Democrats fail to overturn ruling that tax cuts in GOP megabill don't add to deficit
Democrats failed to defeat the ruling by the Senate chair, which Republicans control, that the chamber's 940-page One Big, Beautiful Bill Act does not violate the 1974 Congressional Budget Act by using a controversial 'current policy' baseline to score the extension of President Trump's expiring tax cuts as not adding to the deficit.
If the tax portion of the bill were scored on a 'current law' baseline, which assumes the 2017 Trump tax cuts would expire at the end of 2025, then it would add an estimated $3.5 trillion to federal deficits between 2025-34 and would add to deficits after 2034 — beyond the 10-year budget window allowed by the Byrd Rule.
Scored this way, the Republican bill would fail the rule, which governs what legislation is eligible to pass the Senate with a simple-majority vote on the reconciliation fast track, and Republicans would be forced to rewrite large parts of the measure.
But when scored with a 'current policy' baseline, the Congressional Budget Office projects the tax cuts in the Finance Committee's section of the bill would increase deficits by not more than $1.5 trillion between 2025-34 and would not increase on-budget deficits after 2034.
Democrats argued a current policy baseline had never been used before in a budget reconciliation bill, and had never been used to score an extension of expiring tax cuts as not adding to future deficits, and therefore was not in compliance with the Senate's Byrd Rule.
And Democrats highlighted over the weekend that most of the Republican reconciliation package uses a 'current law' baseline to project the cost of the legislation.
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) accused Republicans of 'deploying fake math and budgetary hocus-pocus to make it seem like their billionaire giveaways don't cost anything.'
Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) accused Republicans of 'going nuclear' to blow up the Senate rules so they can make Trump's 2017 tax cuts permanent.
'This is the nuclear option. It's just hidden behind a whole lot of Washington, D.C., lingo,' Wyden said on the floor.
Wyden pointed out through a parliamentary inquiry that the Finance portion of the bill used two different baselines, current policy and current law.
Senate Democrats had tried to schedule a meeting with Republican Budget Committee staff and with the parliamentarian to discuss whether using a current policy baseline violated Senate precedent and the Byrd Rule, but Republicans 'flat-out refused' to participate in such a meeting, according to a person familiar with the conversations.
Senate Budget Committee Chair Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said Monday morning that Republicans are not overruling the parliamentarian and asserted the parliamentarian has said it is up to him as Budget chair to set the baseline.
And he argued Democrats in the past have supported the use of a current policy baseline to project the cost of legislation, although it hasn't been done before for a budget reconciliation package.
He noted former Democratic Budget Committee Chair Kent Conrad (N.D.) used a current policy baseline for a past farm bill.
Republicans also point out former President Obama's budget office supported using a current policy baseline to score the extension of the expiring tax cuts from the George W. Bush era at the end of 2012.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) said on the floor Monday that former Obama Director of the Office of Management and Budget Jeff Zients supported using the current policy baseline for the 2012 fiscal cliff deal.
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