An Isolated Iran Looks to BRICS for Allies, Testing a New World Order
Starting Sunday in Rio de Janeiro, Iran will join a two-day meeting of the BRICS group that includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and other countries. It will be a chance for Iran, a newcomer to the group, to show it has powerful allies, even as it faces sanctions and threats of more military strikes over its nuclear program.
After Israel and the United States launched military strikes on Iran last month, the BRICS group issued a statement expressing 'grave concern' and calling the attacks a breach of international law and the United Nations Charter. Still the alliance, whose members represent more than half of the world's population, stopped short of outright criticizing Israel or the United States.
Behind the scenes, divisions over how harshly BRICS should condemn the strikes have tested the alliance's ambitions to rebalance global power dynamics by offering a counterweight to the West.
'There is no alignment whatsoever on Iran,' said Oliver Stuenkel, an expert on BRICS and an associate professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, a Brazilian university. 'So the solution was this very inoffensive position.'
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Associated Press
an hour ago
- Associated Press
A fragile ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war tests the harmony of Los Angeles' huge Iranian community
LOS ANGELES (AP) — 'Tehrangeles' in West Los Angeles is home to the largest Iranian community outside Iran. This cultural enclave, also known as Little Persia, is where Iranian Muslims, Jews, Christians, Zoroastrians and Bahai have peacefully coexisted for decades. But the recent war between Israel and Iran — a bloody, 12-day conflict paused by a fragile ceasefire — has brought up religious tensions and political debates that rarely surface in this culturally harmonious environment. To complicate matters, the U.S. — an ally of Israel — bombed Iran during the war. Many Iranian Jews in the diaspora have viewed the onset of the war with 'anxious glee,' said Daniel Bral, a West Los Angeles resident whose grandfather, Moossa Bral, was the sole Jewish member of parliament in prerevolutionary Iran. He sees family members and others in the community rejoicing at the possibility of their 'tormentor' being vanquished. But Bral feels differently. 'I'm just nervous and am completely rattled by everything that is happening,' he said. 'I understand and sympathize with people's hope for regime change. But I worry about the safety of civilians and the efficacy of the operation removing Iran as a nuclear threat.' But Bral doesn't see the war itself as a divisive issue in the diaspora because antagonism for the current regime is common across religious groups. 'This hatred for the regime actually unifies Muslims and Jews,' he said. Cultural enclave offers a sense of grounding Kamran Afary, a professor of communication at California State University, Los Angeles, who emigrated from Iran in the 1970s and cowrote a book about identities in Iranian diaspora, said the community, for the most part, has nursed a spirit of tolerance and respect, much like his interfaith family. While Afary is spiritual but not religious, other members of his family practice Judaism, Islam and the Bahai faith. 'Interfaith marriage used to be fraught, but even that is common now,' he said. Afary says for him, Tehrangeles, with its row of grocery stores, ice cream and kebab shops, restaurants, bakeries and bookstores, offers solace and a sense of grounding in his culture and roots. There are about half a million Iranian Americans in the Greater Los Angeles region. The largest wave of Iranians migrated to the area after Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown in 1979 and Ayatollah Khomeini assumed control, establishing the Islamic Republic of Iran. West Los Angeles, in particular, has the largest concentration of Iranian Jews outside Iran. A test for long-held bonds Diane Winston, professor of media and religion at the University of Southern California, said Israel's recent fight against the regime in Iran could test relationships between Iranian Jews and Muslims. 'Muslims, who otherwise would be happy to see regime change, might have felt a little differently about it because their antipathy for Zionism is strong,' she said. Winston also observed that in the diaspora, which is concentrated in wealthy cities like Beverly Hills and Westwood, it is not just religion or culture that brings people together, but also their elevated social status. 'They go to the same schools, parties and cultural events,' she said. 'In general, Iranian Muslims and Jews are not quite as religious as their counterparts back home. Los Angeles is a city where there is room to be orthodox, but also being less religious is not a problem. The less religious Jews and Muslims are, the less antipathy they may have toward each other.' A time of fear and uncertainty Tanaz Golshan was 2 when her family left Iran in 1986. She serves as the senior vice president of Caring for Jews in Need, the Jewish Federation Los Angeles' service arm. She is also the organization's liaison to the Iranian Jewish community. Judaism for Iranians is 'more cultural and familial,' Golshan said. Getting together Friday for Shabbat means having Persian Jewish dishes like 'gondi,' which are dumplings served in soup. 'In my family, we didn't grow up too religious,' she said. 