MLB Trade Deadline: Merrill Kelly, Seth Lugo, and other starting pitchers who could be on the block

NBC Sports

3 days ago

The MLB trade deadline is just a week away, with the clock running out at 6 p.m. ET on Thursday, July 31st. I thought I would help us prepare for that moment by creating a little cheatsheet of starting pitchers who could be moved at the deadline, and others who might find themselves in starting roles after teammates leave town.
This is not meant to be an analytically-focused document. My goal is to give you as many names of pitchers who may be on a new team by August so that you can begin to think about what might come to pass. I'll offer some quick thoughts on whether I'm interested at all in where this player ends up or not, but this is mainly about allowing us to get a better sense of the starting pitcher landscape.
Starting Pitchers on Expiring Contracts
I think Lugo will be the best pitcher moved at the deadline. He has a $15 million player option for 2026, and the Royals have to assume that he'll exercise that and try to cash in on one more big payday before his age 36 season begins. I don't think the Royals will be able to afford him when he does that.
The Diamondbacks claim they're not selling at the deadline, but they really should be and likely will be once this week ends and they see how far out of the playoff race they are. Gallen and Kelly are both free agents at the end of the season, so trading at least one of them makes sense for Arizona to at least get something for them before they potentially walk. While Gallen has fallen off the last two years, Kelly has been sneaky good and could be a great addition to a contender's rotation.
We know that the Orioles are looking to trade away players who are not under control next season. That's Eflin, Morton, and Sugano. There's a strong chance that all three of them are dealt. Morton has really turned it around since being removed from the rotation in April, and we know that he can be an impactful starter when the curve is working. Eflin has been a consistent starter for the last four years, and if he looks good in his return from the IL this week, then his market could heat up a bit as well.
Soroka seems like a lock to be traded at the deadline. He's on a one-year contract, and the Nationals will look to get something for him rather than let him walk for nothing. The 27-year-old also has a bit of helium as a second-half breakout candidate thanks to a 3.89 xFIP and 3.57 SIERA that suggest his 5.10 ERA is not indicative of how good he's been. Of course, Washington would love him to flash at least one strong start before the deadline.
The Reds are in an interesting situation. They are two games over .500, which is great, but they are also 8.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central and 3.5 games out of the Wild Card. Will they make a push for that final spot or stand pat? Can they make a push while also dealing away Nick Martinez, who will be a free agent at the end of the season? Martinez has been effective as both a starter and a reliever in his career, and is the type of versatile veteran that a contending team would love.
The White Sox are certainly sellers, and they're almost certain to trade away the two veterans they added earlier this season. Houser was signed in April after he was cut by the Rangers, and Civale came over in the trade for Andrew Vaughn. Both have pitched well enough that they could be a low-cost move for a contending team to add a back-end rotation piece at the deadline.
It's odd to suggest that the Brewers would trade away a starting pitcher when they currently have one of the best records in baseball, but they also have too many starting pitchers. As of right now, they don't even have Logan Henderson, Tobias Myers, and Nestor Cortes in their rotation. They could easily trade away a starter and still have a tremendous rotation. Cortes and Quintana are both veterans with playoff experience, which would be attractive to other teams, but also be attractive to the Brewers. They just feel like the most likely pieces to be moved.
Who would have thought that Patrick Corbin would have trade value in 2025, but who also would have thought that he would pitch to a 3.91 ERA at 36 years old. The Rangers would almost certainly take what they can get for a pending free agent that they never expected to rely on this season anyway.
Heaney is in a similar situation to Corbin, except he's actually pitched worse with a 5.03 ERA in 102 innings for the Pirates. Still, he's a known commodity around the league, and some team may want to add a veteran left-hander to their rotation.
Hey look, another veteran lefty that could be had at the deadline. Anderson has an elite changeup and a career 4.28 ERA, which will always make him interesting to a team that needs a lefty for their rotation. The Angels should have traded him at the deadline last year when he had a 3.81 ERA, but, well, it's the Angels.
