Where is Nifty headed this week amid trade deal uncertainty?
The market remained range-bound last week as investors awaited clarity on the upcoming US-India trade deal and the US tariff deadline on July 9. Analysts expect the benchmark Nifty to find support in the 24,900–25,200 range this week. A decisive breakout above the 26,000 level could pave the way for a continued rally toward new all-time highs. Analysts suggest that investors consider using market dips as buying opportunities.
DHARMESH SHAH
VICE PRESIDENT, HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES
Where is Nifty headed this week? Equity benchmarks have taken a breather amid increasing anxiety ahead of the trade deal deadline. Nifty dropped 1% to settle the week at 25,400. Sectorally, consumption, pharma, defence remained at the forefront; while, realty, financials (ex- PSU Banks) underwent profit booking. The weekly price action formed a small bear candle carrying higher low, indicating pause in upward momentum after past two weeks up move. Better-than-expected quarterly numbers may fuel momentum to challenge the all-time high of 26,277. From a seasonality perspective, July has historically been a favourable month for the Nifty. Since 1991, it has delivered positive returns 71% of the time, with an average gain of 2.5%. Trading strategies for the week: Any dip from current levels should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with strong support seen near the 24,900 mark.
Furthermore, persistent FII inflows, the bilateral trade agreement between India and the US, a decline in the US Dollar Index, and easing Brent crude prices are expected to provide support to the market. On the sectoral front, BFSI, metals, capital goods, pharma, and consumption are likely to remain in focus. Reliance, HDFC Bank, Titan, Tata Steel, L&T and IOC look good for 5-6% gains. Among midcaps, Auro Pharma, Engineers India, Federal Bank, CESC, Gokaldas Exports, Canara Bank, BEML, JSW Infra, Vguard look good for 8-10% upside.
TANMAY SHAH
RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL
Where is Nifty Headed This Week?
After a strong trending move, market has shifted into a rangebound phase, largely driven by anticipation around the upcoming trade deal between India and the US. The market may remain sideways between 25,100 and 25,600. A decisive close above 25,600 could open the path toward 26,000. On the downside 25,100 is likely to serve as a strong support.
Trading strategies for the week: Recent RBI data signals a strong economic rebound with rising consumer spending, robust export growth, and capacity utilisation exceeding long-term averages. With fundamentals strengthening, market sentiment is likely to remain upbeat. Any dip or consolidation should be viewed as a buying opportunity. Sectors poised to benefit from this momentum include banking, consumer discretionary, infrastructure, and textiles. Among the large caps, HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hindalco, and M&M look good. In the mid-cap space, Hindustan Copper, Zydus Life, and Max Healthcare stand out, while Nitin Spinners, and Poonawalla Fincorp offer small-cap potential.
SUDEEP SHAH
HEAD - TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH DESK, SBI SECURITIES
Where is the Nifty headed? The global backdrop remains supportive for risk assets. While Nifty and the broader small-cap and mid-cap indices traded in a tight range last week, it reflects market indecision and consolidation ahead of the key July 9 tariff deal deadline. From a medium-term view, the broader trend remains bullish, with Nifty trading above key short- and long-term moving averages, keeping the structural uptrend intact. The 20-day EMA zone of 25,250–25,200 will act as immediate support. On the upside, 25,600–25,650 remains a key hurdle. A decisive breakout on either side will likely trigger a trending move in the index.
Trading strategies for the week:
The ongoing consolidation offers a good opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality largeand mid-cap stocks. Traders should focus on banking & financials, consumer durables, pharma, and oil & gas, which may outperform in the near term. A stock-specific approach remains key, with picks like Divi's Lab, Balkrishna Industries, BPCL, IOC, Chennai Petro, CSB Bank, and Navin Fluorine likely to show strength.
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