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Economic Times
6 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Where is Nifty headed this week amid trade deal uncertainty?
Agencies A stock-specific approach remains key, with picks like Divi's Lab, Balkrishna Industries, BPCL, IOC, Chennai Petro, CSB Bank, and Navin Fluorine likely to show strength. The market remained range-bound last week as investors awaited clarity on the upcoming US-India trade deal and the US tariff deadline on July 9. Analysts expect the benchmark Nifty to find support in the 24,900–25,200 range this week. A decisive breakout above the 26,000 level could pave the way for a continued rally toward new all-time highs. Analysts suggest that investors consider using market dips as buying opportunities. DHARMESH SHAH VICE PRESIDENT, HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? Equity benchmarks have taken a breather amid increasing anxiety ahead of the trade deal deadline. Nifty dropped 1% to settle the week at 25,400. Sectorally, consumption, pharma, defence remained at the forefront; while, realty, financials (ex- PSU Banks) underwent profit booking. The weekly price action formed a small bear candle carrying higher low, indicating pause in upward momentum after past two weeks up move. Better-than-expected quarterly numbers may fuel momentum to challenge the all-time high of 26,277. From a seasonality perspective, July has historically been a favourable month for the Nifty. Since 1991, it has delivered positive returns 71% of the time, with an average gain of 2.5%. Trading strategies for the week: Any dip from current levels should be viewed as a buying opportunity, with strong support seen near the 24,900 mark. Furthermore, persistent FII inflows, the bilateral trade agreement between India and the US, a decline in the US Dollar Index, and easing Brent crude prices are expected to provide support to the market. On the sectoral front, BFSI, metals, capital goods, pharma, and consumption are likely to remain in focus. Reliance, HDFC Bank, Titan, Tata Steel, L&T and IOC look good for 5-6% gains. Among midcaps, Auro Pharma, Engineers India, Federal Bank, CESC, Gokaldas Exports, Canara Bank, BEML, JSW Infra, Vguard look good for 8-10% upside. TANMAY SHAH RESEARCH HEAD, SIHL Where is Nifty Headed This Week? After a strong trending move, market has shifted into a rangebound phase, largely driven by anticipation around the upcoming trade deal between India and the US. The market may remain sideways between 25,100 and 25,600. A decisive close above 25,600 could open the path toward 26,000. On the downside 25,100 is likely to serve as a strong support. Trading strategies for the week: Recent RBI data signals a strong economic rebound with rising consumer spending, robust export growth, and capacity utilisation exceeding long-term averages. With fundamentals strengthening, market sentiment is likely to remain upbeat. Any dip or consolidation should be viewed as a buying opportunity. Sectors poised to benefit from this momentum include banking, consumer discretionary, infrastructure, and textiles. Among the large caps, HDFC Bank, UltraTech Cement, Hindalco, and M&M look good. In the mid-cap space, Hindustan Copper, Zydus Life, and Max Healthcare stand out, while Nitin Spinners, and Poonawalla Fincorp offer small-cap potential. SUDEEP SHAH HEAD - TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH DESK, SBI SECURITIES Where is the Nifty headed? The global backdrop remains supportive for risk assets. While Nifty and the broader small-cap and mid-cap indices traded in a tight range last week, it reflects market indecision and consolidation ahead of the key July 9 tariff deal deadline. From a medium-term view, the broader trend remains bullish, with Nifty trading above key short- and long-term moving averages, keeping the structural uptrend intact. The 20-day EMA zone of 25,250–25,200 will act as immediate support. On the upside, 25,600–25,650 remains a key hurdle. A decisive breakout on either side will likely trigger a trending move in the index. Trading strategies for the week: The ongoing consolidation offers a good opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality largeand mid-cap stocks. Traders should focus on banking & financials, consumer durables, pharma, and oil & gas, which may outperform in the near term. A stock-specific approach remains key, with picks like Divi's Lab, Balkrishna Industries, BPCL, IOC, Chennai Petro, CSB Bank, and Navin Fluorine likely to show strength.
