2025 NFL betting: 3 over/unders to bet right now
Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams make the playoffs each season, and win totals typically finish about 2.5 wins off their preseason lines. There is value to be found; it's just a matter of identifying it correctly.
The market I always target first for futures betting is season win totals, and there are three main reasons why.
First, without getting too deep into the gambling math, these bets take place in a low-hold market. 'Hold' refers to the rake rate the sportsbook makes on a given bet. Awards markets, for example, often have three times the hold of a season win-total market. The same betting angle can often be approached in multiple ways, so finding the lowest-hold option can maximize your edge.
Second, there's the availability of 'outs.' The season win-total market is usually reopened weekly with updated odds. This allows bettors to double down, hedge, open a middle or time schedule wrinkles into their strategy. It creates more flexibility within the bet type throughout the season.
Finally, these futures tend to pay out the fastest. For instance, if you bet a team over 8.5 wins and a team reaches nine wins by Week 12, the bet is graded, the funds are returned and your balance is freed up to jump on another actionable angle.
After scouring the market for NFL win totals, evaluating where different books have priced their lines, where initial movement has occurred and how each team's schedule looks, three bets clearly stood out to me.
Here are my three favorite NFL over/unders to bet right now (as always, shop around for the best price):
New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)
This was my first NFL futures bet placed this season. The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on the combined projected win totals of their opponents. Using the lookahead lines available now, they are currently favored in 11 games.
The Patriots bring in head coach Mike Vrabel, who has gone over his win total in four of six seasons as an NFL head coach and who previously helmed a Ryan Tannehill-led team to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Vrabel is a culture-setter, and his teams play physical, high-IQ football and often exceed expectations.
Some sportsbooks initially opened this line at 7.5 (-140 to the over, +120 to the under), but it was quickly bet up to 8.5. Since one win is worth approximately 45 cents of vig, the current line at some sportsbooks of 8.5 at +105 is very similar in value and still worth betting.
The only truly difficult stretch in the Patriots' schedule begins in Week 12, when three of four games come against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Set a reminder for Nov. 14 to start evaluating your outs between their Week 11 matchup against the Jets and Week 12 against the Bengals, right before the tough part of the schedule kicks in.
New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-145)
I think the Saints may be the worst team in the NFL this season and are a full fade. First-year head coach Kellen Moore takes over a team stuck in salary cap hell. The Saints will carry nearly $50 million in 'dead cap' money (funds they cannot use to improve the roster). That's the highest figure in the NFL this season and is typically a strong indicator of an impending rough year.
Simply put, this team is bereft of talent and effectively operating with about 20% less spending power than most others. At quarterback, their options are either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler following Derek Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason.
The division around them is also getting stronger: Atlanta should improve with Michael Penix Jr., Carolina appears more competent with Bryce Young entering Year 2, and Tampa Bay has proven to be a consistently competitive team.
The betting market has already reacted, knocking this win total down a full game from 6.5 to 5.5, but the under is still worth playing for 1 unit.
Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110)
The Chargers have everything I look for when backing an NFL team on their preseason win total: a great coach and proven winner in Jim Harbaugh, a top-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert — whom film scouts still rank near the top five despite modest stats — and a strong offensive line paired with a reliable running game.
The reason Herbert's numbers don't jump off the page is largely because the team has emphasized balance. The Chargers added Najee Harris this offseason, and he's never rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He's durable and will now run behind the best offensive line of his career.
On top of that, the division is due to regress. The Chiefs survived last season by winning an unsustainable number of one-score games, including both of their matchups against the Chargers. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, and six of those have been one-score games.
Now, looking at the Chargers' schedule, there's a slight wrinkle in the timing of when to bet this line. They open the season at home against Kansas City, where they're already 2.5-point underdogs. Their next three games are at the Raiders, vs. the Broncos, and at the Giants — all games where they'll be favored.
