result in a large number of bail applications pending before the high court as also the criminal appeals." The bench also observed that "instances of the judges of the district judiciary personally attending to judges of the high court are commonplace as also the latter not offering a seat to the former, thereby perpetuating a colonial decadence with a sense of entitlement." On Chaturvedi's dismissal, the court said the case shows a "malady that cannot be addressed effectively on account of the social structure existing in the State, which also manifests in the judiciary." It said the termination affirms the belief that trial court judges may face consequences for granting relief to accused persons. The order of Chaturvedi's dismissal was issued on October 19, 2015. His appeal was dismissed on August 1, 2016. The division bench has now quashed the termination order and imposed a cost of Rs 5 lakh on the state government through the principal secretary, Law and Legislative Department, and the MP high court registrar general. The court said Chaturvedi had to face humiliation in society without any evidence of corruption presented against him.


Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
India-UK trade deal: These states and sectors may benefit most from tariff cuts; full list here
Representative image (ANI) As India and the United Kingdom ink the comprehensive economic and trade agreement (CETA), several states are poised to reap substantial economic benefits, according to ET. The deal eliminates tariffs and eases market access, unlocking new export opportunities across key sectors such as textiles, engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, marine products, and handicrafts. The following outlines the key economic gains projected for major states under the India–UK trade deal, highlighting sectors likely to experience substantial export growth driven by tariff reductions and enhanced access to the UK market, as reported by ET. Maharashtra Key Benefiting Sectors: Engineering goods, Pharmaceuticals, Apparel Nature of Expected Benefit: Higher exports of auto components, generic medicines, and garments from hubs like Pune, Mumbai, & Ichalkaranji Gujarat Key Benefiting Sectors: Pharmaceuticals, Chemicals, Engineering goods, Marine products Nature of Expected Benefit: Boost to pharma exports (Ahmedabad), chemicals (Surat & Bharuch), engineering (Rajkot), seafood (Veraval); MSMEs to benefit from easier UK access Tamil Nadu Key Benefiting Sectors: Textiles, Leather, Engineering goods Nature of Expected Benefit: Major gains in apparel (Tiruppur), leather (Vellore), auto parts (Chennai); improved price competitiveness in UK Karnataka Key Benefiting Sectors: Engineering goods, Electronics, Pharma Nature of Expected Benefit: Bangalore-based machinery and electronics exporters to benefit; pharma units to expand exports Andhra Pradesh Key Benefiting Sectors: Marine products, Textiles Nature of Expected Benefit: Substantial gains in shrimp and seafood exports from Visakhapatnam and Kakinada; textile units in Guntur region to benefit Odisha Key Benefiting Sectors: Marine products, Handicrafts Nature of Expected Benefit: Improved access for seafood from Paradip and Balasore; potential for traditional crafts in UK market Punjab Key Benefiting Sectors: Textiles, Engineering goods Nature of Expected Benefit: Textile exporters in Ludhiana and auto parts manufacturers to benefit from UK duty elimination. West Bengal Key Benefiting Sectors: Leather goods, Processed food, Tea Nature of Expected Benefit: Exports of leather items (Kolkata), Darjeeling tea, and packaged food items to increase Kerala Key Benefiting Sectors: Marine products, Spices Nature of Expected Benefit: Higher UK demand for shrimp, tuna and black pepper; exporters in Kochi and Alappuzha to gain Rajasthan Key Benefiting Sectors: Handicrafts, Gems & Jewellery Nature of Expected Benefit: Exports of Jaipur's jewellery and Jodhpur's furniture and crafts to expand due to reduced tariffs Delhi Key Benefiting Sectors: Apparel, Engineering, Jewellery Nature of Expected Benefit: MSMEs in Delhi NCR to gain from textile and jewellery exports; improved access to UK retailers Haryana Key Benefiting Sectors: Auto components, Textiles Nature of Expected Benefit: Exporters from Gurgaon and Faridabad to benefit from UK's zero-duty entry for engineering and textile goods Uttar Pradesh Key Benefiting Sectors: Handicrafts, Leather, Apparel Nature of Expected Benefit: Boost to Moradabad brassware, Kanpur leather, and Noida apparel exports with FTA-driven duty elimination Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now


Time of India
25 minutes ago
- Time of India
Proposed bill will ease the pathway for a green card — but will it pass?
Immigrants in the US could qualify for lawful permanent resident status (commonly known as a green card) if they have lived in the country continuously for at least seven years before applying, do not have a criminal record, and meet all other current eligibility requirements — according to a bill proposed to be introduced in the US Senate by Senator Alex Padilla . The announcement comes against the backdrop of what the bill's backers describe as the 'indiscriminate' immigration enforcement practices of the Trump administration, according to a release. The bill is expected to be introduced in the US Senate in the coming week, but immigration experts are skeptical about its chances of passing. Padilla, a ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Immigration, had made headlines just a month ago when he was forcibly removed from a press conference held by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem — an incident that sparked nationwide debate. Senator Dick Durbin will co-lead the bill in the Senate, while Representative Zoe Lofgren will lead the parallel effort in the House of Representatives. 'This overdue update would provide a much-needed pathway to a green card for more than 8 million people, including Dreamers, forcibly displaced individuals ( Temporary Protected Status holders ), children of long-term visa holders, essential workers, and highly skilled members of our workforce, such as H-1B visa holders , who have been waiting years for a green card to become available,' says a release from Padilla's office. If passed, the bill would also benefit hundreds of Indian nationals stuck in a decades-long backlog for employment-based green cards and help prevent family separation caused by children 'ageing out' (turning 21). At present, these children must either switch from a dependent visa (such as an H-4) to an international student visa or deport to India or another country. According to a March 2023 analysis by David J. Bier, director of immigration studies at the Cato Institute , the employment-based green card backlog for India (EB-2 and EB-3 categories) had reached 10. 7 lakh, with nearly 1.34 lakh children projected to age out before a green card became available. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like American Investor Warren Buffett Recommends: 5 Books For Turning Your Life Around Blinkist: Warren Buffett's Reading List Undo Technically, the bill seeks to amend Section 249 of the Immigration and Nationality Act, known as the "Registry," which gives the Secretary of Homeland Security discretion to grant lawful permanent resident status to individuals who have been in the country since a specified date and meet other criteria. Section 249 was last updated in 1986, and the current cutoff date for eligibility remains January 1, 1972 — more than 50 years ago. Senator Padilla had introduced a similar bill in September 2022, which is now being revived and reintroduced. The 'Renewing Immigration Provisions of the Immigration Act of 1929' would amend the Registry statute by updating the eligibility cutoff, allowing individuals who have lived in the US for at least seven years before filing an application to qualify for permanent residency. 'Americans know there's a better path forward than the Trump administration's cruel scapegoating of hardworking immigrants and fearmongering in California communities,' said Padilla. 'We believe that if you've lived here for over seven years, paid taxes, contributed to your community, and have no criminal record, then you deserve a pathway to legalization. My bill is a commonsense fix to our outdated immigration system — the same kind of reform Republican President Ronald Reagan embraced four decades ago, calling it a 'matter of basic fairness.' This legislation creates no new bureaucracies or agencies — it simply updates a longstanding pathway to reflect today's reality and provide a fair shot at the American Dream for millions of Dreamers, TPS holders, and highly skilled workers who have faced delays and uncertainty for decades.'