Time of India
02-06-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Nifty's breakout above 25,150 to pave way for 25,500: Analysts
Nifty may continue its consolidation phase this week, as the index faces key resistance around the 25,100–25,150 zone. A breakout above this range could pave the way toward the 25,500–25,700 levels. On the downside, 24,500–24,600 is seen as a strong support zone. Analysts believe that any dips from current levels could be used to accumulate quality stocks, particularly in the financials, infrastructure, capital goods, and PSU-linked sectors. DHARMESH SHAH HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES Where is Nifty Headed This Week? Nifty underperformed global peers last week. Its weekly price action formed a small bearish candle, suggesting an extended breather. We expect the index to continue consolidating in the 24,500–25,100 range, with a positive bias. The index has sustained above its 20-day moving average, and the formation of higher highs and higher lows, along with improving market breadth, suggests that a breakout above 25,100 is likely, with a target of 25,500 in June. Trading Strategies for the Week: Volatility is expected to subside as the earnings season concludes, and attention shifts to the upcoming RBI policy. Sectors such as BFSI, auto, capital goods, realty, oil & gas, and metals are expected to be in focus. Dips should be viewed as buying opportunities, with strong support at 24,200. Stock picks include Reliance, SBI, Axis Bank, DLF, L&T, Tata Steel, HPCL, and Adani Ports (5–6% upside potential). Mid-cap picks include Indian Bank, L&T Finance, Elgi Equipment, HEG, and JK Cement (8–10% potential). SUDEEP SHAH HEAD - TECHNICAL AND DERIVATIVE RESEARCH, SBI SECURITIES Where is Nifty Headed This Week? Nifty posted its lowest monthly range in 10 months, a sign that often precedes sharp directional moves. Despite the tight trading band, the index closed the month on a positive note, marking its third consecutive monthly gain. Strong rollovers suggest continued investor confidence. Seasonality trends are also favourable—June has ended in the green in 11 out of the last 18 years, with an average gain of 4.19%. Technically, 25,050–25,100 is the immediate resistance zone; a sustained breakout could trigger a rally to 25,500–25,700. On the downside, 24,500–24,550 is a key support, followed by the 50-day EMA near 24,100. Trading Strategies for the Week This consolidation phase presents a good opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate quality largeand mid-cap stocks. Traders should focus on PSU banks, financials, capital markets, PSEs, and realty, which may outperform in the near term. Large-cap ideas include HDFC Bank, Pidilite, PNB, and Bank of Baroda. In the mid-cap segment, Muthoot Finance, Manappuram, Cummins, NBCC, and HUDCO are expected to perform well. TANMAY SHAH HEAD OF RESEARCH, SIHL Where is Nifty Headed This Week? Nifty is showing signs of indecision amid global slowdown fears triggered by a 0.2% dip in US GDP— the first since 2022—raising concerns of possible stagflation. The index faces crucial resistance at 25,080. A breakout above this level could pave the way for a move towards 25,550. On the downside, 24,600 is expected to act as strong support, cushioning against further declines.. Trading Strategies for the Week With the market now focused on the upcoming MPC meeting, which broadly anticipating a rate cut, liquidity could improve, adding further stability. While valuations appear stretched, a 'buy-on-dips' approach could be prudent. Other sectors showing strength include metals, chemicals, housing finance, textiles, and infrastructure. Among large-caps, SBIN, Adani Ports, IOC, and UltraTech Cement look solid. In the mid-cap space, PB Fintech, Deepak Nitrite, and KEI Industries stand out, while Laurus Labs, NCC, and PNB Housing Finance offer small-cap potential.
Time of India
12-05-2025
- Business
- Time of India
Tech indicators point to continued market weakness amid India-Pakistan conflict
Most technical indicators point to continued market weakness amid the India-Pakistan conflict. Analysts say sentiment is unlikely to improve unless both nations adhere to proposed cessation hostilities, and the Nifty reclaims 24,500. Immediate support is seen at 23,800, with a further cushion at 23,500. Analysts recommend relatively safer bets in quality stocks such as ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, Home First Finance, SBI, HUL, BEL, SRF, Nykaa, Samvardhana Motherson, and Titan. MEHUL KOTHARI AVP - TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARES & STOCK BROKERS Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty's recent correction was broadly anticipated. While the fall itself wasn't a surprise, the geopolitical trigger adds a layer of concern. Technically, the index has formed a bearish engulfing pattern on weekly chart, suggesting more downside unless it reclaims 24,500. In the short term, 23,800 acts as immediate support, followed by 23,500, which aligns with the 200-EMA. If these levels are breached, the bearish momentum may intensify. On the flip side, if Nifty moves above 24,500 and Bank Nifty reclaims 55,000, the broader trend could stabilise, offering a short-term relief rally. Until then, volatility may persist. What could investors do? With both Nifty and Bank Nifty testing critical support, traders should remain cautious. Long positions are only advisable above 24,500 in Nifty and 55,000 in Bank Nifty, with protective puts. Short trades may be considered on a break below 23,800, targeting 23,500 and lower, while Bank Nifty shorts may eye 52,600 if 53,500 breaks. Investors can consider staggered accumulation near Nifty at 23,500 and Bank Nifty at 51,800–52,600, but should increase exposure only on clear strength above key resistances. SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR VP-TECHNICAL & DERIVATIVES, TRADEBULLS SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed? Nifty appears to be entering a phase of time and price correction, with the index now struggling to decisively surpass the key resistance level of 24,545. This week marks the first close below recent weekly swing low of 24,008, signalling potential short-term weakness, although the index still managed to hold above its 5-week EMA support at 23,860. Trend strength indicators such as ADX falling below 18 and RSI heading toward the neutral 50 mark further support the likelihood of an ongoing corrective phase. What could investors do? For momentum traders, it is advisable to avoid chasing breakouts and instead wait for a confirmed close above 24,545. Should the ongoing correction deepens, investors can view it as a staggered accumulation opportunity. Key support levels to watch include the 20-week EMA near 23,540 and the 22,900 zone, which represents a critical weekly support. These levels are likely to uphold the broader bullish structure. Top picks are ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, Home First Finance, SBI, HUL, BEL, SRF, Nykaa, Samvardhana Motherson, and Titan DHARMESH SHAH HEAD OF TECHNICAL, ICICI SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? Nifty snapped a three-week winning streak tracking escalated geopolitical tension and settled the volatile week at 24,008, down 1.4%. The heightened geopolitical tension fuelled the volatility in the market. We expect Nifty to consolidate in the broader range of 24,500- 23,200, wherein stock-specific action would prevail amid the ongoing earnings season. Meanwhile, the de-escalation of armed conflict would be the key monitorable as it would open the door for the next leg of up-move. What should investors do? We advise not to panic but rather build quality portfolios from a medium-term perspective, as strong support is placed at 23,200. Further, persistent FPI inflow, a bilateral Trade Agreement between India and the US would provide cushion to the market. We remain constructive on BFSI, IT, defence and textile. Hence, dips should be used as a buying opportunity in quality stocks with strong earnings.