I recommend placing a half-unit bet now, then revisiting after Week 1 regardless of the outcome. If the Chargers lose, the win total should remain at 9.5, possibly with plus-money odds. If they win, the number may move to 10.5 or become a heavily juiced over 9.5, both of which I'd still feel comfortable playing.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
a minute ago
- CBS News
Lions have high expectations as they open NFL preseason in Hall of Fame game
Fifteen wins. No. 1 seed. Super Bowl betting favorites. The Detroit Lions fell way short last season, going one-and-done in the playoffs after having the best regular season in franchise history. They still have a loaded roster stacked with talent and plenty of unfinished business. The Lions kick off their quest for their first Super Bowl title when they take on the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night in the Hall of Fame game, which opens the NFL's preseason schedule. The Chargers are also coming off a season that ended with a loss in their playoff opener, a wild-card game against Houston. But it was a different vibe in Los Angeles, where Jim Harbaugh came in and led a six-win improvement. Harbaugh, who led Michigan to a national championship before leaving for the NFL, guided the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl in his second season in 2012. Can he do it again with the Chargers? They haven't won any titles since capturing the 1963 AFL championship. Expectations are high for both teams, but it's a long road to the Vince Lombardi trophy. It starts in the exhibition opener, two days ahead of the Pro Football Hall of Fame induction ceremony. "It's a new season, it's a new beginning," Lions coach Dan Campbell said as he enters his fifth season in charge. "You understand what that road looks like and there's going to be nothing easy about it. But I think it's — every year you do this and you just realize, 'Hey man, just get in.' Win this division — that's always going to be the goal. Find a way to win your division because now you're automatically in and then once you're in, it's the matchup. And don't worry about the — OK, maybe we have to go on the road, so be it, or if something happens. "You take your best unit, you put your best practice that you can together, find the guys that you're going to use to try to go win that game and then let it ride. No, I'm still as enthusiastic as ever. I know these guys are. There's a price to be paid to get yourself back into the dance, back into the tournament, and that will never change and if we let that slide at all, then we're going to be sitting here at home in January and that's not what we want." Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Penei Sewell and the rest of Detroit's star-studded offense won't see any action against Los Angeles. Hendon Hooker and Kyle Allen will play quarterback for the Lions as they battle to be Jared Goff's backup. Justin Herbert and the Chargers' veterans also will watch from the sideline. Trey Lance will start at quarterback for Los Angeles. Lance, the 25-year-old third overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft, is on his third team after stops in San Francisco and Dallas. "He's had a heck of a camp," Harbaugh said. "I just want to get Trey Lance game experience. With his career and then in college, he doesn't have as much as most guys." Rookie DJ Uiagalelei, who signed with the Chargers as an undrafted free agent, is scheduled to play the second half. Veteran Taylor Heinicke will serve as the emergency third quarterback. Rookie running back Omarion Hampton, selected by Los Angeles 22nd overall and wide receiver Tre Harris, a second-round pick, are expected to play. But Detroit's top two draft picks, defensive tackle Tyleik Williams and guard Tate Ratledge, aren't scheduled to play. The game features the debut of Detroit's two new coordinators. OC John Morton replaced Ben Johnson, who left to coach Chicago. DC Kelvin Sheppard took over for Aaron Glenn, who went to coach the New York Jets. "I've said this before, it hurts to lose two guys that, man, have been here from the beginning, have a lot of trust and faith in," Campbell said. "There's a lot of communication that goes that's not even said because once you get to that, you understand each other. A look, a nod, body demeanor says it all. And that's just a little bit of what we have to gain together between myself, Johnny Morton and Shepp. But that takes a minute, it takes time. We'll get it, it'll come. That's what practice is about, that's what preseason games early in the year, all of that. We'll be good.
Associated Press
24 minutes ago
- Associated Press
ESPN cuts ties with Shannon Sharpe following settlement of sexual assault lawsuit, AP source says
Hall of Fame tight end-turned-broadcaster Shannon Sharpe will not return to ESPN, a person with knowledge of the decision told The Associated Press on Wednesday. The decision comes less than two weeks after Sharpe resolved a lawsuit that accused him of sexually assaulting a woman during their relationship. The person spoke to the AP on condition of anonymity because the decision has not been announced. Sharpe's last appearance on ESPN was in late April, when the lawsuit was filed in Nevada. No details of the settlement were released. The lawsuit had sought $50 million. The 57-year-old Sharpe called the accusations 'false and disruptive' at the time they were levied and hoped to return in time for the NFL season. Instead, ESPN opted to move on from the brash four-time All-Pro tight end who won three Super Bowls during his 14-year career. Sharpe joined ESPN in 2023 and signed a multiyear contract in 2024. He served as a panelist on the network's morning show 'First Take.' Sharpe has been a staple on TV and social media since retiring in 2003. He joined CBS in 2004 as an analyst on 'The NFL Today' studio show before leaving in 2013. Three years later, he joined forces with Skip Bayless on the FS1 sports debate show 'Undisputed.' Sharpe left in 2023 after Bayless took a shot at Sharpe's NFL playing career during a debate a couple of months earlier. Sharpe still has his 'Club Shay Shay' and 'Nightcap' podcasts with former NFL wide receiver Chad Johnson. Inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2011, Sharpe retired as the NFL's all-time leader among tight ends in receptions (815), yards receiving (10,060) and touchdowns (62). Those records have been broken. Sterling Sharpe , Shannon's older brother, will be inducted on Saturday. ___ AP NFL:
Yahoo
28 minutes ago
- Yahoo
3 Stocks That Shoppers Love But Wall Street Hates… And That Could Soar From Here
A new meme stock rally has emerged, potentially surpassing the 2021 craze in scale, according to WallStreetBets founder Jaime Rogozinski. Struggling retailers and consumer brands, such as Kohl's (KSS), GoPro (GPRO), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT) surged last week, apparently driven by retail investors mobilizing online. American Eagle (AEO) stock jumped 10% after announcing Sydney Sweeney as a brand ambassador, exemplifying how celebrity endorsements now drive trading. Meme stock traders often disregard fundamentals, instead supporting brands based on emotional or ideological reasons. For example, Trump Media (DJT) is valued at $4 billion yet generates just $1 million in quarterly revenue. More News from Barchart Morgan Stanley Says Nvidia Has 'Exceptional' Strength. Should You Buy NVDA Stock Here? Dear MicroStrategy Stock Fans, Mark Your Calendars for July 31 2 Growth Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Soar 74% to 159% Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! If you are looking for more meme mania, here are three consumer brands that could rally from current levels, given that they are highly shorted. Meme Stock #1: Kohl's Kohl's stock erupted last Tuesday, surging as much as 105% in early trading before closing 37% higher on July 22 at $14.34. The surge appears to be driven primarily by social media hype rather than fundamental factors. With nearly 45% of Kohl's float sold short, it became a prime target for retail traders seeking to trigger a short squeeze. Trading was temporarily halted due to extreme volatility as the stock oscillated wildly between gains and losses. Kohl's business remains troubled despite the stock euphoria. Its Q1 earnings call revealed ongoing challenges, with comparable sales declining 3.9% and leadership instability following the termination of CEO Ashley Buchanan. Market experts warn that meme stock rallies typically see companies collapse back to pre-surge levels once the frenzy subsides, making ongoing gains unlikely. Out of the 12 analysts covering KSS stock, six recommend 'Hold,' one recommends 'Moderate Sell,' and five recommend 'Strong Sell.' The average stock price target for KSS stock is $7.69, 32% below the current price. Meme Stock #2: Beyond Meat Down almost 99% from its all-time highs, Beyond Meat (BYND) stock has nearly 40% of its float sold short and may be on the watchlist of meme stock traders. In Q1, Beyond Meat reported sales of $68.7 million, down more than 9% year over year amid challenges in the plant-based meat category. It posted a gross loss of $1.1 million, marking a sharp reversal from the $3.7 million profit achieved in the same period last year. Volume decreased 11.2% year-over-year, driven by weak demand in U.S. retail and foodservice channels, distribution losses as retailers moved products from refrigerated to frozen sections, and broader macroeconomic pressures affecting consumer spending. CEO Ethan Brown acknowledged this represented 'a deviation from the previous 2 quarters,' when the company had shown signs of recovery. Moreover, Beyond Meat withdrew its full-year guidance, citing elevated uncertainty. Despite operational challenges, Brown remains focused on cost reduction and improving consumer perception through new marketing campaigns, emphasizing a commitment to profitability over growth. Out of the eight analysts covering BYND stock, four recommend 'Hold' and four recommend 'Strong Sell.' The average target price for BYND stock is $2.71, 16% below the current price. Meme Stock #3: 1-800 Flowers The final meme stock on the list is 1-800 Flowers (FLWS), which has nearly 73% of its float sold short. Two analysts cover FLWS stock, with one recommending a 'Strong Buy' and the other recommending a 'Hold.' The average target price for FLWS stock is $8.50, 44% above the current price. 1-800-Flowers delivered a massive Q3 earnings miss, posting a loss of $0.71 per share against analyst expectations for a loss of $0.34, while revenue plunged 12.6% to $331.5 million. CEO Jim McCann acknowledged significant self-inflicted wounds, particularly a 'colossal screw up' with the company's order management system implementation that cost $11 million over two quarters and disrupted customer service during the critical holiday period. The Consumer Floral and Gifts segment declined 11.4%, while Gourmet Foods plummeted 18.2%. In response to these challenges, the company unveiled its ambitious 'Celebrations Wave' strategy, representing what McCann called their 'sixth wave of innovation.' The initiative aims to create a comprehensive celebrations ecosystem using AI and personalized experiences to reduce customer acquisition costs and increase engagement. The company withdrew full-year guidance amid macroeconomic uncertainty and rising marketing costs, with net debt jumping to $75 million from $9 million year-over-year, highlighting the urgent need for a strategic overhaul. On the date of publication, Aditya Raghunath did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