I'm convinced that Zack Littell is being traded. It's just the perfect Rays move. Yes, they're in playoff contention, and, yes, Littell has been solid for them, but he's also a free agent at the end of the season, and the Rays don't like getting nothing for a player who leaves them. They could trade Littell now for bullpen help or a high-upside lower-minors prospect and then slot Joe Boyle into his spot in the rotation and likely have a better starting rotation while getting back a controllable asset. It just seems like a move they'd lock in.
The Twins have fallen out of contention and are now looking to deal away players who are not locked into contracts with the team. Paddack seemed to be on his way out early in the season, but he put together a solid stretch in May and June. Unfortunately, his production has dipped of late, which may make him less enticing to teams looking for starting pitching.
Multi-Year Starting Pitchers
I don't think either one of these guys gets moved. Yes, I guess it's feasible given that their names have come up in rumors, but I just wouldn't expect it.
I also don't think Peralta is being traded. Yes, the Brewers have plenty of starting pitcher options, and they moved on from Corbin Burnes when they felt like they couldn't re-sign him, but Peralta won't be a free agent next season, and this Brewers team has the best record in baseball. Maybe they trade Peralta next year or in the offseason.
I think it's far more likely that Eovaldi gets dealt. He has two years remaining on his contract, but he'll be 36 years old next season and is paid $29 million for 2026 and $24 million for 2027. The Rangers love him because he's good, but also because he's a vocal leader, which allows Jacob deGrom to quietly go about his business without having to be a mouthpiece for the team. That's a role deGrom loves to play. I think that will cause the Rangers to keep Eovaldi, but he's certainly older than many of the young stars on the team, so maybe they move him to try and get younger with their pitching staff.
The Pirates are cheap, so they probably don't want Keller's salary on the books anymore. He has three years and about $55 million left on his deal, which won't impede a team that has seen him flash the upside of an SP2 at times. With so many pitchers flourishing away from Pittsburgh, there are likely teams out there who would take a gamble to see if they can optimize his pitch mix to have him hit that upside more consistently. With guys like Ryan and Peralta unlikely to be moved, Keller might be the best controllable starter on the market (other than one I'll mention in Miami).
Bradley's name has come up in some trade rumors of late, and, like I mentioned with Littell, he could be a perfect fit for the Rays BOTH selling and buying at the deadline. Bradley is 24 years old and has one more year before he even enters arbitration. Then he'll be under team control until 2029. However, his salary will begin to rise starting in 2027 when his arbitration years begin, and the Rays have not been able to get things to click for Bradley. They could potentially move him for a sizable return and know that they have guys like Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour to fill his spot in the rotation.
Coming into the season, I think Alcantara would have been everybody's pick to be the best starting pitcher available at the deadline, but he has really tanked his value with a poor season coming off Tommy John surgery. The Marlins could still trade him, but a team would have to make an offer that suggests they believe Alcantara can get back to near Cy Young levels. If not, the Marlins will just hold on and hope he increases his value next spring. Which means Cabrera could be the starter that Miami moves this year. He has changed his arm slot and gone more sinker-heavy this year, which has really helped his overall performance; however, he has never been a consistent performer at the big league level and has also battled injuries. This might be a chance for Miami to sell high.
Abel recaptured a lot of value this season after a mediocre year in Double-A last year. He struggled a bit at the MLB level, but he's just 23 years old and has the type of upside that teams would be attracted to. He's essentially a top prospect pitcher that's also MLB-ready, like Kyle Harrison, who was a key component in the Rafael Devers deal. The Phillies will have a fully locked-in rotation once Aaron Nola comes back, and Andrew Painter is at Triple-A, so perhaps they would use Abel as a trade piece to bring in a big-time bat, like Jarren Duran, or a reliever, like Emmanuel Clase or Cade Smith.
No, Detmers is not currently a starting pitcher, but there are certainly teams out there that would love to trade for the 26-year-old and put him back in the rotation. Still, he's arbitration-eligible for three more seasons and is pitching well for the Angels as a reliever, so I can't see them trading him.
Springs is the exact type of pitcher we'll joke about not having value, but actually does. He has a career 3.60 ERA in 427.2 big league innings and has a 3.11 career ERA in 280.1 innings as a starting pitcher. Teams are going to look at that from a pitcher who is owed only $10.5 million in each of the next two seasons and see that as a better deal than anybody they might be able to land on the free-agent market.