'We don't think about religion when we go to a restaurant or market. You'll find people in both communities that are extreme and don't want anything to do with the other. But in general, we have a lot of love and respect for each other.' And yet this is proving to be a tense and scary time for Iranian Jews in the diaspora, she said. 'What happens globally can affect security locally,' Golshan said, adding the federation's helpline has received calls asking if there are any threats to local Jewish institutions, she said. 'There is real fear that temples and community centers could become targets.' On Monday, Golshan's organization and others hosted more than 350 community members for a virtual event titled, L.A. United: Iranian and Israeli Communities in Solidarity. A call for regime change in Iran Reactions to the war have been nuanced, regardless of religious affiliations. Arezo Rashidian, whose family is Muslim, is a Southern California political activist who favors regime change in Iran. She supports the return of Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the shah, who has declared he is ready to lead the country's transition to a democratic government. Rashidian said she has never been able to visit Iran because of her activism. The only hope for her return would be for the current regime to fall. This is why the ceasefire has stirred mixed feelings for her and many others in the community, she said. 'It's been an emotional roller coaster. No one wants a war, but we were on the brink of seeing this regime collapse. We were so close,' she said. Lior Sternfeld, professor of history and Jewish studies at Penn State University, said Iranian Jews in the diaspora identify with Iran, Israel and the U.S., and that these identities are 'often not in harmony.' 'They don't see the Islamic Republic as Iran any more, but an entity to be demolished,' he said. 'They see Israel more as a religious homeland.' President Donald Trump enjoyed strong support in the diaspora and has now upset his backers in the community because he has stated he is not interested in regime change, Sternfeld said. Desire for unity and common ground There is a push, particularly in the younger generation, for peace and understanding among religious groups in the diaspora. Bral says he is engaged in peacebuilding work through his writing and advocacy. 'We are cousins at the end of the day, as clichéd and corny as that sounds,' he said. Bral's friend Rachel Sumekh, whose parents emigrated from Iran, grew up Jewish in the San Fernando Valley. Sumekh hosts dinner parties with her diverse group of friends as a way of widening her circle across religious lines. In December, she hosted a gathering for Yalda, an ancient Persian festival with Zoroastrian roots, which is observed on the winter solstice as celebrants look forward to brighter days. Last year, Yalda, which also marks the victory of light over darkness, coincided with Hanukkah, the Jewish festival of lights. 'We created a new tradition bringing people of both traditions together to emphasize how much we have in common,' Sumekh said. 'This war is just a reminder that as much as our day-to-day lives may be separate, there is still a lot we share in terms of culture and as a people.' ___ Associated Press religion coverage receives support through the AP's collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content.
The Hill
an hour ago
- The Hill
Never mind what you heard — the BRICS summit failed before it began
The BRICS are falling apart. The promising economic group — originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — has increased both its membership and its internal rivalries. And the leaders of Russia and China, the group's two superpowers, are not expected to attend this weekend's Summit in Rio de Janeiro. China's authoritarian government is going through a rough patch, and I'm not talking about the Chinese real estate crisis, its lack of purchasing power, its high youth unemployment, low population growth or the economic slowdown that makes its recent 10 percent annual growth feel like a distant memory. No, the new crisis is linked to a strange earthquake prompted by President Xi Jinping, who often disappears for several weeks at a time and announces the renewal of an anti-corruption fight to purge 'undisciplined' military personnel or eliminate potential political adversaries. Gen. Miao Hua, vice admiral the People's Liberation Army, is one of the latest top officials to be purged by the political and military architecture of the Communist regime. Miao was a senior admiral and the director of the political work department of the Central Military Commission, which helps ensure loyalty within the armed forces. Xi's political maneuvers also affect generals and scientists in missiles, nuclear programs and aerospace. China plays a divisive and discordant role in BRICS. Its ambition for greater power and promotion of its geopolitical strategy against the West has led it to double the number of BRICS members, regardless of factors such as economic strength, political stability or positive contributions to the group. In this pursuit, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Indonesia, Ethiopia and Iran have joined as new members. China has also weakened BRICS through its rivalry with India. China maintains close political, military and commercial ties with Pakistan, India's main adversary. Added to this, a silent trade war has deepened, in which China hinders India's industry, generating tensions between two countries. The other BRICS members are not exempt from challenges and confrontations. After President Trump's return to the White House, the so-called leadership of the Global South appears divided and defeated. In April, the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Summit failed to pass a joint resolution, unable to reach agreements to promote the integration of Brazil and South Africa as permanent members of the U.N. Security Council. The meeting was a bust. The BRICS conflicts do not end there. Vladimir Putin cannot attend Rio in person because there is an international arrest warrant out for him for war crimes in Ukraine. Iran and Saudi Arabia are not necessarily best friends; Ethiopia and Egypt have a tense relationship over the Nile. And the list goes on. The host country, Brazil, also has its own valley of shadows. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has lost international support due to his radical pro-Iran and pro-Russia stances. Domestically, polls show Lula with only 28 percent approval. The Brazilian economy is a disaster, with high interest rates that make credit more expensive, reduce consumption and slow growth. Brazil seeks to promote the candidacy of a woman for U.N. Secretary General and, at the local level, Lula has expressed potential interest in a fourth presidential term to 'prevent the return of the right.' BRICS has utterly failed to break the hegemony of the dollar, and the New Development Bank is a white elephant that lacks the resources or financial strength of Western, U.S.-backed institutions such as the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund. The BRICS summit has already failed before its launch. Perhaps we can expect some agreements on artificial intelligence, the promotion of renewable energy and a general, watered-down call for dialogue and peace in the Middle East and Ukraine. But there won't be much more than that — it's just another brick in the wall. Arturo McFields is an exiled journalist, former Nicaraguan ambassador to the Organization of American States, and a former member of the Norwegian Peace Corps. He is an alumnus of the National Defense University's Security and Defense Seminar and the Harvard Leadership course.
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
News Analysis: Israel declared triumph, but Iran's nuclear future still looms
After a hastily cobbled together ceasefire between Israel and Iran took hold on June 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu jubilantly declared that the 'existential threats' of Iran's nuclear program and ballistic missile arsenal had been destroyed. The 'historic victory,' he said, would 'abide for generations.' But nearly two weeks after President Trump deployed 30,000-pound bombs and Tomahawk missiles against Iran's nuclear facilities, questions linger over how abiding that victory will prove to be. Even as U.S. and Israeli intelligence services continue assessing the strikes, and the White House insists Tehran may acquiesce to a grand bargain for peace in the region, analysts say the hostilities were less a finale than a prelude to the next act. Read more: Timeline of tensions and hostilities between Israel and Iran 'There will be a sequel. The war remains an unfinished project, for both sides,' said Bader Al-Saif, a professor of history at Kuwait University. Israel, he added, 'wants to see the end of the Iranian regime or a more serious decapitation of its capabilities.' For the Islamic Republic's leaders, who have defied and antagonized Israel — and the U.S. — for decades, that they emerged bruised but not beaten serves as proof they should continue. 'Regardless of the superiority of Israeli and American firepower, they're still there,' Al-Saif said. 'And they're there for the long run.' Israel's 12-day campaign is the first time the long-running shadow conflict between the Middle East's military superpowers exploded into open warfare, decapitating the upper echelons of Iran's military and nuclear leadership. Israel's spy service conducted elaborate sabotage operations on Iranian soil. Wave after wave of airstrikes killed hundreds of people and turned vital installations, infrastructure and city neighborhoods into piles of rubble. From the moment Trump announced the B-2 Spirit bomber strikes, he and other members of his administration have repeated the word 'obliterated' when describing their impact. Though an initial damage analysis expressed skepticism, a consensus emerged that Iran's enrichment and weaponization infrastructure, including centrifuges and uranium metalworking equipment, was destroyed or rendered inoperable. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview Tuesday with CBS News that Iran's Atomic Energy Organization was still evaluating the impact at the Fordo site, 'but what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged.' How enduring the setback will be to Iran's nuclear ambitions is another matter. Araghchi added that Iran's "peaceful nuclear program has turned into a matter of national pride and glory' and that 'people will not easily back down from enrichment.' Read more: Will the ceasefire stick? And is Iran's nuclear program really destroyed? "One cannot obliterate the technology and science for enrichment through bombings," Araghchi said. "If there is this will on our part, and the will exists in order to once again make progress in this industry, we will be able to expeditiously repair the damages and make up for the lost time." Iranian officials put the death toll of the war at 935 people, including 38 children and 132 women; they did not specify how many of the men were civilians. The U.S., European powers and Iran signed a deal in 2015 conditioning sanctions relief on Iran restricting enrichment of uranium to 3.67% (enough for civilian use), giving up significant amounts of its uranium stockpile and allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to monitor facilities. Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, saying it didn't go far enough, and he imposed what he termed 'maximum pressure' sanctions on Iran. He began his second term with efforts to negotiate a new agreement; Israel began its attack on Iran as talks were underway. Experts believe Iran still has centrifuges it manufactured before the war but had never installed, as well as a stockpile of uranium enriched to 20% and 60%, sufficient for 10 warheads. 'Bottom line is that Iran has the foundational elements that it could use to reconstitute an enrichment effort,' said Eric Brewer, deputy vice president of the Nuclear Materials Security Program for Nuclear Threat Initiative, a Washington think tank. Weaponizing that uranium is a murkier prospect, he added. Israel killed 14 veteran Iranian nuclear scientists, but the know-how is likely to have remained, Brewer said. 'Iran is clearly not willing to abandon its nuclear program," he said. "It's a question of what form that reconstituted program will take, and how long Iran needs to fulfill it.' Meanwhile, Tehran has already taken steps limiting inspectors' access to its nuclear program. On Wednesday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed into law a bill suspending cooperation with the IAEA, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog, until guarantees are given for the security of nuclear facilities and scientists. The 12-member Guardian Council, half of whom are appointed by Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, approved it the next day. Continuing with any enrichment is likely to be a nonstarter for Trump, who says he 'without question' would bomb any Iranian rebuilding effort. The Israelis too have threatened to strike again should they perceive a threat. But that calculus thrusts all sides into a perpetual game of cat-and-mouse, with Iran going to ever-greater lengths to conceal its activities while the U.S. and Israel keep watching for Tehran's maneuverings. Israel has employed a similar playbook in Lebanon. Though it accepted a ceasefire with the militant group Hezbollah in November, it maintains an almost omniscient presence over its neighbor, with a raft of drones, spies, signals intelligence and artificial intelligence proving effective at sussing out Hezbollah activity. Israel's military has launched thousands of attacks targeting any move by the Lebanese militant group to restore its capabilities. 'Israelis refer to it as mowing the grass, and the idea is that they can do this endlessly,' said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control specialist and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey. 'But I'm skeptical of the long-term success of this endeavor [with Iran] because you can't count on that level of penetration and access being good forever.' Indeed, Iran is a more challenging target, roughly 158 times larger than Lebanon and more than 1,000 miles farther from Israel. Brewer, the nuclear proliferation expert, added that Iran would probably opt to hide new facilities even deeper underground to defend against U.S. "bunker buster" attacks. 'To use the analogy, to effectively mow the grass, you have to know where that grass is growing back,' he said. Iran says it will respond if the U.S. and Israel were to strike again. And it has shown it can exact a price. During the war, it lobbed successive fusillades of ballistic missiles, and though most were felled en route or were destroyed by Israel's defense network, those that got through left destruction unseen in Israel for decades. Health authorities say 29 Israeli civilians were killed and several buildings were destroyed or so damaged they need to be demolished. Israel's tax authority says more than 40,000 compensation claims have been filed. Also, keeping Israel's defensive net online is no easy task because it relies on 'ferociously expensive' interceptors, Lewis added. When Israel depleted its supplies, the U.S. had to step in, firing a year's production run of Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missiles to intercept Iran's projectiles. 'It's almost a war of attrition, because if the Israelis wait to intercept, then they're on the wrong side of the cost curve,' Lewis said. Negotiations with Iran are unlikely to be easy in a postwar atmosphere of distrust. In his interview, Araghchi said the door to diplomacy 'will never slam shut,' but he cast doubt on statements by Trump administration officials that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over its nuclear program would restart as early as next week. "In order for us to decide to reengage, we will have to first ensure that America will not revert back to targeting us in a military attack during the negotiations," Araghchi said. At the same time, there is little appetite in Iran for a grand deal that — as envisioned by Trump — aims to resolve all conflicts with Israel in the region, said Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based Chatham House think tank. 'That's wishful thinking after a consequential war that has damaged Iran's defense doctrine and one where Israel hasn't seen its strategic objectives met," Vakil said. 'We're on a time-out, and without really determined focus and deliberate diplomacy, this will be a very long intermission while both sides regroup and think about the next round.' Sign up for Essential California for news, features and recommendations from the L.A. Times and beyond in your inbox six days a week. This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
